Dolphins vs. Bills odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football

One of the big changes for this year is putting divisional games on "Thursday Night Football;" nine of the 17 weeks that feature a Thursday game are divisional clashes. These have outsized importance because each division winner gets not only an automatic playoff bid but a home game in the postseason.

Jim Harbaugh joked prior to Monday's Chargers-Raiders game, saying, Divisional games are worth two, two-and-a-half, or three games in the standings, depending on the situation. They can swing the tiebreakers, the division lead and the seeding all at once."

To kick off Week 3, we get to watch the 2-0 Buffalo Bills take on the 0-2 Miami Dolphins, our first short-view battle of a pair of AFC teams. The Miami Dolphins have lost five straight games in Buffalo, and are 1-9 in the last 10. The key difference between this game and some of the previous contests was the cold weather late in the season, a strong advantage for Buffalo and a disadvantage for warm-weather Miami. Thursday's weather forecast features a neutralized factor at 64 degrees with low winds on a cloudy night with a sub-10% chance of rain.

So, do the Dolphins stand a chance ?

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 49.5)

The oddsmakers would answer the question above with a resounding "no." The Bills are 12.5-point favorites - the largest favorite of any team in Week 3 - and the money line at BetMGM is currently -833, which correlates roughly to an 89% implied probability for a Bills win.

The betting market tells a similar story as the oddsmakers: most sharp bettors are backing the Bills. Looking at the line history of this matchup at BetMGM: The market reopened at Bills -10.5 on Sunday night and has since been bet out to -12.5. Eleven and 12 are not important key numbers for NFL betting, but any two-point move is significant and telling in this league.

The reasons are pretty easy to understand. Through two weeks, the Bills are averaging 502 offensive yards per game, the highest in the NFL. They have not had an offensive turnover. They are scoring on 64% of their drives. Josh Allen left last season with an MVP trophy and looks like he has no plans on relinquishing that honor.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank fifth in penalties. They have the 31st-ranked third-down defense, allowing 52% of third downs to be converted. Their offense plays with pace and speed, but their defense can't get off the field. This leads to an imbalance in time of possession and fatigue issues - giving the opposing offense a big edge.

If I was betting the spread - even on a short week - it would be Bills or nothing. At -12.5, there is very little chance we see this number hit 13, and for that reason I would wait until kickoff to place the bet, to try and time the market, hoping some Miami resistance comes in and gives a Buffalo backer a better number. I personally am not betting any direction on the spread, feeling the price reflects true odds and therefore it holds no advantage.

The total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110)

Similar to the spread, the market is pricing this as a standout game of the week with one of the highest totals on the board. This is a spot where I will back the under as a situational schedule spot. Through two weeks so far, unders are 2-0 on TNF. If we increase the sample size to the previous two seasons, unders are 21-14. That shows a strong statistical advantage to backing the under.

The short week allows for less specific game planning to the opponent. The offensive sets and designs are more of a basic framework, and the defensive coverage is often more zone - keeping the plays in front of them and leading to increased possession time, even on scoring drives. We see fewer gadget plays and fewer advantages as a result of film study and more conservative approaches within the game.

The betting market has yet to react to the pricing. The total opened at 49.5 and remains there at BetMGM. I expect a wave of under money to come in later in the week as sportsbooks increase their limits, and I believe this will close a full point lower.

If the weather report changes and the chance of rain increases, there is some asymmetric risk to it causing a large decrease. Right now the conditions seem perfect, but if that were to change, the total would only go down. I like getting in on the under now and would make under 49.5 a best bet for this game.

Best bet: Under 49.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Player prop to target

Bills RB James Cook Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Cook has been amazing to start the year, picking right back up where he left off as last season's rushing touchdown leader with 16. Despite holding in and demanding a new contract during the offseason, his early season workload and subsequent results remain unaffected. The reason for this prop is threefold.

First, Allen landed on his face last week and popped up with a bad nosebleed. He left the game momentarily and when he came back the most noticeable impact was a lack of rushing attempts. The Bills leaned on Cook to handle the rushing to help Allen avoid taking more hits.

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Second, because of Miami's imbalance in time of possession - due to the Dolphins' offensive pace and defensive woes on third down - the Bills should have a strong advantage in controlling the ball. With a double-digit spread, expect the Bills to want to rush the ball to keep the clock moving. Cook is priced at 14.5 rushing attempts, and I also think he exceeds that number.

Lastly, as a bettor I am always concerned with line history and market direction. This prop opened 2 yards lower and has been bet up, yet 66.5 at BetMGM is the best number available. All the other prices are listed between 67.5-70.5, showing 66.5 to have some value and likely close higher come kickoff.