Week 4 Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense
Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty, creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which, if you have Yahoo Fantasy Plus, you'll notice is now available as an option to help you manage your teams. Every Friday, I'll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
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Last week's column had some hits and misses, but mostly misses. TreVeyon Henderson was on a track to disappoint until Stevenson fumbled twice and Gibson fumbled on the next drive. For the second week in a row, Geno Smith did the opposite of what was expected (although it's worth noting he projects as QB5 in a great matchup this week. He would have made the cut for this article if it didn't seem excessive to write him up three weeks in a row, and if I could bear the shame of potentially being wrong all three times. That's why his mention is getting buried here in the introduction that only half of you will read anyway).
On to Week 4 ...
Omarion Hampton, ChargersTHE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 16.3 rushing attempts, 2.9 receptions, 89 yards, 0.76 TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: RB13 vs. RB17
With Najee Harris tearing his Achilles, Hampton steps into a featured role for L.A. Just how much of a bell cow they make the rookie is yet to be seen (Hassan Haskins could certainly take away some short-yardage and goal-line work), but his role is almost certain to grow, and he gets a strong matchup this week right out of the gate. The Chargers are nearly full-TD favorites against the Giants, which should set up a game script that leads to a lot of rushing for Hampton, especially late in the game as the team looks to lock down the win.
Jake Ferguson (and Cowboys WRs)THE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 8.9 targets, 6.8 receptions, 63 yards, 0.31 TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: TE3 vs TE6
With CeeDee Lamb set to miss the next few weeks, there are a lot of vacant targets to be redistributed in Dallas. While George Pickens, Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin all stand to benefit as well, Ferguson is the guy that coach Brian Schottenheimer talked up almost unprompted this week. When asked whether Pickens would be pushed to the top of the call sheet, he said (courtesy of Coachspeak Index):
Well, we add more rows for more guys. Jake Ferguson's gonna have a big section this week, he's playing really well right now. George is always gonna be a focal point of what we're doing... [his] role doesn't really change - it's more some of the other guys around him that will change."
Green Bay plays zone defense at a top-five rate in the league, which should mean plenty of opportunities for underneath receptions for Ferguson this week.
Josh Allen, BillsTHE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 20-for-32, 245 passing yards, 2.1 passing TD, 40 rushing yards, 0.6 rushing TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: QB1 vs QB4
You don't need me to tell you that Josh Allen is good, but I can tell you that he is in an especially strong spot this week. Buffalo's 32 implied team total is the highest we've seen for any team all season (and will likely be one of the highest we see over the rest of the season), and he gets to face a New Orleans offense that is, by far, the fastest paced in all of football. While there's a chance Buffalo goes away from the pass in the second half and/or benches starters in the fourth quarter if this is a total runaway, they should see enough play volume leading up to that point that it shouldn't even matter. Nobody projects for more fantasy points than Allen in Week 4.
Week 4 start-sit adviceRankings from each Yahoo Fantasy analystConsensus Half-PPR RankingsConsensus PPR RankingsMore Roster Advice: Trade Value ChartsQuinshon Judkins, BrownsTHE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 14.0 carries, 1.9 receptions, 74 yards, 0.42 TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: RB31 vs. RB16
Judkins' stock is on the rise, but it's not as high as it ultimately will be, and it may never again be lower than it is this week. The Browns face off against the Lions, who present a horrific matchup from every direction. The Lions are the single slowest-paced team in the league, which will drive down overall volume for Cleveland. As one of the better teams in the league, the Lions project as 10-point favorites here, which means the Browns are unlikely to run the ball as much as Judkins managers would like.
Detroit also boasts the league's top-rated rush defense, which will hurt Judkins' efficiency. It also doesn't help that Judkins is running a route on just 1/3 of the team's dropbacks (although he figures to start siphoning some of those from Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson). Even if that happens this week, Detroit runs the ninth-highest rate of man coverage, which tends to suppress the receptions that are so key in PPR formats. I'd be very happy to have Judkins on my team in general right now, but not this week.
Chase Brown, BengalsTHE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 17.9 carries, 3.1 receptions, 99 yards, 0.56 TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: RB12 vs. RB5
I'm a huge buy-low on Brown" proponent, but you may be able to wait one more week before his value hits rock bottom. Brown's matchup sets up very similarly to Judkins' this week, facing an uphill battle for carries as a 7.5-point underdog. The loss of Samaje Perine sets up Brown for even more than his usual share of receiving work, but the Broncos play the most man coverage in the NFL which, as mentioned for Judkins, tends to suppress the receptions that are so key in PPR formats. The rate volume is there for Brown, so you should absolutely be looking to buy after this week, but the raw volume and efficiency may be lacking in Week 4.
Chris Olave (and other Saints skill players)THE BLITZ Week 4 Projection: 10.0 targets, 6.3 receptions, 68 yards, 0.36 TD
Week 4 vs. ROS: WR17 vs. WR11
THE BLITZ is a big fan of Olave overall, but the matchup this week does not set up as favorably for him compared to those we'll see going forward. The Saints are still operating with what is likely to be the inferior quarterback in Spencer Rattler (second-round pick Tyler Shough should take over at some point), and they go on the road outside the dome. The Bills rank fifth-slowest in terms of context-neutral offensive pace, which may be exacerbated by the big spread if Buffalo takes a lead and decides to grind clock. I love Olave, but this is a week I'm expecting less than usual from him.