2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview: Baker Mayfield’s volume will keep several pass catchers relevant
The Buccaneers have asserted their dominance in the NFC South over the past four seasons, winning the division whether it's Tom Brady or Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Todd Bowles enters his fourth season as the Bucs' head coach (and seventh total) looking to continue as a perennial playoff team with a mix of veterans and young guys who could hopefully play right away. They'll have some challenges as established players like Chris Godwin and Tristian Wirfs battle back from injuries, but the nucleus is much of the same.
With younger teams like the Falcons and Panthers adding more talent, the Bucs will need another solid year from Mayfield and his new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. We know the Bucs are good enough to make the playoffs, but how deep can they go?
2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RANK)Points per game: 29.5 (4th)
Total yards per game: 399.6 (3rd)
Plays per game: 64.6 (6th)
Dropbacks per game: 40.9 (14th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.21 (5th)
Rush attempts per game: 28.4 (10th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.01 (4th)
Equipped with a new three-year extension, Todd Bowles has found his footing as the Bucs' head coach in the past three seasons. Coming off of a third straight NFC South title and his first 10-win season as a HC since 2015 with the Jets, Bowles and GM Jason Licht knew they had to improve their 18th ranked overall defense. They added Haason Reddick while also drafting defensive backs Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish to help with the Bucs' 29th ranked pass defense. It was bad for the Bucs, but good for fantasy managers who rostered their offensive players who were part of their third-ranked passing offense in the NFL. If the Bucs' improve on defense, it'll naturally slow the game down for them on offense, but they'll have to show they can actually hold up on that side of the ball.
For a third consecutive year the Bucs will have a new offensive coordinator, but this time he comes from in house. Former passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard has been promoted to keep the ship sailing on a top five unit that has plenty of talent. He was put in this position mainly because he's got first hand knowledge of what he's working with and the continuity would be best for the Bucs' offense. He'll add his wrinkles, but you shouldn't expect to see much difference in how the offense is run. The question is, will he follow in Dave Canales' and Liam Cohen's footsteps and become a head coach next?
Passing GameQB: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask
WR: Mike Evans, Trey Palmer
WR: Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan
WR: Emeka Egbuka, Sterling Shepard
TE: Cade Otton, Payne Durham Pop, Ko Kieft
Baker Mayfield has undoubtedly had his best two seasons since going to Tampa Bay before the 2023 season. While he did tie for the league lead in interceptions (with Kirk Cousins) at 16, he was tied for second (with Lamar Jackson) in the NFL with 41 touchdown passes. You can chalk most of these numbers up to volume as he was seventh in the league with 33.5 passing attempts per game. At the end of the day, it ended with him finishing as QB5 in fantasy. As stated above, don't expect the Bucs' offense to change much and with an added weapon, Mayfield should be in the mix as one of the quarterbacks selected after you the top-tier dual threat quarterbacks are taken in fantasy drafts.
That new added weapon will be Emeka Egbuka. We know Mike Evans is great and he will be that this year as well. We also know that the Bucs just equipped Chris Godwin with a new contract, but at some point players will stop playing and the Bucs are getting ahead of it. Egbuka being drafted in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft afterthey saw the success that Jalen McMillan had (after being picked in the third round in 2024) should tell you how good they feel about him. Let's go back to Godwin real quick. Prior to his injury in Week 7 of last season, only Ja'Marr Chase had scored more fantasy points than him at receiver. When will he be back though? We don't know. What we do know is that during that stretch, Evans was WR21, but from Weeks 8-17 he was WR3 in fantasy points per game. Both guys still got it. Expect Egbuka to occupy the WR2 role until we see Godwin back and we know Mayfield can keep several pass catchers fantasy relevant. McMillan on the other hand, will try and keep his footing after recording eight touchdown receptions as a rookie. If anything, you know he's reliable if one of the vets goes down again.
Remember how I just said Mayfield keeps several pass catchers fantasy relevant? Well that includes the tight end too as Cade Otton finished as TE12 in fantasy. Now there's some context here (as it should be with everything). In the game that Godwin got hurt, Otton went on to finish with 18 fantasy points. The following two games he score 29.1 and 21.7. After that he didn't reach more than 10 fantasy points in another game. Prior to Godwin's injury he scored more than 10 fantasy points just once. While serviceable, Otton will need touchdowns to pan out if all the receivers are healthy and rolling. It's also important to remember that the Bucs have two (and maybe even three) running backs that will handle pass-catching duties as well.
Running GameRB: Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, D.J. Williams/Josh Williams
OL (L-R): Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke
One of those running backs who'll be catching passes is Bucky Irving, who hauled in 47 receptions for 392 yards as a rookie. He was exceptional on the ground as well rushing for 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns on 5.4 YPC. While he was only" RB19 in fantasy points per game, he did all of this playing only 45% of the snaps. Rachaad White (RB21) on the other hand came at 51% of the snaps. It should be noted however, in Weeks 1-5 Irving averaged only 36.6% snaps per game. That number jumped to 50.4% the rest of the regular season in games he didn't miss due to injury. With that being said, the playing time naturally decreased for White as he fell out of favor with the team due to the emergence of Irving. The only other running back to take the field for the Bucs was Sean Tucker (RB1 in Week 6 last season), who shouldn't be slept on when it comes to cutting into White's share of the pie. Nonetheless, it's now known that Bucky Irving is the guy for the Bucs coming into 2025 and his ceiling is a top 5-10 running back in fantasy.
The entire Bucs' offensive line will return every single starter from 2024, all of which started at least 16 games last season with the exception of Luke Goedeke (who missed four games with a concussion). The line is still young with the eldest statesman being Ben Bredeson at age 27, yet the Bucs were the 4th best rushing offense in the league last season. The unit will continue to be anchored by three-time All-Pro Tristan Wirfs, who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. The Bucs offense was the third-best in the NFL in 2024 and there's no reason to think they won't hover around that again with this offensive line staying together.
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total (O/U 9.5)The Bucs have finished first in the NFC South three straight seasons under Todd Bowles, but have yet to exceed 10 wins despite being in one of the weaker divisions. After posting a 4-2 divisional record last season, I expect teams like the Falcons (who swept them in 2024) and the Panthers to take a step up this season. Additionally, outside of their own division, the Bucs will face teams like the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Bills and Rams who will be tough to take down. Even with the offensive firepower, I'm going to say the Bucs go under 9.5 wins this season and it'll be a tight race in the NFC South for that home playoff game.