Fantasy Football Rookie Report entering Week 4: 'Quinshon Judkins is a top 10 running back option the rest of the way — period'
We're three weeks in and attrition is already real. Injuries are piling up, depth charts are shifting and rookies are being thrown into the fire.
Forget the stash game. Forget the maybe he's good in December" takes. Some of these rookies are here right now, demanding spots in your fantasy football starting lineup. And others? They're already clogging up your bench and dragging down your roster.
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It's time to stop hoping and start reacting. These rookies are either about to win you weeks or cost you wins. Let's talk risers and fallers heading into Week 4.
Riser: Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland BrownsI talked about this with Matt Harmon on the Week 3 Data Dump - Quinshon Judkins is a top 10 running back option the rest of the way. Period.
The Browns showed us exactly what they wanted to do with Judkins in his second game back: Feed him. Judkins handled 18 of 19 running back carries in the backfield. That's not a committee, that's a declaration. Cleveland is better than most of us thought it'd be, and it's planted its flag on Judkins as its guy.
He's commanding snaps, he's running with violence and he's averaging over 12 half-PPR points per game already. The usage is all there. Yes, Jerome Ford is still going to mix in on passing downs because he knows the offense and can hold up in protection, but when it comes to running the ball, there's no easing Judkins in, no slow roll, no acclimation period. He is the back.
And this isn't just empty volume. Judkins just put up almost 100 rushing yards against a Green Bay defense that had bottled up Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Week 1 and looked great against Baltimore. Ninety-three percent of Judkins' rushing yards have come after contact. That's grown-man production.
That's Nick Chubb's replacement stepping right in and showing he belongs.
Judkins is a monster, a beast, the engine of this backfield. If you drafted him, you're sitting on a top 10 running back option for the rest of the season. Get him in lineups - and leave him there.
Riser: Cam Skattebo, RB, New York GiantsThings are moving fast in New York. With rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart set to take over in Week 4 against the Chargers, the Giants offense is about to have a brand new look. And at the center of it all? Cam Skattebo.
The rookie running back out of Arizona State got his first real workload last week and immediately put himself on the fantasy map. Skattebo handled business both on the ground and through the air, finishing as RB6 in half-PPR with 21.1 points. He forced seven missed tackles (tied with Jonathan Taylor and Ollie Gordon II), commanded a 25% target share and looked like the kind of back who can give you points in multiple ways.
Pairing him with Dart makes this backfield intriguing. Both guys can run, which means the RPO game is going to stress defenses. And if Dart needs a quick outlet, Skattebo might be the better checkdown option than even Theo Johnson at tight end.
The Giants offense has been hard to figure out with Russell Wilson at quarterback, but what's clear is Skattebo has juice. He's a borderline must-start moving forward, and if Dart settles in, this one-two rookie punch could be one of the sneaky league-winning combos of the season.
Faller: RJ Harvey, RB, Denver BroncosWhen we talk about a riser at the position, there also has to be a faller, and right now that's Denver rookie running back, RJ Harvey. He was drafted pretty high in seasonal leagues with a lot of buzz about Sean Payton's usage of throwing the ball to running backs, but so far that excitement hasn't yielded any kind of positive return.
Through three games, Harvey has yet to post a single top-24 finish. He's averaging just 4.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR. On the flip side, J.K. Dobbins has been a top 24 back all three weeks, with one week as a top-12 rusher. Harvey is playing roughly half the snaps that Dobbins is. He's running plenty of routes, but he's still averaging the same number of targets and receptions as Dobbins.
This is a situation where the expectation was that Harvey could step right in and essentially replace the production Javonte Williams once gave this backfield. This was projected as a top-five backfield for opportunity, but through three weeks, we just haven't seen it.
It's not the end of the world; there's still plenty of season left, but right now, Harvey isn't someone you can confidently start in fantasy. He's been a disappointment compared to his teammates, and until we see a role shift, he's trending down heading into Week 4.
Riser: Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee TitansAnother rookie riser going into Week 4 is Tennessee Titans wide receiver Elic Ayomanor. Through three games, only one Titans pass catcher has posted a top-24 fantasy finish, and it's not Calvin Ridley or Tyler Lockett - it's Ayomanor.
Right now, this offense is being run by an exciting but raw rookie quarterback in Cam Ward. There isn't a lot of offensive firepower to lean on, but from a fantasy perspective, Ayomanor has been the WR1 on this team. He doesn't get as many snaps per game as Ridley. He doesn't run as many routes as Ridley. But when he's on the field, he's more involved. His target share is higher than Ridley's. He leads the team in end-zone targets. He leads the team in red-zone targets with three. He's second only to Ridley in 10+ air yard attempts, and while Ridley is being used heavily on play-action looks (six play-action targets already), Ayomanor is the one racking up the quick hitters. Ten of his targets have come on passes delivered in 2.5 seconds or less.
This isn't a fun offense, but fantasy football isn't about fun, it's about opportunity. And Ayomanor is leading the Titans in usage. If you're looking for a warm body on waivers to plug in because injuries are starting to pile up, Ayomanor is right there. The situation isn't ideal, but he's already trending up and should continue to be on the radar.
Faller: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh SteelersThe next rookie faller is Pittsburgh running back Kaleb Johnson, and this one stings because he was being drafted with expectations of immediate usage. According to Yahoo ADP over the summer, Johnson was being selected ahead of players like J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne Jr., Javonte Williams, Quinshon Judkins and even teammate Jaylen Warren - who has been productive and reliable every single week.
Johnson has been the opposite. Through two games, he's averaging -0.05 half-PPR points per game. Yes, negative. He hasn't earned any meaningful offensive snaps. He's been stuck on special teams. In Week 3, Mike Tomlin elevated Trey Sermon instead of giving Johnson a look, and Tomlin already hinted that's how it's going to be for a while.
This is a flat-out bust for redraft purposes. Even if an injury hit Warren, the Steelers would lean on Kenneth Gainwell before they gave Johnson real run. The bet fantasy managers made was that Johnson could immediately contribute, but it's clear that's not happening.
At this point, Johnson is what we call a roster clogger. He's completely droppable in seasonal leagues. Unless you're in a deep dynasty format, there's no reason to burn a bench spot waiting for something that doesn't look like it's coming.
The Bottom Line: Cam Skattebo, Elic Ayomanor and Quinshon Judkins are rising into bigger roles and producing in spots that matter, while RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson are trending down hard. This is how rookie value swings quickly, and it's why staying ahead of these moves makes all the difference in fantasy.