Cowboys vs. Eagles odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers for NFL opener
When this game was announced, admit it, you rolled your eyes.
We didn't need a Sunday Night Football-esque NFC East special to kick off the season, and we didn't need the Cowboys, given what we were subjected to from Dallas in 2024.
Maybe this game is just as underwhelming as it was when announced, but I'll begrudgingly admit it's become one of the most interesting Week 1 games from a betting perspective.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 47.5)Let's start with a point spread that screams 6-point teaser leg!"
Which would you rather bet: Philadelphia at -2.5 at the teaser price of around -280 (paired with another valuable teaser leg later in Week 1), or the Eagles moneyline at -430?
That premise alone suggests that we might see this line creep up out of teaser range to -9, before Thursday, when bettors - despite having months to bet this game - flock to get a wager in on the NFL season opener.
That this line has broken contain through the key number of -7 is the result of the Cowboys trading Micah Parsons last week.
We'll never know how effective Parsons was going to be on Thursday night if he had been given a new contract or ended his hold-in, particularly since we don't yet know whether his back injury will keep him out of the Packers' game on Sunday. But, if everything had gone well contractually, and he missed this singular game with an injury, would the line have been ballooned from -6.5 to -8.5 the way that it has?
Like every game, the point spread is a reflection of the market's perception of both teams. At THE WINDOW, we try to use an easy-to-understand scale out of 100 to estimate how the market rates each team.
A point spread of -8 puts the Eagles in high-60s (third in the NFL, behind the Ravens and Bills). While that might feel like underrating the defending champions, it merely builds in some room to the high side because of the depth that the Eagles lost in the offseason. With Philadelphia securely in that upper echelon, the visiting team would have to be rated in the mid-40s (below league-average) to be an underdog of over a touchdown.
The negative perception of Jerry Jones stubbornly trading Parsons is the reason that you might be nodding in approval of the market's opinion on each side, but Parsons managed a whopping two tackles and no sacks in Cowboys-Eagles games last season. Against a run-first team, what impact was he going to have, even at full health? Theoretically, for this one game, adding Kenny Clark into the middle of the defensive line might be better for Dallas given the necessity to hold up against the run in this matchup.
Finally, the last time the Cowboys were rated as a below average team was, well, last season ... but that was without Dak Prescott. With Prescott, even when the Cowboys started below .500, they were still considered an above-average team.
Though the Dallas offensive line comes with some pressing questions beyond, Wait, there are how many Tylers?," Prescott should be able to keep the Cowboys in this game longer than most expect. Especially those bettors caught up in the fury of the Parsons trade.
Bet: Cowboys +8.5
Player propsDak Prescott over 6.5 rushing yards (-110)During their 12-5 season in 2023, Prescott returned to using his legs, a year after breaking one of them in 2022. He ran for 10-plus yards in 11 games and had three or more carries in nine of them (indicating that twice all he needed to go over 6.5 was one carry), showing that the injury didn't affect his mindset.
In his abbreviated 2024 season, Prescott seemed less anxious to run, perhaps nursing some soreness that eventually led to his hamstring tearing off the bone in a Week 9 game where he ran three times for 30 yards.
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Just reading about that injury might make you and I never want to run again, but if the betting market is going to set this line low because of it, we'll back Prescott to take off a couple times to evade the Eagles' pass rush.
Jake Ferguson longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115)If there's a place to target the Eagles' defense, it's over the middle of their secondary. Second-round pick Andrew Mukuba is on the injury report with a hamstring, which would leave Sydney Brown as the default winner of the camp battle at safety. Brown's 83 total snaps in 2024 doesn't instill much optimism that he's going to be able to hold up in coverage against better opponents.
Ferguson was targeted 52 times in the seven games he played while Prescott was healthy, but when Cooper Rush got involved, Ferguson was targeted just 21 times in the final seven. We expect a return to decent volume Thursday. Even amongst those 21 targets from Rush, Ferguson got loose for a long reception four times.
Combine Prescott's willingness to look his way, and Ferguson's ability to stretch the middle of the field, and we'll bet that a long reception is in the cards here.
A.J. Brown under 71.5 receiving yards (-115)Towards the end of last season, Brown's receiving yardage number went from being lined in the high-80s down through the 70s, eventually settling at 64.5, 68.5 and 67.5 in the Eagles' final three playoff games. That adjustment came because Brown averaged 57.2 yards per game in the Eagles' final nine games, going 6-3 to the under.
Dallas Goedert's return from injury cut into the available receiving yardage for Brown, who was nursing an injury late in the season. Plus, we're expecting a surge in production from DeVonta Smith this season.
Perhaps a preseason hamstring injury is a non-issue (Brown is off the injury report), but if he's frequently matched up with Trevon Diggs, there will be better options for Jalen Hurts elsewhere in the passing game, especially this early in the season as offenses catch up to defenses.
Anytime touchdownCowboys TE Jake Ferguson (+260 or better)We'd love to two bets, one stone" it with Ferguson with a long TD, since the same premise about the matchup applies to his likelihood of scoring as it does that he has a long reception. Surprisingly, Ferguson didn't score last season, but had five TDs in his breakout second season in 2023 when Prescott was fully healthy. That 29.4% hit rate translates to implied odds of +240, and Ferguson can be found as long as +333, which would be more than a 6% edge.
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (+155 or better)Quick - who led the Eagles in receiving TDs last season?
Yes, it was Smith, who scored eight touchdowns in 13 regular-season games, adding one in the Super Bowl. If Brown is getting the attention from the Cowboys' best cornerback, Smith's quickness should put the combination of DaRon Bland and Kaiir Elam in a blender, especially near the goal line as a scoring target that Hurts got very comfortable with last season. Widely available for +180, that's a price worth seeking out on Smith who's a more likely scorer than his high-profile teammate.
Long shot: WR KaVontae Turpin (+450 or better)The Cowboys only got Turpin a pair of receiving touchdowns in 2024, but the 16 carries he got towards the end of last season indicates the Cowboys were trying to get the ball in the speedster's hands by any means necessary.
By math alone, over the last two seasons, Turpin has scored six offensive touchdowns in 33 games, for a rate of 18%. Even without adjusting for his involvement in late-season game plans, and Prescott's health, the implied odds on that number are +450. With that being a fair starting point, Turpin can be found for as long as +850, and we haven't even discussed the pair of return touchdowns (one punt, one kick) that add value to our lone touchdown long shot for Thursday night.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.