Vikings vs. Chargers odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football
For the last five weeks, I have been writing about Thursday Night Football games featuring divisional clashes. The last time the Thursday night game wasn't a divisional rivalry was all the back in Week 2 when the Green Bay Packers covered as home favorites against the Washington Commanders.
Now we have our first inter-conference matchup with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to California to play the Los Angeles Chargers. The rash of divisional matchups was fitting to the results of underdogs against the spread thriving in these short week matchups, but will that change with the Chargers and Vikings playing for the first time September of 2023? These head coaches - Jim Harbaugh and Kevin O'Connell - have never faced one another while leading a team.
Let's look to how to bet this game from the standpoint of the spread, total and some props.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 44.5)The current spread is Chargers -3.5, but it's a soft 3.5 across the market, with BetMGM having the vigorish priced at -102. The term soft" essentially means the vig on the line is less than the usual -110 price that sportsbooks set, and so we can really call this more like a Chargers -3.1 line given the minimal juice. That line is spot on with market-based power rankings for this game.
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The Chargers profile as a team with a 1.5 net rating above average, while the Vikings profile just 0.2 points above average. If we take the difference, 1.3, and then factor in the 1.5-2 point home-field advantage, we land right at 3.
The early movement so far has been to back the Chargers in the betting market. When BetMGM opened this game's odds on Sunday night after Week 6 ended, it was Chargers -2.5. The move onto and then through the 3 is very significant - it is the single most impactful one-point move when betting American sports.
This price is perfect for this game, and thus I have no incentive to still bet it in either direction. Understanding the line movement is because Joe Alt is very likely to return to action after a high ankle sprain suffered a few games ago, this line is going to stick at this 3.5 and obtaining any closing line value while the betting cycle remains open before kickoff is very minimal. Leave this alone and understand it has been bet into a Chargers spot.
Total: Over/Under 44.5The game total tells a very similar story as the spread. This number opened at 43.5 and has climbed to a consensus 44.5 across the betting market. I also attribute some of this move to the improved capabilities of the Chargers offensive line and getting their star left tackle Alt back. QB Justin Herbert should have more time in the pocket to throw and the run game should remain efficient and balanced. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for drawing up intricate blitzing schemes for his opponents, but the combination of a shorter road week for game-planning and less practice time - and Los Angeles' boosted offense line, which was recently dealing with cluster injuries - bodes well for the offense here.
Over the last three seasons, the number 44 is one of the most common NFL outcomes for a game total. This makes it a very key number to bet into. Seeing the movement from 43.5 to 44.5, and moving through the 44 is significant to consider in the handicapping process. Following the steam and betting the over seems directionally correct, but it has lost value because now the game needs to land 45 or higher - and 45 is not even in the top 10 most common outcomes of the last three seasons.
Like the spread, I am leaving this total alone. Sometimes the best advice is not to bet a game priced really well. I have no opinion on the way to play this, and feel if the line closes at 44.5, every bet placed now at the number regardless of a winning or losing outcome on one game is a negative expected value ticket, where you are buying a 50/50 chance of winning but paying 52.38% needed to break even, which is the implied probability of a -110 line.
Let's look to play some player props in this game instead.
Player props to targetQB Carson Wentz under 235.5 passing yards (-115)
Playing this prop is about identifying a resistance point. This number opened at 227.5 at BetMGM and has steadily risen to the current 235.5. Now, BetMGM is pricing this with the highest line in the market. When I inspect the line history of other sportsbooks posting a 230.5 line, I can see the line reached 231.5 and has since started to return back down. In sports betting, both sides of a bet can be good bets if the closing line falls in between them. We can safely say over 227.5 would have been a good bet placed early on Sunday or Monday, and also that under 235.5 is shaping up to be a good bet as well. If this line closes around that 231.5 where we saw the resistance hit the market, being on either side with 4 yards ahead of the number carries equal value.
From a football perspective, because most of this betting approach has been market based (which should be the primary consideration considering the spread moved through 3 and the total moved through 44), it's worth noting that the Vikings rank dead last in offensive turnovers and have thrown seven interceptions in seven games. And despite having one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Justin Jefferson and a QB-friendly head coach in O'Connell, their passing yards per attempt sits at 6.1 yards (18th in the NFL). Banking on this passing offense has not been prudent this season.
QB Justin Herbert over 34.5 passing attempts (-130)
In juxtaposition to the struggles of Minnesota's passing offense, Justin Herbert currently leads the NFL in total passing yards.
He is having a breakout campaign in the second year with head coach Jim Harbaugh, with weapons that include a maturing Quentin Johnston flanked by two consistent route runners in Ladd McConkey and the veteran Keenan Allen. The running options have also been bleak for this team.
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First-round rookie Omarion Hampton and veteran offseason acquisition Najee Harris are both on injured reserve and out for this game. Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins took over the backfield, and now Haskins will also be out for this one. Vidal will get a large workload, but he can't be overused, so he and now backup Nyheim Hines will also be used as very capable pass-catchers out of the backfield.
It's no surprise that the Chargers rank second - only behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes - in Pass Rate Over Expectation percentage. Even in game script running situation, the Chargers are turning those into pass plays at the second highest rate in the NFL. Back Herbert to have 35 or more attempts in this game and continue to air out the ball.
I am comfortable risking half a unit on both of these player props and having a combined one unit risk on the game. This game has slim pickings because it is so well priced and relative to key numbers, I would rather not force. That's when betting, which can be approached with smart consideration, turns more into gambling, where no true edge is likely to be found or quantified by the market.