Fantasy Football: Why it's OK to bench Calvin Ridley, and 9 more things that will define Week 1

Fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will use this space each week to break down the players, situations and more that will define the NFL action that awaits us. Let's get into Week 1.

1) Rookie Running Backs

It's Week 1, and every rookie running back is 15th on their depth chart.

How much caution do we need to proceed with? In terms of depth charts alone, it's not uncommon at all to see rookie skill players listed lower than expected. Take it with a grain of salt. Breece Hall, for example, was initially listed as the RB3 before getting 15 opportunities in his first career game. What really matters is how coaches speak with their actions, such as RJ Harvey in Denver being the starting running back when Bo Nix was on the field in the preseason.

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However, we do have to be aware that most coaches will ease players into a heavy workload. Only nine rookie RBs since 2020 have had over 10 rushing attempts in Week 1, most of whom were not the ones you'd expect, making it even more difficult to trust. Players like James Robinson, Isiah Pacheco and Elijah Mitchell weren't exactly the notable draft picks we'd expect to hit the ground running.

For running backs like Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson and Omarion Hampton, I'm expecting solid flex production on 10-12 touches in Week 1 as they get ramped up this first month. The RBs I'd pass on in Week 1 would be Kaleb Johnson, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jaydon Blue, whose coaches have not shown enough in the preseason to warrant a Week 1 start; each has a high chance of very limited opportunities.

2) Justin Fields in September

In 10 September games over the last few seasons, Justin Fields has averaged 14.1 fantasy PPG. And yet every time, he bounces back. Nearly 21 fantasy PPG and the QB5 the rest of the way as a starter.

But as the quarterback, his September slumps don't just affect him, but all of his teammates. In 2023, DJ Moore began as the WR33 in PPG through Month 1 and put up the sixth most PPG the rest of the way. If you are rostering Fields (or Wilson), you want the curse to break, but don't fully panic and trade for scraps if it doesn't.

3) Ollie Gordon II's Workload

This Mike McDaniel offense is heaven for fantasy RBs. In 2023, the Dolphins had two top-five fantasy backs in PPG and nobody was better than De'Von Achane last year when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. After the Raheem Mostert fall-off, Miami didn't have a short-yardage option in the backfield to complement Achane.

That brings in the biggest question mark of the offense to begin this season: Ollie Gordon II.

I will be watching this game very carefully. If there's a hint of a role for Gordon, it will likely result in consistent fantasy value later on. It wouldn't be a death sentence for Achane, but Gordon has a good shot at stealing Achane's surprisingly good goal-line usage (9th in inside-the-5 touch %) in a high-ceiling offense with room to grow.

Mike McDaniel is trolling the fantasy community with his answer on how he plans to use Ollie Gordon pic.twitter.com/5XoeBy095i

- Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 3, 2025

4) Don't panic on Calvin Ridley

Cam Ward, welcome to the NFL. Your first game is against the best defense in the league, on the road, who somehow got better this offseason by adding safety Talanoa Hufanga and LB Dre Greenlaw.

The only player who has it worse is Calvin Ridley, who will likely be shadowed by Patrick Surtain II, meaning the DPOY will follow Ridley play-to-play to make sure his day is dreadful. According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain gave up 0.6 yards per coverage snap. That is very troublesome unless Calvin Ridley plans to run 150 routes on Sunday.

My advice? Bench him, don't even look at the game log and move on with full peace knowing nothing has changed.

5) Matthew Golden's stock is decided

One of the biggest fantasy questions of the offseason: Is Matthew Golden the Packers' WR1? We should find out right away. With Jayden Reed questionable for Week 1, the opportunity is there for the taking.

Two examples we can relate the situation to are from 2023. Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston. Late first-round draft picks in situations with clear opportunity available. Flowers opened up Week 1 with 10 targets and kept solid volume his whole rookie season. Johnston had three targets and came up short in Year 1 as a whole.

I tend to believe Golden's skill set will mesh well with Jordan Love and earn him targets early. If it does, sky's the limit. If he comes out slow? Probably will be a slower first half of the season.

6) Can Daniel Jones be close to average?

Only two teams had multiple players inside the top-15 in targets: The New York Jets and the New York Giants. Daniel Jones is not the ideal talent for your fantasy players, but he's next to perfect in terms of volume. Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson's short-area targets that Jones loves will now be given to Tyler Warren and Josh Downs.

It might not be pretty, but it wasn't pretty for Josh Downs with Joe Flacco in 2024 when he averaged over 15 fantasy PPG on 9.3 targets per game. With Downs' ability to command targets (third in targets/route in 2024) and Warren's playmaking ability that made him a first-round talent, there is fantasy value to be had despite the ugly situation. Daniel Jones just needs to be good enough to keep starting to provide fantasy steals in Indy.

7) Jaylen Waddle's Usage is the fantasy key in Miami

Last season, Jaylen Waddle dropped from eigth in fantasy points per route to 54th. A lot went wrong. Jonnu Smith led TEs with 22 designed targets, Tua dropped to last in average depth of target and Waddle was lost along the way. In a heavy first-read McDaniel offense, the young Miami wideout was an afterthought on first-read targets, ranking 77th among WRs.

The question is, with Jonnu gone, how do things change? Achane's receiving isn't going anywhere, leading me to believe that one of Hill or Waddle will bounce back, but not both. Does Waddle get the Jonnu Smith screens? Does Hill rebound as the top deep weapon? With so much time to prepare in a system that's heavily controlled by coaching rather than quarterback improvisation, the direction of the 2025 Dolphins should be much clearer after Week 1. I plan to react accordingly, even on a small one-game sample size.

8) Will Gabe Davis spoil the Keon Coleman breakout?

The worry with Keon Coleman's rookie season was Buffalo stating it'd use him in a way similar to Florida State rather than a "power slot" WR. And it did just that. Coleman was very one-dimensional, with top-five tendencies in outside alignment and "Go" route percentage as a rookie. This was the exact role that Gabe Davis left behind when he left for Jacksonville last offseason.

With Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid as the clear inside weapons, the outside has suddenly become crowded with Joshua Palmer and Gabe Davis. Unless there is a major change in Week 1, Coleman is more likely to become a role player than the next breakout star.

9) 49ers' goal-line prediction

There is only one worry for me with Brian Robinson Jr. arriving in San Francisco, but it is a major one. In 2023, Christian McCaffrey was top-five in goal-line attempts with 18, scoring on half of them. CMC is more than capable of handling the work inside the five, but many worry if the 6'1" 225-lbs RB from Washington steals that important volume.

The 3.3 fantasy PPG difference wouldn't kill McCaffrey, but it would bring his overall RB1 upside to a mere top-five level. All things considered, I personally am expecting McCaffrey to stay a complete bellcow, making him the RB1 candidate as long as he stays healthy.

10) Who earns the Chicago RB2 role

Over the last three seasons, the Lions have led the NFL in goal-line rush attempts by a country mile. However, in one of those three seasons, Ben Johnson had D'Andre Swift, and he got next to nothing inside the five. Swift ended the season with four goal-line carries while Jamaal Williams received an NFL-high 33, 14 more than the second-best.

It's just one of many reasons why we should keep an eye out for the Week 1 snap share between Chicago RBs. With David Montgomery being top-16 in fantasy PPG each of the last two seasons with the Bears' new playcaller, you'd expect a second Chicago running back to be drafted prior to an ADP of RB61.