Week 8 Panic Meter: Are Alvin Kamara's days as a fantasy football superstar over?
My wife tells me all the time that I talk too much. She's probably (read: definitely) right. In my defense, topics like football get me hyped up. Sports are one of those subjects that, when presented with the same information, two people can come to different conclusions. Or, when you approach it from my side, you can spend hours researching matchups, weather and tendencies, only to have the least likely outcome occur. That's why I'll (begrudgingly) admit I ramble at times. Because the players constantly remind me that they get the last word in fantasy football.
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We assign roles and labels while projecting workloads week in and week out. It all might make sense in theory. But reality often changes things. And, in a few cases, they should give us a reason to panic over our assumptions.
Do we really want some of these starting QBs to return?I understand why most backups are in their current roles. For one reason or another, things just haven't clicked when they take the field. And the team invests in a younger talent, justifying the demotion. But for three teams, I'm starting to wonder if they should keep the veteran out there.
Trey McBride spins out for his 2nd TD of the game!
- NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025
GBvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVntpic.twitter.com/yyceqyLKyh
I forgot about the rule where Trey McBride can only score when Kyler Murray is off the field. Correlation does not imply causation" aside, the sudden life in the Cardinals' passing game with Jacoby Brissett only highlights Murray's shortcomings (pun not intended). In a two-game sample, the former Patriots' passer is not only showing up the guy ahead of him, but putting OC Drew Petzing in a better light.
Passing Yards per Game: 299.5 (Brissett), 192.4 (Murray)
Under Center Rate: 42.1%, 20.9%
UC Play-Action EPA per Dropback: 0.33, -0.05
To find a day from Murray that's better than Brissett's 320-yard, two-score game against the Colts, you'd have to go back to 2019. However, the veteran's willingness to chuck it downfield (8.8 air yards per attempt for Brissett to Murray's 5.8) isn't the only plus-up. The QB change has benefited both phases of the offense. With fewer shotguns and more play-action concepts, the primary pass-catchers have been more efficient on a per-route basis (1.50 to 1.74 YPRR for McBride; 1.65 to 1.67 for Harrison). Their rushing success rate has climbed from 36.3% to 46.5%.
No, Brissett is not a long-term solution. But as Arizona sits dead last in the division, the long view should include evaluating the rest of the roster, which a more functional passer would provide.
The Jets are going through the same dilemma.
Tyrod Taylor to Garrett Wilson for the TD
- NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2025
NYJvsTB on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVntpic.twitter.com/1wrR1N8c0z
I talked about the calamity that is Justin Fields last week, so I won't beat a dead horse. And in the case of starting Tyrod Taylor, after last week, you won't find many Jets fans willing to endorse the move. However, again, if there was one QB on the roster who could execute the offense as intended, it's not the guy HC Aaron Glenn was caping for seven days ago.
Pass Rate Over Expectation: +2.6% (Taylor - Week 3), -10.7% (Fields - in full games)
Avg. Time to Throw: 2.57, 2.98
Sure, the bones of a Detroit-like offense are there. If either Fields or Taylor gets under center, OC Tanner Engstrand has spammed play action on 92.6% of their snaps (ninth-highest rate). Both QBs are using the middle of the field to open up YAC lanes for their pass-catchers. But one holds on to the ball too long, and the other doesn't have the mobility they had when they came into the league 14 years ago. And with the options either will have at WR, the only certainty with Taylor is that there will BE passing attempts.
However, as HC Kevin O'Connell is figuring out in Minnesota, whether or not someone on the same team catches those passes or not is a separate matter.
Jalen Carter wrecked this play
- NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025
PHIvsMIN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVntpic.twitter.com/K3frkPsQN1
Admittedly, I'd probably throw the ball to the other team instead of getting vaporized by Jalen Carter. Carson Wentz somehow chose both outcomes. And don't get me wrong, his turnovers have cost the Vikings two games, which would put them atop the NFC North. But the offseason hope that J.J. McCarthy would be ready for the NFL didn't look as promising in his first two games.
Yards per Drive: 20.8 (McCarthy), 32.3 (Wentz)
Plays per Game: 47.5, 64.5
Offensive Points per Game: 16.5, 24.5
Justin Jefferson went from the WR26 in PPR PPG to the WR12 with Wentz. Jordan Addison returned in Week 4 from his suspension and has either a touchdown or 100 yards in every game since. And I'd argue going up against the Browns and Eagles in back-to-back weeks is tougher than facing Chicago and Atlanta. Regardless, whenever McCarthy returns, we'll be at the mercy of his style and ability to pick up the offense.
Overall, each situation highlights the nuances we take for granted in our game within the game. Nobody drafts a fantasy QB with How well do they gel with their play-caller?" in mind. We expect it to happen. That's the point of the offseason! But with these and others, we're seeing just how important it is to understand not just the player, but their development path and how it could affect the offense.
Panic Meter: Moderate to High
Alvin Kamara, Who Dat?For better or worse, I don't think we've talked enough about what's going on down in New Orleans.
Rattler to Olave gets us on the board
- New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 19, 2025
FOX pic.twitter.com/CT0Inyk719
Well, at 1-6, Not much!" is an acceptable retort. But under the losing record has been a fantasy-viable offense headlined by Spencer Rattler. (Almost) Every fantasy asset we targeted in drafts has exceeded its cost. The most notable being Chris Olave sitting in the top 10 in PPR points per game. However, the second-year QB alone isn't the sole reason for the pass-catchers continuing to rack up points for our rosters. Credit to first-time HC Kellen Moore in setting up an offense worth watching on a weekly basis, with a few tweaks to how his receivers are deployed on the field.
Chris Olave: 9.7 (air yards per target in 2025), 13.2 (2022-2024)
Rashid Shaheed: 11.7, 14.8
Juwan Johnson: 6.5, 8.4
Per PFF, Rattler has the eighth-quickest release time while sitting at the league average in passing aDOT. Said another way, he's firing to the parts of the field that'll keep the offense moving. He's 14th in completion percentage. And the short-area throws to the WRs and TEs have been a bonus to fantasy managers. But with the extra options closer to the line of scrimmage, one of our favorite receiving RBs is feeling the brunt of the scheme change.
Target Rate: 13% (2025), 22% (2024)
Targets per Route Run: 16%, 28%
Receiving Yards per Game: 17.6, 36.0
Alvin Kamara has just one TD through seven games, though we knew New Orleans might have trouble getting into the red zone. But his receiving skillset was supposed to offset the drop in team efficiency. Instead, eight other pass-catchers have earned targets within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Shaheed and Johnson have the same number of red-zone looks (7), with Olave leading the way (15). Kendre Miller's injury may net Kamara a few extra totes, but without the same workload as a receiver (or production as a runner), his time as an RB2 may be over.
Panic Meter: Moderate
Panthers are the Seahawks EastThere are some trends that I wish weren't as popular. For the life of me, I do not understand what 6-7" means. An extra gray hair shows up on my head every time my sons say it. But honestly, this shift to a committee in Carolina has me the most frustrated of all.
Dave Canales liked the way the two back rotation worked for the #Pantherspic.twitter.com/om1XmolEWi
- David Newton (@DNewtonespn) October 19, 2025
Unfortunately, the rational part of my brain understands this decision from HC Dave Canales. They're still in contention for the NFC South. Chuba Hubbard was effective enough to earn an in-season, multi-year extension in '24. Plus, Rico Dowdle was breaking franchise records and was mentioned alongside all-time greats like Jim Brown and Walter Payton the week before. Simply put, it's a good problem to have. And since Canales spent time in Seattle as the passing game coordinator and QBs coach, looking to his old team for tips on how to manage the situation is the smart thing to do.
However, this is like 6-7" to me - I can't stand it.
Snap Share: 54% (Hubbard), 46% (Dowdle)
Rushing Rate: 44%, 53%
Targets: 2, 1
It'd be one thing if the results matched the opportunities. Hubbard got the start and all of the touches on Carolina's first drive, totaling nine yards. Dowdle's first run went for 13. He picked up 17 two plays later on a reception. It was easy to see who was the better of the two rushers, and the numbers back up the film.
Rushing Success Rate: 35.7% (Hubbard), 52.9% (Dowdle)
Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 2.14, 3.47
Explosive Play Rate: 5.9%, 21.1%
But I'll be fair. Sunday was Hubbard's first game back, and a lower-body injury would affect anyone with running" in their job title. However, this split will continue to haunt fantasy managers for the rest of the season. Positive matchups like this week's against Buffalo (allowing the sixth-most PPR PPG to RBs) are our only hope. But unlike the Lions or Seahawks RBs, we don't have a high-end passing game to rely on when things go wrong for the rushing attack.
Panic Meter: Moderate
Everything is falling apart in WashingtonSometimes we take the concept of next man up" too far. There are reasons other than the guys ahead of them get paid more" keeping them from the field. Or, the situation is so bleak that expecting them to take advantage of positive situations can be a tough ask.
Take Chris Rodriguez Jr., for example.
This was ruled a TD for Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025
WASvsDAL on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVntpic.twitter.com/Ukczoi0fcI
Normally, an RB getting goal-line carries is a good thing. They'd at least get a mention in a waiver-wire column as a deep cut. But nobody's taking the bait on the Commanders' RB3. They came into the game missing their top two WRs and exited without their starting QB. Despite playing against the Cowboys, who are one of three defenses in the top five in PPR PPG allowed to QBs and RBs, Washington didn't have the personnel to keep up with Dak Prescott and company. And Daniels' injury only exacerbated the problem it's had of not being able to keep its guys healthy through seven weeks of action.
Yards per Drive: 51.4 (Week 5), 36.0 (Week 6), 26.2 (Week 7)
EPA per Play: 0.17, 0.03, -0.19
Offensive Success Rate: 58.2%, 45.0%, 40.6%
Luckily, Daniels avoided serious injury. So, let's say he plays on Monday night, on the road, in Arrowhead Stadium, against the Chiefs defense. Trusting the skill players attached to him becomes a risky proposition. The day is key here, since you'll have to forego other options that play on Sunday. And my reminder of the location and team? Well, the last squad to face the Chiefs didn't have the best time visiting Kansas City.
Several defensive players, Jaylen Watson & Drue Tranquill, are literally having to stretch on the sideline while watching the Chiefs' offense operate.
- Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) October 19, 2025
The offensive situation and game environment are the reasons I'll leave players like Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane and Chris Moore for someone else to add. Sure, the volume might be there for them; Lane earned 21% of the looks on Sunday. But two-thirds of them were uncatchable. And it was even worse for the other two.
After last year, we rightfully looked to the Commanders as a fantasy-friendly team piloted by a Konami-Code QB. But with this latest rash of injuries, trying to capture any sudden rise in volume would be a detriment to your roster.
Panic Meter: Moderate