Tuesday briefing: Some Democrats are grimly convinced that Trump is going to win. What does the evidence show?

In today's newsletter: The polls are neck and neck. So why are some Kamala Harris supporters convinced the Republicans have the election in the bag?

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Good morning. With a week to go until America votes, the polls consistently show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat.

The nerds who simulate the race hundreds of times to model the likelihood of each result are consistently finding extraordinarily even chances between the two. And nothing that happens - not assassination attempts, Kamalamentum, convention speeches, running mate selections, celebrity endorsements, multi-million-dollar political ads, the debate, erratic rally performances, or plausible accusations of fascist tendencies - seems to change anything for more than a minute. The election, in summary, looks too close to call.

Budget | The government is expected to announce an increase of about 4% to NHS funding, an increase that could translate to about 7bn for the health budget in England. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that the money would deliver more surgical hubs and radiotherapy machines in a drive to add 40,000 appointments each week.

Middle East | Israel's parliament has voted to ban the UN relief and works agency (Unrwa) from the country within 90 days. Alongside a decision to declare Unrwa a terror group, the move is expected to lead to the closure of Unrwa's East Jerusalem headquarters and would effectively block the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza via Rafah.

Crime | The far-right activist Tommy Robinson has been jailed for 18 months for contempt of court for repeating false allegations against a Syrian refugee, in breach of an injunction. Robinson had repeated his false claim that Jamal Hijazi, who had been filmed being attacked at a school in West Yorkshire, violently attacks young English girls" despite losing a libel case.

Justice | Prisoners serving controversial indeterminate sentences were given minimum terms of less than six months but have remained in jail for at least 16 years, newly released data shows.

Wildlife | Hedgehogs are now listed as near threatened" on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's red list, after a decline in numbers of at least 30% over the past decade across much of their range.