Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Sleeper starts, plus players to sit/fade for Week 4
With three weeks of data now in the books, it feels like we have a pretty good handle on what to expect from teams. We certainly have enough information to adjust our priors and preseason expectations. Matchup data, while not perfect, is more reliable, more useful.
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The problem is, of course, there is A LOT of matchup data to sift through - and who really has time for that? You think that Call of Duty match is going to play itself? Or that delicious double-crust blueberry pie is going to eat itself???
That's where the 'ole Sleeper King comes into play. Let me be your guide to help you find some off-menu players to help lift your fantasy football team this week.
QuarterbacksCarson Wentz vs. PITDespite having a good on-paper defense, the Steelers have given up 20+ fantasy points in two of their last three weeks. And it's not world beaters we're talking about here, as Justin Fields posted nearly 30 fantasy points and Drake Maye compiled 268 yards passing and two touchdowns, good for 20 fantasy points last week.
Wentz could be the latest strong-armed, first-round flameout that Kevin O'Connell repairs and rebuilds. Wentz is coming off a two-touchdown performance, too, having completed 70% of his passes.
The vibes are all off but the matchup is right. Not only is Washington bottom-10 in passing yards allowed, it's how it's giving up that production. The Commanders have given up the third-most yards on deep passes this year. This seems to pair perfectly with the big-play hunter in Penix.
Another two fumbles for Rhamondre Stevenson have him on the precipice of losing his starting job to the highly-touted rookie.
For full disclosure, I've been one of the very few voices saying that Henderson is not actually a clear step up from Stevenson in terms of talent and ability. In my charting of Henderson, he did poorly in zone concepts and also did not post great broken tackle rates. If you give him a clear runway, though, Henderson showed he could hit home runs. Let's see if the Patriots' offensive line can actually do that.
The Panthers have allowed opposing backs to average an unseemly 5.72 yards per carry, dead last in the NFL.
The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs, with Jordan Mason the most recent back to smash them, scoring 23 PPR points last week. In fact, the Titans have allowed FOUR different backs to post at least 15 PPR points against them through three games.
Of particular interest, the Texans are hammering between-the-tackle runs; their 75% inside run rate, per Next Gen Stats, is by far the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Titans are allowing 5.5 ypc to running backs on inside carries, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. I know I advocated for Pacheco last week versus the Giants and he didn't come through. BUT if I may defend myself, he absolutely would have delivered if Andy Reid didn't do us dirty by letting Kareem Hunt, of all people, vulture a short-yardage touchdown.
The Ravens are shockingly dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs and have somehow allowed FIVE different running backs to post double-digit PPR points through just three weeks.
If you missed it, I already broke down my favorite slot receiver sleepers earlier this week.
Romeo Doubs vs. DALDoubs is taking on a Cowboys defense that is atrocious right now. They are dead last by a wide margin in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers.
He's currently third on the team in targets but at the same time, has run the most routes. Don't be surprised if he leads the team in looks this week.
I didn't mention Wicks in my slot column because the matchup is more neutral inside but because Wicks has inside-outside versatility, I can easily see him making plays all over the field.
Despite playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes, Wicks is second on the team in targets, outpacing Doubs and Matthew Golden.
With Golden and Wicks playing about the same amount of snaps, give me the guy who's actually getting targets instead of the hyped rookie who has yet to earn either a huge snap or target share.
Alec Pierce is dealing with a concussion and didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, so it remains to be seen whether he'll suit up this week.
If he's out, Mitchell is in a very interesting spot. I graded out Rams corner Akhello Witherspoon as the team's top corner from a numerical perspective but he's on IR with a broken collarbone.
As a result, the team has been playing Cobie Durant a lot more and he has been a downgrade for the team. Considering his slight 5-11 frame, Mitchell at 6-2, 205-pounds will have a significant size advantage.
Mike Evans is dealing with a multi-week hamstring injury, opening the door for Shep to rekindle his chemistry with his college teammate Baker Mayfield.
Shepard posted a 5/4/80 slash line vs the Jets last week.
It's a tough on-paper matchup but it should be noted that the Eagles have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers on the outside through three weeks. Adoree' Jackson's 2.14 yards per coverage snap ranks as fifth-worst among qualified outside corners, according to Next Gen Stats.
I know this is a matchup column and let's be real, the matchup is not ideal for Washington as the Niners allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. That being said, it's impossible to ignore a player who earned 11 targets in a game the week prior.
Dyami Brown is working through a shoulder injury, which should lead to increased playing time for Washington.
Washington is already outpacing Travis Hunter in terms of snaps and target share, making him more enticing for fantasy purposes than the much more hyped rookie.
File this under Deep Sleeper." The rookie out of LSU is the clear lead in the Jets' TE room and the Dolphins are bottom 10 in receptions, yards and completion% versus opposing tight ends. As a result, they've allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position group.
The Dolphins allowed Dalton Kincaid to score a touchdown en route to a 17.6-point PPR day. Tyler Warren posted a strong 9/7/76 slash line. I would be 0% surprised to see a Taylor breakout game here.
No CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons in a revenge game ... no thanks.
The Packers give up the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs.
The Patriots have been pretty tough to run on, allowing the second-fewest rush yards, while their 2.63 yards per carry allowed to opposing backs ranks as second-best.
The 43.5 point total in this game also has me a bit worried as it's the third-lowest total this week, with Carolina having an implied total of just 19 points. Touchdowns will be difficult to come by.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is in the zone right now. His hyper-aggressive defense has given quarterbacks fits and as a result, receivers have struggled to put anything on the stat sheet.
Minnesota allows the fewest points to outside receivers despite the fact it has faced some of the league's best at wideout. It limited Ja'Marr Chase to just 8.9 PPR points, Tee Higgins to 2.5, Drake London to 5.9 and DJ Moore to 8.6.