Fantasy Football: Why these WRs are overperforming, despite weak volume

With six weeks down in the NFL season, we have a good enough sample size to start seriously looking at players who are underperforming and make some judgments about both why it's happening and what might take place going forward.

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Here, I averaged together the total air yards, targets and red-zone targets for all the top-80 wide receivers from fantasy football draft season and compared that to their current positional ranking to find 10 of the most interesting overperforming players.

Note: I ran through the same exercise for underperforming wide receivers earlier this week right here.

DK Metcalf, Steelers

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR48

Fantasy rankings: WR16

DK Metcalf has been productive for the Pittsburgh Steelers and is exceeding his low volume thanks to big plays. Even within the context of the Steelers offense, he's holding down a good but not elite 23% target share but his 39.7% air-yard share is a top-10 figure among all wideouts. His air yards per target mark is under 10, so he's had to make the most of his work underneath by being a menace after the catch. He leads all wideouts with 11.7 yards after catch per reception.

DK Metcalf leads all WRs in YAC per reception (11.7) by a healthy margin this season.

Talking out the Steelers offense with @Nate_Tice on the latest Football 301. pic.twitter.com/Qg3KlO0iAG

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 15, 2025

Even down near the end zone, Metcalf hasn't been a featured piece. Despite the lack of other needle-movers at wide receiver and tight end, he had just three red-zone looks on the year, good for 21% of the team's targets inside the 20-yard line overall.

Metcalf is fast, physical and can make field-flipping runs after the catch. However, given just how big-play boosted he is right now, and with the Steelers poking around veteran receiver trades before the November deadline, I'm tempted to label him a sell-high in fantasy.

Deebo Samuel Sr., Commanders

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR37

Fantasy rankings: WR8

I've been pleasantly surprised by how Deebo Samuel Sr. has played in Washington. I thought he was in severe physical decline after his last year with the 49ers. While I may have been wrong on that, the Commanders' coaching staff has also done a great job changing Samuel's role to account for any decline in his ability to win in 1-on-1 coverage consistently ... by moving him to the slot.

Deebo Samuel is getting more run out of the slot than ever this season and that's a crucial boost for a player like him at this stage to maintain what's he's doing

Broke it down with @RayGQue here. pic.twitter.com/6Jpcb6ZLyZ

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 1, 2025

Samuel took a step back last week while playing through a heel injury but I think he's a candidate to score more fantasy points than his overall volume would suggest the rest of this season. We'll see how Terry McLaurin performs when he gets healthy but Samuel should stay concentrated in the layup target role throughout the year. Samuel likely falls out of the top 10 as the season goes on but I don't think he dips down to the WR37 or so, as his volume rank would indicate.

Tre Tucker, Raiders

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR36

Fantasy rankings: WR9

Tre Tucker has to be the biggest surprise among the top 10, maybe even top 30, wide receivers on the season. There's no question his Week 3 eruption in negative game script vs. Washington for 145 yards and three touchdowns is doing most of the heavy-lifting. However, it's not like he's been utterly useless every other week, as he has had three games this season (Weeks 1, 5, and 6) where he's averaged 62 yards per game.

So, while his WR9 fantasy ranking right now might be a bit of a mirage, he's still well exceeding expectations with a WR36 volume ranking. Some of that is due to being on the field for almost every single snap for a team that is often trailing; Tucker has played on 91.7% of the Raiders' snaps this year, sixth-highest at the position league-wide. Almost any competent player on the field that much is going to be a fantasy factor.

To my eye, and based on some of my charting work on him this year, he has some skills to be even more than a competent player. Given that a Jakobi Meyers trade seems imminent, Tucker should be rostered in way more than 48% of Yahoo leagues. There's staying power here.

Kayshon Boutte, Patriots

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR54

Fantasy rankings: WR29

Kayshon Boutte is one of the coolest stories in the NFL, as the young man has turned his life and career around to become a needle-moving starting receiver for the New England Patriots.

Awesome to see this. https://t.co/HYbOwOxcRK

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 14, 2025

Boutte leads the Patriots in route participation at 74% and has three touchdowns on the season. He 100% goes down as an excellent surprise and has been good in his role for this team.

His role is part of the problem from a fantasy standpoint, however.

He almost exclusively lines up at X-receiver and runs downfield and static routes close to the boundary. He can win in this spot but could be a more consistent separator and high-volume player elsewhere. As it stands, he's been targeted on just 14.3% of his routes. These were some of the concerns I outlined with Ray Garvin on our show after Week 1:

Mr. @RayGQue and I debated whether Kayshon Boutte's Week 1 production is sustainable or not. pic.twitter.com/zyYGLYJjnh

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 10, 2025

Since that 103-yard performance in Week 1, he has averaged three targets per game with receiving yard totals of 16, 28, 18 and 43 before showing back up for 93 yards and two touchdowns last week. That's the sort of volatility you can expect from these sort of exclusive X-receiver types, who run downfield routes but aren't elite talents.

Long story short: Boutte is a classic better real-life player for his team" than fantasy starter. You can pick him up and play him in the right matchups during the bye week gauntlet (he's only 30% rostered right now), you just have to be ready to live with volatility.

Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR29

Fantasy rankings: WR5

Emeka Egbuka finds his way onto this list because he wasn't a heavily targeted player in the first six weeks (21st among wide receivers) and only has two red-zone targets on the season. However, he ranks eighth in total air yards, so big plays and downfield looks were helping boost the lack of layup targets.

Generally, if you want to outproduce your expected scoring based on volume, you have to play with a great quarterback in a strong offensive ecosystem - check and check for Egbuka - and most importantly, be a dynamic, excellent wideout. Anyone with eyeballs who knows what they're watching can see that Egbuka was looking like a dynamic talent at the position to start his NFL career.

We won't get to test this theory now that Egbuka will be out the next week or so with an injury but I have very little regression-based worries about him. There will be more competition for targets when Mike Evans is healthy but if you just close your eyes and bet on ascending young wide receivers, you win more often than you lose. Make this particular bet seven days a week and twice on Sundays.

Garrett Wilson, Jets

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR27

Fantasy rankings: WR7

Just like Egbuka, we likely won't see Garrett Wilson for the next game or two, if not more. So we won't know if he regresses from his current pace.

While there were obvious concerns regarding Wilson's pairing with Justin Fields heading into the season - no better week to discuss that fact than after Week 6's disaster overseas - I was pretty excited to see him deployed in an offense that was going to weaponize him with motion, more slot snaps and layup targets. We've seen exactly that so far this season, which has helped Wilson outproduce his volume because, while he's ranked 18th in air yards and gets a lack of red-zone work, the amount of highly-efficient targets makes up the difference.

Wilson isn't in a highly effective offense with a great quarterback like Egbuka but is an equally electric talent. Once Wilson's back, he should remain productive, but he will likely experience some down weeks.

Michael Pittman Jr., Colts

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR36

Fantasy rankings: WR17

Michael Pittman Jr.'s revival has been one of my favorite storylines to start this season. He's gotten a heavy dose of first-down targets and is a reliable zone-beater for Daniel Jones. However, he won't be a target hog in this offense the rest of the way because Tyler Warren is great, Josh Downs is getting reintegrated - even if he misses this week with a concussion - and Alec Pierce has shown some new dimensions to his game. Not to mention, the Colts are sixth in rushing percentage as an offense, leading to Pittman's low volume ranking.

I still think you're holding Pittman because he's a good player in a good offense who plays in a multi-dimensional role. Just expect him to be more of a rock-solid WR2 than WR1, which is still way more than you bargained for when you took him in summer drafts.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos

Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR29

Fantasy rankings: WR14

I was actually a little shocked by Courtland Sutton showing up this low on the volume rankings. However, he only has a 20.6% target share on the season, which ranks 29th among wide receivers and is only 17th in air-yards share. Sutton's problem is that the Broncos rank 21st in time of possession per drive, are middle of the pack in passing rate (17th) and are tied for the league lead with 20 screen passes on the season. Sutton isn't involved in that phase of the offense, as he has zero screen targets this season and had three all of last year.

The fact that Sutton is the only good and reliable player that Denver has in the dropback passing game keeps him alive and able to exceed his expected scoring. He just might be living on more of a razor's edge than you'd think. He does have two games with one reception on his resume this year. This isn't really the metronome-consistent veteran he's billed as in fantasy, simply due to his role on this specific offense.