Week 9 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Chiefs at Bills is a prime matchup

The Buffalo Bills had a nearly perfect September. They had an undefeated record and just about every other team expected to challenge for the AFC title dealt with injuries or bad losses.

That run turned a bit sour. The Bills lost a couple of games. Other contenders started to get right. But with one win Sunday, Buffalo would feel pretty good again.

For a few reasons, Chiefs at Bills on Sunday afternoon will feel like a playoff game.

If the Bills win, they'll be two games ahead of the Chiefs with the potential head-to-head tiebreaker. Given that both teams have hopes of a deep playoff run, it's not too early to start thinking about home-field advantage in January. If the Chiefs win, they're mostly back. They started very slow but would be tied with the Bills and have the potential tiebreaker. The Chiefs still would be behind the Colts and perhaps the Broncos and Chargers, but to catch the Bills as November begins and be 6-3 after a rough start would feel like a reprieve. The Chiefs would be right back in the middle of the AFC race with about a half of a season to go.

The Bills lost two games in a row, to the Patriots and Falcons, but looked good last week in a blowout win over the Panthers. The Chiefs have looked very good the past few weeks as they got players back from injury and suspension. Kansas City's resurgence has been noticed by oddsmakers, who have made the Chiefs the Super Bowl favorite and also a 2-point favorite at Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

It seems a little bit disrespectful to the Bills, with some recency bias mixed in. Buffalo was the talk of the NFL just a month ago. The Bills have looked vulnerable at times, but still have Josh Allen and a lot of talent around him. You won't get Buffalo as a home underdog that often. Buffalo +2 is the pick for what is easily the best matchup of Week 9. It's quite possible that the outcome on Sunday will have a huge impact on how the AFC playoffs look in a few months.

Josh Allen leads the Bills into an AFC championship game rematch from last season against the Chiefs. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)Todd Rosenberg via Getty Images

Here are the picks for NFL Week 9, with odds from BetMGM:

Dolphins (+7.5) over Ravens

It's possible that the Ravens are energized by getting Lamar Jackson back and pound a Dolphins team that is still bad, regardless of last week's blowout win over the Falcons. But we've been reminded this season that weird things happen on Thursday night.

Lions (-8.5) over Vikings

The Lions are coming off a bye and healthy. That's bad news for the Vikings, who might fade into irrelevancy pretty fast. The upcoming schedule is tough and we have no idea if J.J. McCarthy can play much better than he did in his first two starts. Detroit has the offensive weapons to turn this into a blowout.

Bears (-3) over Bengals

Joe Flacco might not play due to a shoulder injury. It shouldn't matter either way. The Bengals defense is horrendous. The Bears are a bit inconsistent but if they can't move the ball at will on Sunday then there might be problems. Flacco would make the Bengals more competitive, but either way it's a truly flawed team.

Panthers (+13.5) over Packers

The Panthers were terrible last week, but 13.5 points is a lot in the NFL. Also, the Packers have spent much of the season letting inferior opponents hang around. Maybe the second half domination of the Steelers last week indicates the Packers are ready to steamrolling teams. Let's see it first.

Chargers (-9.5) over Titans

Tennessee lost 20-12 in Week 1. Since then their losses have come by 14, 21, 26, 10, 18 and 24 points. In their one fluky win, the Cardinals were going to take a 21-point lead but Emari Demercado dropped the ball before scoring. Other than a crazy fourth quarter against Arizona, Tennessee's ceiling has been losing by eight points. It seems like a lot of points to lay but against the 2025 Titans, it's not.

Falcons (+5.5) over Patriots

The good thing about inconsistent teams is there are upswings. The Falcons have played at a high level at times this season. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, Atlanta will be ready. The Patriots are the better team but in the NFL, it can be a good idea to buy the dip.

49ers (-2.5) over Giants

If you have any faith in the 49ers being an NFC West contender, then this is a game they need. They're coming off a bad performance at Houston, and that seems unlikely to repeat. Cam Skattebo's injury might be a soul crusher for a Giants team that has lost two in a row and seems to be fading. This is a good test of where San Francisco is going this season.

Colts (-3) over Steelers

This line seems strange. Despite the Steelers' 4-1 start, they aren't very good. Their defense is surprisingly bad and the offense isn't great. A two-game losing streak has exposed them a bit. The Colts have been consistently very good this season. Anything can happen in the NFL, but one team is clearly better than the other in this matchup.

Broncos (+1.5) over Texans

I don't think the Texans' offensive issues are solved just because they beat up a 49ers defense that is without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. The Broncos' pass rush is relentless and that's a bad matchup for the Texans offensive line. Denver's offense might not be fixed because it put up 44 points against the Cowboys, who have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Broncos are still the superior team.

Jaguars (-3) over Raiders

There are not many teams the Raiders could play this season in which I'd pick Las Vegas at +3 or less. The Jaguars aren't one of those teams.

Saints (+14) over Rams

This has been a season of favorites covering. And it's not comfortable to pick the Saints as they turn to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. But any NFL underdog getting two touchdowns is probably going to be the pick.

Seahawks (-3) over Commanders

There are a lot of road favorites this week and it's scary to pass on all these home underdogs. But the Commanders won't have Terry McLaurin, we'll see about Jayden Daniels, and Washington isn't a very good team even with those two healthy. Seattle is still a bit underrated and coming off a bye, whereas Washington played last Monday night on the road. This is a mismatch.

Cardinals (+2.5) over Cowboys

The Cardinals are coming off a bye and should get Kyler Murray back. Given that the offense has looked better with Jacoby Brissett, Murray's return might not be a positive. If Murray isn't sharp against the Cowboys' awful defense, there needs to be some serious conversations in Arizona. I'll take the rested underdog against a defense that can't stop anyone.

Last week: 5-8

Season to date: 67-52-2