Dolphins vs. Ravens odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football
Welcome back, Lamar Jackson!
The two-time MVP returns from a three game-absence due to a hamstring injury suffered in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs. League-wide punditry points out that the 2-5 Baltimore Ravens need a win here on Thursday night to start a run and sustain hopes of making the playoffs. However, the betting market slightly disagrees and still prices them as the outright favorite to win the AFC North (-125 at BetMGM).
With the Steelers on a two-game losing skid, the Ravens are still priced at north of 50% probability to win their division and guarantee themselves a playoff spot. Baltimore has five divisional games remaining, is 1-0 in division already and will face the Bengals and Steelers each twice over the final six games of the regular season. Those games will ultimately decide the division winner, but the Ravens certainly do need to maintain striking distance, and a win on Thursday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins is a critical first step.
The Dolphins are a team in turmoil this season. There has been speculation that head coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat. They were projected to be an eight-win team coming into the season, and now they also sit at two wins (but six losses because they have not had their bye week). Miami, third in the AFC East, can all but consider division hopes over as both the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are exceeding or at least meeting their high expectations and cruising to contention.
Going into this game, it does feel like a lost season for the Dolphins and a get-right spot for the Ravens. The question becomes: Is that simply just narrative and forecasting based on the current records, or is this something we can take as actionable from a betting perspective?
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 51.5)A road team north of a touchdown favorite on a short week is very pricey.
On Sunday night after their Week 8 games ended, there was a brief moment when the Ravens were favorites at -7 (-115), before the number flipped to -7.5 (-105) and now -7.5 (-110). This has been one-way action on the Ravens against the spread. Line history for this game shows no point of market resistance.
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While I do like the Ravens in this spot, and even at this price, I think the best way to play the spread is by including it in a teaser bet. The six-point move bringing this line down from -7.5 to -1.5 does fit the main criteria of what is considered a Wong teaser," named after Stanford Wong, the alias of the author of the book "Sharp Sports Betting."
Here is one benefit and one detraction of Wong teaser bets. The betting industry, market wide, has realized these bets carry positive expected value based on the historical pricing of a two-team, six-point teaser being priced at -120. This year, the odds changed, and the flip makes this go from profitable long term to losing long term, as bettors have to typically pay -130 for the same bet.
However, what few people recognize is that the three-team, six-point teaser price changed from +160 to +150, and that 10-cent change carries a less significant value retraction and can still be played optimally in some scenarios.
One trick to optimizing the three-team, six-point Wong teaser is to use legs that do not overlap in timing and to play them before the end of the week when lines are stale. If you place a teaser bet now, and get some closing line value on the other legs, this becomes a +EV ticket.
The best way to play this spread is to make it one third of a Wong teaser for Week 9 at +150. Take the Ravens -7.5 and bring that down to -1.5. One great option for pairing the Ravens is with the Detroit Lions -8.5 down to -2.5. This line is hanging at -9 and -9.5 at some other books, so this is a spot where by Sunday at 1 p.m. ET you get CLV and still qualify as a Wong leg. As a third option, Buffalo Bills +2 up to +8, Arizona Cardinals +2.5 up to +8.5, and Denver Broncos +1.5 up to +7.5 also fit.
Choose two other games alongside the Ravens -1.5, get +150 odds and ideally try not to overlap start times of the games so that you can always hedge or open a middle and have confirmed results of the first two legs.
Bet: Ravens -7.5 in a teaser bet
Total: Over/under 51.5If the detailed discussion of optimizing modern-day teaser bets was a bit confusing in the previous section, perhaps the best angle to still back the Ravens in this game might simply be playing the over.
The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing teams this season. This includes the second-most opposing rushing touchdowns, which certainly does not bode well going against a Jackson/Derrick Henry 1-2 punch. Jackson has been great at limiting turnovers, with 10 passing touchdowns and only one interception this year; an identical ratio to his 40 passing touchdowns and four interceptions last season.
Miami has only forced one interception in the eight games this season. The strength points of the Ravens' offense - ball control, red-zone efficiency, explosive plays and rushing touchdowns - and should work perfectly against a struggling Dolphins defense.
Baltimore's defense has also been injured and simply not effective. The unit is dead last at 30 points allowed per game, ranks 28th in total yards allowed per game and has recorded 7 sacks in seven games. Avoiding sacks with a quick release is one of Tua Tagovailoa's strengths. It is easy to see how both of these teams will light up the scoreboard. On the total, it's over or nothing for me here.
Bet: Over 50.5
Player props to targetWR Zay Flowers over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
RB Derrick Henry over 4.5 receiving yards (-110)
These are two player props I like a lot with a very similar handicap.
Per the game side and total prices, this should be electric offensive output from the Ravens. We know Jackson is returning from a hamstring injury, so it's very possible he is more reliant on his arm than his legs in this contest. Both of these player props are priced best in the market right now; the next best price on Henry's receiving yards is 5.5 (-120) to the over, so a full yard and 10 cents of vig value at BetMGM.
On the Flowers side, we are seeing 67.5 (-114) as the next best price, but mainly a consensus around 68.5 (-115). This receiving yards line is 2 yards and 5 cents of vig from the majority of the market. The football perspective and the market prices align for these to be props to target. Do not put them in an SGP; play them both as straight bets.