NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 7's biggest games

There haven't been many actionable NFL betting trends through the first six weeks of the 2025 season.

For instance, favorites are 48-45 against the spread, while home teams are 44-45 ATS. Even totals have been a virtual dead-even split (47 overs, 45 unders, one push).

Things don't look much different from a micro perspective, either. To wit: Favorites of 3.5 points or fewer are 29-24 ATS; teams laying four points or more are 19-21 ATS; and the over is 26-24 on totals of 45 points or less, and 22-21-1 when the total closes at 45.5 points or higher.

Pretty much the lone NFL betting trend that has paid dividends? Underdogs in prime time. In addition to winning nearly half the league's marquee contests outright (10-11-1 SU), underdogs are 14-8 ATS under the lights (63.6%). In the past two weeks alone, prime-time 'dogs are 6-1 SU and ATS.

As usual, our NFL betting trends report shines a spotlight on all four prime-time contests in Week 7. We also have wagering insights on the Rams-Jaguars clash from London, as well as the top matchups in the early and late Sunday windows.

All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Money line: Steelers -250/Bengals +200

These bitter AFC North rivals have squared off 52 times this century, including a pair of playoff battles in 2005 and 2015.

When quarterback Joe Burrow has been on the field for Cincinnati, the Steelers are 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS. Against any other Bengals quarterback, Pittsburgh is 35-10 SU and 31-14 ATS.

Furthermore, regardless of Burrow's status, the Steelers have cashed in 21 of their past 28 trips to Cincinnati (playoffs included), going 12-4 ATS as a road favorite.

The Steelers are in the midst of a three-game spread-covering run after starting the season 0-2 ATS.

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Going back to Week 12 of the 2022 campaign, Pittsburgh is covering at a 65.2% clip (30-16 ATS). That includes ATS marks of 16-8 on the road and 4-0 against Cincinnati.

That said, during this stretch, Mike Tomlin's teams are just 5-4 ATS when laying points on the highway. They also have just one win and one spread-cover in their past six TNF appearances.

The over is 11-2 in the Bengals' past 13 home games (all 11 cleared 43.5 points) and 8-2 in the Steelers' past 10 road/neutral site contests (six topped 43.5 points).

Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

Money line: Rams -150/Jaguars +125

The Jaguars made their London debut back in 2013, and they've returned every year since with the exception of 2020.

In all, Jacksonville has played 13 times in its second home," going 7-6 SU and ATS, including 5-3 SU and ATS as an underdog.

Interesting totals-related tidbit: The Jags' first five games in London went over, then came a six-game under streak before last year's two games easily cleared the closing number.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence played error-free football in his team's 20-12 home loss to Seattle in Week 6.

In his past 36 starts dating to Week 15 of the 2022 season, Lawrence has gone back-to-back games without throwing an interception or losing a fumble just once: Weeks 1 and 2 in 2024.

Lawrence is a -145 favorite to throw a pick against the Rams.

The Rams carry a couple of strong NFL betting trends overseas. Since cashing just once in their first six games in 2024, they've gone 14-5 ATS overall (including a 7-1 ATS mark outside of Los Angeles).

The Rams' only non-cover in their past eight games away from home: a 33-26 Week 3 loss at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog. That one ended when the Eagles - who were clinging to a 27-25 lead - blocked the Rams' game-winning field goal attempt and returned it for a spread-covering touchdown.

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Money line: Eagles -130/Vikings +110

Including the playoffs, the Eagles won 21 of 24 games from the start of 2024 through Week 4 of this season (16-8 ATS).

Now, following upset losses to the Broncos and Giants, Philadelphia is looking to avoid its first three-game slide since going 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS to close the 2023 campaign (including a wild-card playoff defeat).

During that disastrous 2023 finish, the Eagles lost their final four road games. Why bring that up? Because it's the only time since Weeks 15 and 16 of the 2020 season that the franchise dropped as many as two consecutive games away from Philly.

Minnesota will try to extend two solid NFL betting trends when it hosts the Eagles.

Since the 2024 season kicked off, the Vikings are 7-3 ATS at home (8-2 SU), and they've won and covered four of five as an underdog (2-0 SU and ATS as a home 'dog).

In Minnesota's season opener at Chicago, wide receiver Justin Jefferson recorded his team's first touchdown of the season in the fourth quarter. The two-time All-Pro has not found the end zone since.

In fact, Jefferson has been shutout in 13 of his past 17 games (including last year's playoff loss to the Rams). Despite that reality, Jefferson's odds to score against the Eagles on Sunday are as low as +115.

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Money line: Colts +110/Chargers -130

After consecutive upset losses to the Giants and Commanders, the Chargers got back on the winning track Sunday with a final-seconds 29-27 win at Miami.

However, Los Angeles failed to cash as a 3.5-point favorite, the team's third straight non-cover.

It's a surprising NFL betting trend, considering the Chargers were a league-best 12-4-1 ATS last season. Los Angeles hasn't endured a spread-covering drought of longer than three games since going 0-6 ATS from Weeks 8-13 in 2020.

At 5-1, Indianapolis has its best record to begin a season since the 2009 Peyton Manning-led squad started 14-0 en route to losing Super Bowl 44 to New Orleans.

The Colts' lone blemish so far? A 27-20 setback to the Rams as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week 4. That game - like this one - was played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

Including that loss to the Rams, Indy is in the midst of a 2-5 SU and ATS slump as an underdog.

Daniel Jones recorded a season-low 212 passing yards in each of his past two games. Still, Jones has topped 210 yards in all six of his starts with the Colts.

Here's why that's noteworthy: In his first 70 NFL starts - all with the Giants - Jones had only one stretch where he eclipsed 210 passing yards in as many as four straight contests (first four games of 2021).

Jones' passing projection for Sunday against the Chargers: 228.5.

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Money line: Falcons +130/49ers -155

The Falcons covered the point spread in each of their first six games of the 2022 season, all as an underdog (including four outright upsets). From that point through the 2025 opener, Atlanta went 3-15 SU and 4-13-1 ATS.

However, in their past two games as a pup, the Falcons scored outright upsets over Minnesota (22-6 in Week 2) and Buffalo (24-14 on Monday night).

At the opposite end of the NFL betting trends spectrum, San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in four straight home games. That's part of the Niners' ongoing 4-14 ATS slump at Levi's Stadium.

Atlanta stayed under the total in four of its first five games. The lone exception was a 34-26 win over Washington in Week 4 - the only Falcons game to clear 43 points so far.

Going back to the start of 2019, the under has cashed in 58.7% of Atlanta's games (61-43-1).

The last time the franchise finished a season with more overs" than unders"? 2018.

In Week 11 last year, the 49ers intercepted then-Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith early in the third quarter.

Since then, San Francisco's defense has faced 404 pass attempts and not picked off a single one. The franchise's 13-game interception drought is the longest in NFL history.

This week, the Niners go up against Michael Penix Jr., who has six interceptions in 262 career pass attempts.

Kickoff: Monday, 7 p.m. ET

Money line: Buccaneers +200/Lions -250

The Lions' four-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a screeching halt in Sunday night's 30-17 loss at Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog.

Remarkably, Detroit hasn't dropped consecutive games since a five-game slide in Weeks 3-8 of the 2022 season.

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Another impressive Lions-specific NFL betting trend: Since Week 8 of 2022, they're 11-4 ATS the week after a non-cover.

Through six games, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield has a 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's thrown multiple TDs in 11 of 12 games since Week 14 of 2024 (postseason included).

Detroit's secondary? It has surrendered 13 TD passes. Only Baltimore (14), New Orleans (14) and Dallas (15) have given up more.

Coming into this MNF contest, Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has hauled in at least seven receptions in five straight games and compiled at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last five.

St. Brown's stats in his three career games against the Bucs (all since October 2023): 12 receptions, 124 yards; eight receptions, 71 yards; 11 receptions, 119 yards.

Kickoff: Monday, 10 p.m. ET

Money line: Texans +150/Seahawks -185

With last week's 20-12 victory at Jacksonville, Seattle ran its franchise-best road winning streak to nine in a row (7-2 ATS). It's also the NFL's longest active road winning streak.

Another positive NFL betting trend for the Seahawks as it pertains to this week's opponent: They're now 6-1 against AFC opponents since the beginning of last season (4-2-1 ATS).

On the flip side: Seattle has dropped eight of its past 10 at home (both SU and ATS), and is in a 2-7 ATS funk as a home favorite.

Houston followed up an 0-3 SU and ATS start to the season with two straight wins and covers before its Week 6 bye.

Since recording a nine-game winning streak in 2018, the Texans have ripped off as many as three straight victories just once (Weeks 9-11 in 2023).

Also, dating back to the middle of the 2018 campaign, Houston has covered in three consecutive games only three times.

Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba (696 yards) has overtaken the Rams' Puka Nacua as the NFL's leading receiver. Among players with at least 20 receptions, Smith-Ngiba also ranks first in yards-per-reception (16.57).

The third-year pro has racked up at least 96 yards in five games (topping 100 yards four times), and he's logged at least one catch of 36 yards or more in every game (including a season-best 61-yard TD reception last week).

Meanwhile, the Texans allow the fifth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (175.2 per game) and have surrendered a league-low three passing TDs. The only wide receiver who has exceeded five catches or 72 yards against Houston? Nacua, who had 10 receptions for 130 yards in Week 1.