'I wouldn't be buying on this team at all:' What oddsmakers and handicappers think of the Chiefs' 0-2 start
The Kansas City Chiefs came into the 2025-26 season fresh off getting trounced 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX by the Philadelphia Eagles to deny the Chiefs a historic three-peat, but they still garnered the requisite respect from oddsmakers after winning three of the past six Super Bowls.
Kansas City was one of four teams - the Bills, Ravens and Eagles were the others - with a preseason win total of 11.5, and the Chiefs had the third-best playoff odds in the AFC at BetMGM at -400 (behind the Bills and Ravens) entering Week 1. Kansas City's Super Bowl odds (+800) heading into its opening game were just behind the other three teams - Baltimore, Buffalo and Philadelphia were +700.
The Chiefs still have the third-best AFC odds to make the postseason, but those odds are down to -190. And Kansas City's current Super Bowl odds of 15-1 are the lowest for a Patrick Mahomes-led team heading into Week 3 since his first season as a starter in 2018, per Sports Odds History.
There were some warning signs from public bettors based off of a lack of preseason futures action at several books, but nothing that drew great concern.
"Of the top-tier teams in the NFL, the Chiefs got the least amount of futures play this offseason," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told Yahoo Sports this week. "In terms of Super Bowl liability among those teams right now, they're probably our best-case scenario."
But two straight losses - 27-21 in Week 1 to the Chargers in Brazil and 20-17 at home to the Eagles on Sunday - in games the public has become accustomed to seeing Kansas City win (due to the 17 straight one-score games they'd won entering the season) have left the Chiefs in an unfamiliar position and one they haven't been in since 2014: starting the season 0-2.
How concerned are oddsmakers and handicappers about the Chiefs right now?
"Last year, Kansas City got away with a lot of close wins," Joey Feazel, head NFL oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook said. "They're weren't a generational type of 15-2 team. We did see action on them in the futures market going into the season, but I think that's because our price was a little higher than other books. I'm not surprised to see them struggle in the first two games, but they've played two very good teams. Do I think they're done? No. Once they get Rashee Rice back, they're going to make the playoffs and there's still the Mahomes factor."
Oddsmakers aren't that concerned about the 0-2 start over the long run of the season, but all five oddsmakers Yahoo Sports spoke with downgraded Kansas City's power rating.
"I've downgraded them about a point and a half from where I had them preseason," Gable said. "To count them out would be pretty foolhardy after two weeks. Are they looking as strong as the Ravens or Bills to start the year? Definitely not, but they still deserve respect in the market. Until they are dead and buried, for too long now with Mahomes, you can't count them out."
Other oddsmakers pointed to Rice returning after his six-game suspension as a potential turning point and the need for any semblance of a rushing attack to help Mahomes - currently the team's leading rusher with 123 yards.
"The biggest takeaway I've seen is their run game is non-existent," Ethan Useloff, Fanatics Sportsbook trader, told Yahoo Sports. "It feels like with the changes on the O-line, maybe they go with more 12 or 13 personnel? They have to get the run game going to give Mahomes more optionality. I think they'll be fine and make the playoffs, but their division is also significantly better than it has been."
Sharp handicappers agreed the lack of offensive weapons has hurt the Chiefs in the first two games, but also that this isn't a new problem for Kansas City.
"You have to downgrade them because you're looking at team that has no weapons on offense right now," Raheem Palmer, NFL handicapper at The Ringer, said. "There's no explosiveness, they were 27th in explosive play rate last year. It's been two years [and two games] since the offense has been elite."
Perhaps more striking - and something that has perhaps fallen a bit under the radar - has been the fall-off of Steve Spagnuolo's defense. It's a stop unit that currently ranks 25th in DVOA, 26th in EPA per play and is dead last in success rate.
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet betting analyst, told Yahoo Sports he's downgraded Kansas City's defense more than its offense and now has Kansas City projected for 8.7 wins this season.
"I think they're missing one or two cornerbacks to have a complete secondary, but there's really not anyone coming to the rescue," Dinsick said. "They only have one other pass rusher. It's a talent-poor defense. I have all the respect in the world for Spagnuolo, but there aren't a lot of options for him to work with. They need to fix their offense so they can score 30 points a game."
Not helping matters is a schedule that includes the Ravens in Week 4, Lions in Week 6 and Bills on the road in Week 9. Both Dinsick and Palmer believe waiting on the Chiefs in the futures market is a prudent move, given that schedule - as well as the fact that no offensive help other than Xavier Worthy will be returning before Week 7.
[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]
"Do you buy low on the Chiefs now? For me the answer is emphatically 'no,'" Dinsick said. "The Chiefs are at their best when playing with the lead, so it's a little spooky they can't get leads this season. Realistically, you're talking about a five-loss team at bye. At that point, you may have a chance [to bet them to win the Super Bowl] at longer than 15-1."
Kansas City is currently a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM on Sunday night at the New York Giants.
Perhaps one longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker put it best when Yahoo Sports asked him if Kansas City was still a playoff team: "They better win this week."