Poland’s presidential election result is a morale boost for Maga forces in Europe | Catherine De Vries

Karol Nawrocki's win is a blow for prime minister Donald Tusk - and it symbolises a larger battle over the political narrative

Polish voters returned to the polls on Sunday for the decisive round of a presidential election whose outcome reverberates far beyond Poland's borders. The race was a showdown between two candidates who represent the country's stark political and ideological divide: Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the far-right opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), and Rafa Trzaskowski, the liberal and strongly pro-European mayor of Warsaw representing the Civic Platform (PO) party of the prime minister, Donald Tusk. The razor-thin victory for Nawrocki, who secured just over 50% of the vote, is a domestic setback for Tusk, but it also threatens wide and gloomy repercussions within the EU and beyond.

Tusk's return to power as prime minister in 2023, after previously serving from 2007 to 2014, was widely seen as a bid to re-anchor Poland within the European project. His government promised reforms, especially in restoring the rule of law, after years of confrontational policies under PiS aimed at undermining the independence of the judiciary and the constitutional court. Those ambitions now face a significant institutional roadblock. While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the president has significant powers: they can veto legislation and influence domestic, foreign and defence policy. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, who is also aligned with PiS, used his veto to block Tusk's reform efforts. With Nawrocki now set to occupy the presidential palace, such obstruction is expected to intensify rather than ease.

Catherine De Vries is Generali chair in European policies and a professor at Bocconi University in Milan