Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: Best Week 8 NFL selections

Normally, the last thing you want to see is your Survivor pick sending the backup quarterback in. Relying on Gardner Minshew is almost never the plan.

On Sunday, Minshew was already in for Patrick Mahomes before the end of the third quarter. That's how much of a drubbing our pick, the Chiefs, laid on the Raiders.

Elsewhere, the Patriots handled the Titans with ease, but we're waiting to use them later in the season, and those who still had the Broncos available, escaped in a way that somehow topped the Cowboys win over the Giants earlier this year.

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Somewhere, someone had both Dallas in Week 2, and Denver this past week. Which is wild, since they're already sitting on a bed of money, having clearly already won the lottery and married a supermodel, as part of their standing as the luckiest person in the world.

Who remains?

For the first five weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.

In Week 5, we saw the carnage that can only happen in Survivor contests, and it simplified things, as those who have survived likely have done so because they used either the Colts (over the Raiders) or Lions (over the Bengals).

Since then, we've put together a plan for both Colts people" and Lions people" in an effort to go the distance. While that's pretty straight forward, it's difficult to know what teams have been used other than Week 5, so we provide a trio of options for each path.

Week 8 money lines

How likely is a team to win and you'll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).

Money line and implied win percentage for Week 8 NFL favorites.Matt Russell

*We've also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold

Market power ratings

It's not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can't use it again. What is simple is that if you're going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you'll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It's an unnerving thought.

Here's a list of the betting market's current top-18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

1. Chiefs: 20.5

2. Packers: 18.4

3. Lions: 18.1

4. Rams: 18.1

5. Ravens: 18.1

6. Bills: 17.8

7. Colts: 17.3

8. Seahawks: 16.5

9. Eagles: 16.2

10. Broncos: 16.2

11. Patriots: 14.9

12. 49ers: 14.6

13. Cowboys: 14.6

14. Chargers: 14.3

15. Buccaneers: 14.0

16. Jaguars: 14.0

17. Steelers: 14.0

18. Falcons: 14.0

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you're giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 8 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.

Week 8's top choices

The Colts people" path

1. Patriots (75.9%) over Browns

You took the Colts to beat the Raiders, under the strategy of I'll worry about it later" - and now it's later. Especially, if you've already used the Chiefs like the 36% of entrants in the Circa Survivor contest. Luckily, New England returns home from three road games in a row where the Patriots have surpassed market expectations each time.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 11 vs. Jets (NE -10.5)

• Week 13 vs. Giants (NE -5.5)

We've still got Week 11 with the Jets circled as the time to fire away with the Patriots, but if you've backed yourself into a corner having used the Colts and Chiefs, this is the path you've chosen. That is, unless you want to get spicy.

2. Bengals (73.2%) over Jets

While there are plenty of touchdown favorites to choose from, the Bengals are the living-dangerously choice, given they were fade material just two weeks ago by the Lions people."

Naturally, this is more about fading the Jets, who have benched Justin Fields for Tyrod Taylor.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 16 at Dolphins (CIN -4.5)

• Week 17 vs. Cardinals (CIN -4)

• Week 18 vs. Browns (CIN -7)

Joe Burrow.

The only reason to save" the Bengals is on the hopes that Burrow returns with a vengeance at the end of the season. Which is why the list of games above starts with Week 16.

3. Chiefs (82.8%) over Commanders

By rule, those who took the Colts in Week 5 can't do so this week, but there's a handful of favorites between 7-10 points to choose from. One of those is the next most likely team to win this week, and the top-rated team in the NFL - the Chiefs. According to Circa Sports' Survivor availability matrix, 61.1% of entrants still have the Patriots available to use, but if you're in the 39% that have, and you don't trust the Bengals, it's time to play it safe.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 16 at Titans (KC -17)

• Week 18 at Raiders (KC -12.5)

Last week, when they were the top pick, we suggested that the Chiefs were approaching fine with using them against anyone" territory, and after a 31-0 win, here we are. Jayden Daniels' injury has created one more opportunity option for using the Chiefs this week than we had previously envisioned.

Lions people"

1. Colts (89.3%) over Titans

For those who took the Lions in Week 5, saving the Colts for some time in the future - now is that time. If you're waiting for the bottom to fall out of the Daniel Jones-led Colts, that's unlikely to happen this week at home to the woeful Titans and the money line indicates that.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 13 vs. Texans (IND -6)

• Week 17 vs. Jaguars (IND -6)

While rated right in the meaty part of the curve as league-average teams, the Texans and Colts are division rivals who should be playing for something late into the season. Even with a fair amount of decent-sized favorites, if you can take a 14-point favorite at this point in the season, just do it.

2. Patriots (75.9%) over Browns

For this week, those who took the Lions to beat the Bengals in Week 5 are in a more advantageous spot as their second choice is the Colts people's" first. That alone should suggest that Indianapolis is the play.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 11 vs. Jets (NE -10.5)

• Week 13 vs. Giants (NE -5.5)

The more competitive the Giants are, the tighter their projected point spread in a Week 13 game with the Patriots gets, and the more Week 11 is the time to use New England. Those who will have already used the Patriots already will be hoping for a team-changing quarterback injury to open up a comparable option that week, because the Sunday and Monday games that week all have pretty tight projected spreads.

3. Chiefs (82.8%) over Commanders

There really isn't another time where someone would have taken the Colts other than Week 5, and the Patriots were an aggressive choice in Week 4, and to an extent last week as well. If somehow you did, though, the most trust-worthy team in the NFL is the Chiefs. Even if Jayden Daniels is able to go on Monday, the Commanders haven't shown anything this year suggesting they'll pull off an upset in K.C.

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 16 at Titans (KC -11)

• Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5)

Let's call this the coward's pick" this week, because if you still haven't used the Chiefs, they're awfully interesting in Week 16, which is loaded with even matchups, except the one between Kansas City and Tennessee.

Assuming the Colts take care of Tennessee, we'll have our two streams tightened back into one next week for the stretch Survivor run.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.