Fantasy Football: The unlikely stat that could help you figure out which running backs to trade for

When looking for great fantasy football running backs, we know intuitively that we should chase good offensive lines. And generally speaking, good offenses tend to yield good production when it comes to those dudes who tote the rock.

I think back to Todd Gurley and his day back with Jeff Fisher. Great player, terrible offense; those bad Rams teams ended up being an anchor on Gurley's production.

But instead of sifting through endless O-line rankings, what if I told you there was a stat that you could look up relatively easily to give you a shorthand note on what teams and running backs you should be targeting?

https://tenor.com/view/is-that-something-you-would-be-interested-in-interested-wouldyoulikethat-entourage-gif-12506192

I know it sounds weird, but what I have found is that sack rate is a pretty good indicator of potential running back success.

It's going to sound like a stretch at first, but stick with me.

Sack percentage captures a couple of very important factors when it comes to production.

For one, offensive lines that can protect pretty well can generally run block pretty well. An offensive line that allows a lot of sacks mostly isn't going out there and paving roads on run plays either.

But sack rates also provide a huge clue as to which offenses are actually going to score touchdowns.

Perhaps you've heard people say, Sacks are drive killers!"

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Well, when the great Josh Hermsmeyer (writing for 538 at the time) looked at data from the 2017-2019 seasons, he found that drives that included a sack only resulted in a rushing touchdown 2.3% of the time. Drives without a sack had nearly four times the rushing touchdown rate at 8.7%.

Last year, of the 10 teams with the lowest sack rates, seven of those teams' rushers finished as top 12 full-PPR fantasy backs.

Lowest Sack Rates in 2024

Team	Sack %	Rank	Player	2024 RB Rank
BUF	2.41%	1	James Cook	9
DEN	3.72%	2	Javonte Williams	30
GB	4.21%	3	Josh Jacobs	6
BAL	4.37%	4	Derrick Henry	4
ARI	4.86%	5	James Conner	11
LA	5.22%	6	Kyren Williams	7
JAX	5.29%	7	Travis Etienne Jr.	35
ATL	5.34%	8	Bijan Robinson	3
DET	5.50%	9	Jahmyr Gibbs	2
DAL	5.52%	10	Rico Dowdle	23

* RB rankings through 17 weeks, full-PPR scoring.

Conversely, of the 12 teams with the highest sack rate, only one running back on those teams finished as a top 12 fantasy back:

Highest Sack Rates in 2024

Team	Sack %	Rank	Player	2024 RB Rank
CHI	9.97%	32	D'Andre Swift	19
CLE	8.62%	31	Jerome Ford	33
TEN	8.47%	30	Tony Pollard	21
PIT	8.31%	29	Najee Harris	20
PHI	8.29%	28	Saquon Barkley	1
HOU	8.16%	27	Joe Mixon	13
NE	8.14%	26	Rhamondre Stevenson	28
SEA	8.02%	25	Zach Charbonnet	25
MIN	7.83%	24	Aaron Jones Sr.	14
WAS	7.61%	23	Brian Robinson Jr.	29
LAC	7.48%	22	J.K. Dobbins	24
NYG	7.16%	21	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	26

* RB rankings through 17 weeks, full-PPR scoring.

Now, granted, that one back was Saquon Barkley, but I think the general premise still holds: Barring a generational talent being your starting running back, high sack rates are indicative of poor line play and will tend to yield significantly fewer opportunities to score touchdowns.

It's obviously not a perfect stat, but what is? We know that targets and air yards are tremendous indicators of future receiver production, but again, no analyst would sit here and tell you it's a one-for-one indicator of fantasy gold. See: Xavier Legette.

Okay, with the premise set, let's spin this forward for 2025.

Lowest Sack Rates in 2025

Team	Sack %	Rank	Player	2025 RB Rank
JAX	1.30%	1	Travis Etienne Jr.	9
DEN	1.33%	2	J.K. Dobbins	14
BUF	2.38%	3	James Cook	1
IND	2.82%	4	Jonathan Taylor	6
DAL	3.26%	5	Javonte Williams	3
GB	3.51%	6	Josh Jacobs	16
CAR	4.04%	7	Chuba Hubbard	7
CLE	4.04%	7	Dylan Sampson	17
NO	4.55%	9	Alvin Kamara	15
KC	4.71%	10	Isiah Pacheco	51
SF	4.94%	11	Christian McCaffrey	2
SEA	5.00%	12	Kenneth Walker III	20

RBs TO TRADE FOR/HOLDTravis Etienne Jr., Jaguars

Look, I get it; we're two weeks in and yes, these numbers will change, in some cases dramatically. But with functional coaching, it is not a coincidence that Jacksonville's league-leading low sack rate also coincides with Etienne having a huge bounce-back season through two weeks.

My own personal charting of Etienne last year showed a player who was good to great on outside zone and as the Jags have adopted a run scheme that leans heavily into outside concepts, it was nice to see that my charting has lined up well with his early-season success.

If you have Etienne, you're obviously holding but if you don't have him rostered, reach out to the ETN manager to see what it would take. I wouldn't go crazy but I do see sustained success for the former Clemson star.

Quinshon Judkins, Browns

Of the dozen college running back prospects I charted, I had Judkins as my No. 2 prospect, just slightly ahead of Omarion Hampton but clearly ahead of his teammate Treveyon Henderson. I really liked his ability to get outside and create. Whereas his teammate Henderson was more straight-line, Judkins showed more as a zone runner with better vision and cut-back ability.

I thought his running style would seemingly mesh perfectly with all the outside concepts employed by Kevin Stefanski and we're potentially seeing some good early returns there.

Despite missing all of training camp and preseason, Judkins ended up leading the team in rush attempts (10) and yards (71 total), all this despite only playing 28% of the snaps. Expect his play time to increase significantly in the coming weeks.

With Joe Flacco under center, I don't think the Browns can sustain this current top-10 sack rate, but if they can, Judkins will find a lot more touchdown opportunities coming his way.

Javonte Williams, Cowboys

At the start of the year, Williams was one of most tepid, lukewarm picks you could have made. Even at his bargain, basement draft-price tag, more people were excited about Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah.

Now, after two weeks and playing nearly 75% of the snaps, Javonte could go down as one of the best picks you could have made this year.

You can't trade for Williams for any value now but if you're potentially looking to trade while his stock is sky high, I wouldn't take anything less than a Chris Olave-type player back. Put another way, you're looking for a high-quality player who is slumping right now as a starting point of negotiations.

And remember, the Cowboys finished last year as a top-10 unit in terms of sack rate allowed.

Highest Sack Rates in 2025

Team	Sack %	Rank	Player	2025 RB Rank
MIN	16.67%	32	Aaron Jones Sr.	28
TEN	14.67%	31	Tony Pollard	32
MIA	10.96%	30	De'Von Achane	5
PIT	9.59%	29	Jaylen Warren	13
NE	9.52%	28	Rhamondre Stevenson	19
HOU	9.38%	27	Nick Chubb	26
ARI	8.96%	26	James Conner	18
BAL	8.93%	25	Derrick Henry	12
NYJ	8.77%	24	Breece Hall	23
LV	8.05%	23	Ashton Jeanty	27
CIN	7.89%	22	Chase Brown	24
WAS	7.78%	21	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	36

RBs TO TRADE AWAYNick Chubb, Texans

Following his solid but unspectacular 15.2 ppr day, I think now is the perfect time to shop Chubb around to see what the interest is.

We already know Houston's line is one of the worst in the NFL and C.J. Stroud will continue to be harassed in the backfield. Remember, Houston finished with the fifth-worst sack rate last year, meaning touchdown opportunities could be hard to come by.

Beyond the sack rate, the depth chart is murky as the Texans seem committed to working in Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale, especially on passing downs. It's unrealistic to expect 35 yards after contact on receptions for Chubb like we saw in Week 2.

But also note the Texans schedule. From Weeks 5-9, the Texans have Baltimore, Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. That is a brutal stretch of defenses Chubb will be facing.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Following back-to-back strong games, Warren is sitting as a surprising top 15 fantasy back right now. It also makes him a strong sell-high candidate. With the statuesque Aaron Rodgers back there, expect more sacks to stymie drives and stunt Warren's production.

In the coming weeks, the schedule also looks rough with Pittsburgh having games against NE, MIN, CLE and GB, with a bye week mixed in there, from now till Week 8. The last three defenses in particular are quite thorny.

Plus, I know Arthur Smith is wild but at some dang point, the talented rookie the Steelers took in the third round, Kaleb Johnson, has to start seeing some work in the backfield right? Right???

Either way, this feels like the absolute peak of Warren's value and trade avenues should be explored. Don't give him away for nothing but look to get an established player plus an unproven young player, like Trey Benson, back.