Early data shows Seattle halved pedestrian deaths and had zero bicycling deaths in 2024
I almost cried when I saw this chart during SDOT's Vision Zero presentation to the City Council's Transportation Committee Tuesday. Preliminary traffic safety data for Seattle from 2024 shows half as many pedestrian deaths as the modern high point in 2021 and zero traffic deaths of people riding a bicycle. Ten deaths of people walking or using a mobility device is still horrible and unacceptable, but back when the 2021 data showed 20 such deaths, we had no idea whether it was a bloody statistical blip or, horrifyingly, the new normal.
The 2024 data is not all good. Bafflingly, there were significant increases in traffic deaths for drivers and their passengers as well as motorcycle riders. I have not yet heard an explanation for these increases. They could be horrible statistical blips, but the result is that the number of people killed while inside a car surpassed the number of people killed while walking or biking, something that hasn't happened for quite a long time. It reminded me of something I wrote in 2022: Where are the people demanding safer roadways for driving?
The 2021 spike in pedestrian deaths was part of a national trend, largely (but not completely) due to the increasing prevalence of larger vehicles that have higher fatality rates. SUVs, vans and pickups were involved in 41% of fatal collisions in Washington State between 2010 and 2021, but only 31% of non-fatal collisions. Many common large vehicles also have notoriously bad near-vehicle visibility, spawning many terrifying demonstrations of how many children can sit in front or behind them before a driver can actually see one of them. So not only are these vehicles more deadly in a collision, their drivers are also less likely to be able to see people walking or biking nearby.
The problem for SDOT and local transportation safety advocates is that vehicle safety regulations are almost entirely federal and not within the city's purview. Even Washington State has limited power over vehicle design regulations without joining in coalition with other larger states like California (which the state should do more often). So while SDOT and its Vision Zero team have been able to dramatically improve safety on the limited number of streets where they have conducted purposeful redesign projects, it felt like those actions were swimming against the stream due to the ever-increasing danger as old sedans are replaced by new SUVs. It was scary to thinking about, but what if we couldn't bring these traffic deaths back down? What if we were just fools gluing plastic posts to the ground in the path of a speeding driver watching reruns of The Man Show on their SUV's 15-inch infotainment screen?
Seattle voters, however, did not give up. We doubled down on the Vision Zero strategy, passing a new transportation levy with significant increased for safety improvements. These preliminary numbers now back up the voters' confidence, suggesting that the problem is not entirely out of our hands. We can make our streets safer and save lives whether the federal government helps us or not.
The preliminary serious injury numbers for 2024 are much closer to their trend lines.
City list is not all-encompassing. Boston, for example, is the Vision Zero leader for large U.S. cities and would likely be around 1.3 or so on this chart.
Traffic deaths and injuries are concentrated in the southern parts of the city and along a handful of streets. Rainier Ave stands out especially strongly.The trend lines are still heading in the wrong direction, and these numbers are volatile enough that 2024 could be a statistical blip. I desperately hope the pedestrian and bicycle figures are not mere blips but the start of a steep downward trend. But we aren't just relying on hope. With many major safe streets projects in construction and planning, Seattle is in a position to keep forcing these numbers down. Since these numbers are people, beloved members of our community, reaching Vision Zero would be one of the greatest humanitarian efforts our city has ever achieved so long as our elected leaders continue to stand firmly behind it even on difficult and complex streets on the planning horizon like the deadly northern section of Rainier Ave.
If the preliminary counts hold true and nobody was killed while biking in Seattle in 2024 and I haven't missed any sad news so far this year, then that means Steve Hulsman is still the last person killed while biking here. I know Seattle has not completed enough safe streets work yet to expect him to be the last ever. People have seen seriously injured, and the line between death and serious injury can be thin. But visualizing a city where deaths while biking are a thing of the past reveals a world worth working towards. We are in the middle of it. We have many miles yet to go, but we've also done so much to get here.
As someone who understands statistics, I know we can't just cherry pick the good data points in this chart. But as someone who understands that each of these data points is a person, it's hard not to grab onto a good data point and give it a big hug. Zero deaths of people biking in 2024. Deaths of people walking halved compared to 2021. A full eight years of safety investments in construction or getting lined up at SDOT. We can do this.
Watch SDOT's Vision Zero presentation (starts around 1:37:38):