TechScape: Betting markets come for everything – and the FBI comes for a betting market

This week in tech news, online predictors are riding high after a slew of accurate US election wagers. Plus, Trump and Musk try to weaponize the communications regulator

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Gambling on the outcome of the presidential election became legal in the US at the start of October after decades of prohibition, becoming a new type of pre-election poll. Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket accepted billions of dollars in wagers on the outcome, with their users favoring Donald Trump with a 70% chance of beating Kamala Harris, out of sync with mainstream polls. Trump's camp trumpeted the predictions.

In the UK, election gambling is legal and takes a very different form. Traditional bookmakers and betting firms take players' wagers and set prices and odds. The bets are not as similar to prediction markets as they are to horse racing. These markets are prone to their own scandals. Kalshi and Polymarket offer an online vision of betting that encompasses a wider range of subjects, algorithmically sets prices and relies on cryptocurrency.

We're just getting started," said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. Kalshi is adding close to 100" new markets to its platform every day and plans to launch combination-based markets, allowing users to bet on a bundle of different outcomes, and conditional markets (for example, if Trump wins, where will GDP be?") within weeks. I think that just accelerates from here ...

Only terrorism, assassination and violence" are off limits for Kalshi. What about Ukraine? While the conflict falls into the platform's banned category, Russia's invasion and the ensuing war have certainly moved stocks and commodities since February 2022. We'll see over time," said Mansour.