India's Got Time

India Dispatch: The strongest case for India is not merely that it is young, but that it still has time, and it may be the only continental-scale economy that still has it in abundance. India won't cross the demographic threshold for an "old" country -- a median age of 41 -- until the late 2050s, while China reaches that point now. India requires 10.4% sustained GDP growth over 35 years to become rich before aging, compared to China's needed 32% annual growth rate. India's working-age population will increase from 67.5% in 2021 to 69.2% by 2031, with the median age remaining at 34.5 in 2036. The report adds: China's compressed dilemma mirrors what is gripping the developed world, where Europe's share of population over 65 is on track to hit 30% by 2050, up from 8% in 1950. Raising retirement ages -- what economists describe as the closest thing to a silver bullet -- faces older voting blocs, who now make up roughly 40% of those who turn up at the polls in European elections. In the U.S., what J.P. Morgan analysts term a "Social Security cliff" looms by 2033, when the system's trust funds are projected to be exhausted, and hopes that productivity miracles (powered by, hopefully AI) will quietly square this circle look optimistic, leaving much of the rich world and North Asia out of time.

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