Fantasy Football: Aaron Rodgers in a revenge game vs. the Packers among matchups to exploit in Week 8
Let's talk matchups!
Chicago-Baltimore has the highest projected point total of the week at 50.5 with the Ravens expected to get Lamar Jackson back. Baltimore is sporting a 28.5 implied point total, the third highest total of the week. But if you're trying to decide between players, lean toward the passing assets in this game.
Cleveland-New England has the lowest projected point total of the week at 40.5 with the books burying the Browns. Their 16.5 implied total is tied with the Titans for the lowest of the week. The 7.5-point spread in this game suggests a slightly heavier than usual Browns' passing game script, combined with the low point total, you should probably downgrade Quinshon Judkins just a bit. I'm not going crazy and saying bench him, just to lower expectations a bit. Avoiding him in DFS environments is advisable.
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The Colts have the highest projected point total at a whopping 31.0 points. The massive 14.5-point spread suggests Jonathan Taylor should have a field day and remember, the Titans have given up at least one touchdown and 16 PPR points to starting running backs in five straight weeks.
One of those backs was, oh that's right, Taylor himself, who went full ham sandwich in Week 3 when he scored THREE touchdowns en route to a massive 32.8 PPR day. He's chalky and expensive but getting him in your lineup in cash DFS games feels like the right move.
On to the sleepers!
QUARTERBACKSAaron Rodgers vs. GBREVENNNGGGGGGEEEEE!!!!
You're insane if you don't think Rodgers isn't going to be hyper-motivated to put a big number against his former team.
Four of the last five quarterbacks the Packers have faced have scored at least two touchdowns. The only quarterback to not break through was Joe Flacco, when he was with the Browns and leading their decrepit passing attack.
The Ravens have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes tossed four touchdowns each in recent weeks.
Williams bombed last week but overall he's scored 2+ touchdowns in four of six games played. I think he gets back on track this week.
Flacco has incredible weapons and top CB Sauce Gardner is unlikely to play.
In two games with the Bengals, Flacco is averaging 280.5 yards passing and has tossed five touchdowns.
A note about other streaming options:
Michael Penix Jr. has a great matchup versus Miami but he's dealing with a bone bruise in his left knee; he tore an ACL in that same knee back in 2018. Penix is practicing but if for some reason he misses the game, it's my belief that Kirk Cousins immediately becomes a top-15 QB play this week.
The Bengals stink defensively but are you really playing Tyrod Taylor? Garrett Wilson is likely not playing and now Mason Taylor is dealing with a quad injury and missed practice Thursday. No thanks.
Jayden Daniels is out but I want no piece of Marcus Mariota against that Kansas City-Steve Spagnolo defense. Same goes for the soon-to-be 38-year-old Andy Dalton, who is filling in for Bryce Young in Carolina. While Buffalo isn't as good as it once was, it's not like the defense is bad.
It's a SMASH spot for Bijan Robinson as the Dolphins have given up 20+ PPR points to starting RBs in five of their last six matchups. That being said, there's plenty of meat on this bone to get Allgeier in the mix as well.
I also wonder if the coaches will look to protect Penix and his ailing knee by establishing the absolute hell out of the run, opening the door to more Allgeier rush attempts.
The Dolphins' 5.2 ypc allowed to opposing backs ranks as third worst, they're second to last in explosive run rate allowed, dead last in yards before contact per carry allowed and dead last in total yards allowed to the position.
Kareem Hunt is dealing with a knee/ankle injury and his availability for Monday is looking extremely iffy.
There's a couple of different ways Smith can be productive. If Hunt sits, Smith becomes the primary pass-catching back and the Commanders have given up big chunk plays to running backs out of the backfield. D'Andre Swift scored on a 55-yard catch-and-run and Robinson had a 69-yard reception. Overall they've allowed 7.9 yards per target to running backs, the third-worst mark in the NFL. Given Brashard's 4.39 speed, a huge catch and run is absolutely in play.
With Daniels already ruled out, there's a chance this game gets out of hand in a hurry. Vegas seems to agree as the Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite. It's possible Smith picks up a handful of extra touches in this scenario as well.
It's difficult to get a read on this backfield but it should be noted that D'Andre Swift has seen his snap share dwindle in three consecutive weeks going from 66% in Week 4 to 54% last week. He's been below 58% in two straight weeks. Remember, Swift played 80% of the snaps Week 1, so we're a long way from that.
Monangai's snap share obviously has increased at the same pace and he played a season-high 45% of the snaps last week.
Also I'm aggressively pushing back on the notion that the snap share was because of a blowout." Yes, the Bears won by 12 points but it was a six-point game halfway through the third and nine-point game halfway through the fourth. That's FAR from a blowout.
The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position and they're bottom 10 in yards after contact per carry allowed and run stuff rate.
A.J. Brown (hamstring) is looking dicey as he's missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. If he misses time or is limited, Dotson can step right in and contribute.
Starting outside wide receivers have scored at least 14 PPR points against the Giants in every week except Week 1, when Terry McLaurin was playing after missing all of training camp. Players like Rashid Shaheed and Quentin Johnston got behind the defense, with both scoring 20+ PPR points.
Overall the G-Men have allowed the third-most receptions and the sixth-most yards to outside receivers.
I get that Josh Downs is likely to play this week, adding to Pierce's volatility but the Indy deep threat has played well this year and has seen tons of air yards.
The Titans have given up the ninth-most yards to receivers lined up outside and the 73.2% completion rate allowed to the outside is the worst mark in the NFL.
I'm especially intrigued by the chunk plays given up as the 10.6 yards per target allowed to outside receivers ranks as third worst, a critical figure given Pierce's role in this offense.
Pierce has scored double-digit PPR points in three of five games played and he's done it without having scored a touchdown this year. I don't know why but I'm feeling a Pierce touchdown this week IN MY BONES!
Nico Collins (concussion) is likely out. Christian Kirk (hamstring) is likely out as well. This opens up massive target and snap share for Noel, who has looked dang good whenever he's been given an opportunity to play.
Playing a season-high 43% of the snaps last week, despite the light workload, it didn't stop Noel from seeing seven targets for four grabs and a solid 77 yards.
And the matchup is solid as the Niners have given up the second-most yards per game to inside wide receivers.
Plus, the San Francisco defense has a number of key injuries, including DL Bryce Huff, who is likely out, and starting CB Deommodore Lenoir, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday.
You can find more wide receiver sleepers from my column earlier in the week where I examined air yard trends.
TIGHT ENDSColston Loveland vs. BALCole Kmet (back) left last week's game early and was a DNP both Wednesday and Thursday.
The Ravens have given up the fifth-most receptions and yards to tight ends. Baltimore ranks dead last in completion rate allowed to the position giving up an outrageous 90.7% completion percentage. Don't be surprised if Ben Johnson emphasizes easy completions to Loveland to help Caleb get back on track.
Mike Gesicki is on IR and we saw Fant's usage skyrocket last week. After failing to crack a 50% snap share all season, Fant played on 68.4% of the team's offensive snaps last week. It's a tick under the 70% threshold we like for fantasy tight ends, but I think it's close enough.
With a 90.9% catch rate, Fant is catching EVERYTHING right now.
The Jets have given up the second-most touchdowns per game to the position.
Taylor is nursing a quad injury right now so keep an eye on that, but if he plays and is reasonably healthy, he's in a great spot.
With Garrett Wilson injured, Taylor will be leaned upon by QB Tyrod Taylor and you couldn't ask for a better matchup. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs and the nine touchdowns allowed to the group is by far the most.