Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots for Week 5, plus deep sleepers to consider
Injuries are a part of football, we get it, but my goodness, Week 4 may go down as one of the most brutal weeks all year long.
Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill were lost for the season with devastating knee injuries. Lamar Jackson could miss 2-3 weeks with a balky hamstring. Bucky Irving is in a walking boot and will miss an unspecified amount of time. Just when we thought Trey Benson may emerge as a classic high-upside handcuff, he gets placed on injured reserve with a bad knee. Cedric Tillman also went on IR with his own hamstring injury. Chargers tackle Joe Alt could miss a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain, potentially changing how the Chargers run their offense entirely. I haven't even touched the defensive side of the ball.
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PLUS, considering we are entering the first week of byes, the fantasy streets are in desperate need of repair.
Let's see if the ole Sleeper King can't help. Based purely off matchup data, here are my favorite under-the-radar plays that could help you take home a Week 5 dub.
QuarterbacksJustin Fields vs. DALFields has been up and down this year but the Cowboys defense comes to town to heal all.
Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points and total touchdowns to QBs. They're allowing an eye-popping three scores PER GAME to the position.
Also of note, this unit has also allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks with Fields averaging a strong 64.5 rushing yards per game in the two games he's been healthy. Putting that number in perspective, that's nearly an 1,100 yard pace on the ground.
The Ravens have been ravaged by injuries (again) with a number of key defensive players down and out this week.
Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike has a career-threatening neck injury, DE Broderick Washington was placed on IR, LB Roquon Smith is expected to miss multiple weeks as is All-Pro CB Marlon Humphrey. CB Chidi Awuzie is working through a hamstring issue and missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. CB Nate Wiggins is working through an elbow injury as well.
And oh by the way, a healthy Ravens defense was already giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Stroud looked a lot more comfortable in Week 4, giving fantasy managers optimism for brighter days.
Sad stat alert: Stroud's game last week was his first two-touchdown performance this year and his first over his last seven games. In 2024, Stroud had just six games where he threw for 2+ touchdowns, and just one game where he threw for three touchdowns.
See above.
For at least one week, Woody took over the backfield, playing 58% of the snaps versus Nick Chubb's 40%. Marks also had more carries, targets and receptions than Chubb.
A word of caution though, it was a complete blowout and workload tends to get pretty wonky in those game scripts.
I'm not trying to throw a bunch of cold water on his prospects, as I am fully on board with starting him this week. All I'm saying is, if it ends up being a 50-50 split in a more competitive game script don't be surprised or disappointed.
There was a huge schematic shift as well. In the first three weeks of the season, Marks only ran the ball outside at a 42% rate. As a team, Houston's running backs ran outside the tackles at a league low 25% clip (league average is closer to a 50-50 inside-outside split). But in Week 4, Marks was able to bounce to the outside at a 65% rate.
A few weeks ago, I talked about why outside run rates are, to me, one of the most important stats you can find when talking about running back upside.
And if this shift is more permanent, it's huge for Marks because my offseason charting work showed that he was not a good between-the-tackles runner, while at the same time, was one of the most explosive outside runners I saw at the collegiate level.
The numbers bear this out. Per Next Gen Stats, Marks is averaging 3.0 ypc on inside runs and a very healthy 4.6 ypc on outside runs.
Speaking of, who did Marks gash last week? Oh, that would be the Tennessee Titans. Who is Michael Carter seeing this week? Oh, that would be the Tennessee Titans.
This is a run defense that is getting blasted; they're bottom 10 in yards before contact, yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed to opposing running backs. You mix this all in the stats blender and overall they've allowed the third-most rushing yards and the second-most total touchdowns to the position.
Carter told reporters that the coaches told him he would be starting this week with Emari Demercado presumably holding onto his pass-catching role.
Braelon Allen was placed on IR with a knee injury and the team, for whatever reason, refuses to give Breece Hall a full complement of snaps.
Davis was low-key better than Allen last year (5.8 ypc vs. 3.6 ypc). Don't be surprised to see Davis take home 40-50% of the snaps until Allen comes back.
And even though I've marked him as a deep sleeper, I actually think he's a more valuable add than the aforementioned Carter.
We have visual evidence that neither Carter or Demercado is a needle-mover at the position, meanwhile Davis has actually shown flashes. It's obviously a small sample size, but across 35 career carries Davis is averaging an impressive 5.7 ypc.
Again, I don't know if the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit pans out but I'm much more intrigued by Davis' upside versus anyone who's currently healthy in Arizona's backfield.
The Panthers were awful versus the run last year and they continue to struggle as a run defense this year. They are bottom five in both yards before contact and yards after contact allowed while also being dead last in run stuff rate allowed. The 5.79 ypc allowed to opposing backs ranks as fourth worst.
The run defense is so shoddy that even though De'Von Achane is DOMINATING touches, I can see a scenario where Gordon breaks the plane and ends up being productive in fantasy.
Until we see something different, continue to pick tight ends versus the Dolphins.
Starting TEs have scored 11+ PPR points against the Dolphins in three of four weeks thus far.
Ja'Tavion Sanders is still working through an ankle injury and Tremble's eight targets last week tied a career high.
Same game but I don't think Waller's productivity was flukey. Yes, he only ran 10 routes and yes, he only played 25% of the snaps. But it was his first game back in nearly a year and a half, so it's not out of bounds to think Miami will get North of the Waller" ramped up as the weeks wear on.
Perhaps more importantly though is that I can't get Jonnu Smith's ludicrous usage from last year out of my brain. Head coach Mike McDaniel was drawing up plays for Jonnu and making him one of the focal points of the Dolphins offense last year.
With Tyreek Hill out for the year, I would be ZERO PERCENT surprised to see Waller having a huge role in this offense.
The Panthers have allowed the second-most yards to the position group through four weeks.
You can find my favorite outside wide receiver plays here. As for some of my favorite slot receiver plays, here you go.
Deep SleepersChristian Kirk vs. BALThe Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to receivers in the slot this year.
The stat sheet has been barren but the usage has been solid. He's the clear starting slot for Houston once he was activated, playing 80% of his snaps inside.
The Cardinals are tied for the second-most receptions allowed to receivers in the slot and overall they've allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to inside receivers.
This is the same defense that allowed Hunter Renfrow to score two touchdowns in Week 2.
Lockett has done practically NOTHING statistically but he's run the third-most routes and now Calvin Ridley is looking quite dicey for Sunday as he missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday with knee and elbow ailments.
Let's see if Cam Ward starts to get on track against a pretty soft secondary and leans on the veteran Lockett to help stabilize the Tennessee passing attack.