Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots for Week 10, plus deep sleepers to consider
Points could be at a premium this week as three different games have point totals projected under 40 this week. This doesn't include the Thursday night debacle we just witnessed between the Raiders and Broncos that had a total of 17 points.
I looked at the slate and every time I thought I saw the ugliest game, another popped up. I saw the Saints taking on the Panthers and thought, Yikes, that's pretty gross." But then I saw a Browns offense that is lost in the wilderness taking on a Jets team that has been absolutely gutted through trades. Of the six quarterbacks between both teams, there might not be a starting-level signal caller among them.
And finally the Davis Mills-led Texans are taking on a Jaguars team that is already without Travis Hunter and most likely without Brian Thomas Jr. Dyami Brown is working through a concussion. Starting tight end Brenton Strange is on IR, backup tight end Hunter Long is looking like a long shot to play as well. Their best receiver, Jakobi Meyers, has been there for about 17 minutes. Oh by the way, the Houston defense has been dominant this year. Fun!
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On top of that, the two defenses you could always count on to flood the market with fantasy points, the Cowboys and Bengals, they're on a bye this week.
If you are looking for positive game scripts, the Bills-Dolphins matchup has the highest point total at 50.5 (the only game this week over 50). Buffalo has the highest implied total this week at 30 points.
Dalton Kincaid is in an absolute smash spot as the Dolphins have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game. Kincaid scored a touchdown and 17.6 PPR points in their previous meeting.
As for other favorable matchups, here are my favorite matchup based sleepers of the week:
QuarterbacksCaleb Williams vs. NYGThe Giants have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, and over the last five matchups have allowed four different signal callers to score two or more touchdowns.
And it's not like they've been facing the class of the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa got them for 24 fantasy points and Marcus Mariota tagged them for 17.
Williams is coming off his best performance of the season and has scored two or more touchdowns in five of eight games this season.
We can stay in the same game and start Dart as well. The Bears have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and are tied for the third-most total touchdowns allowed.
The Bears have also been susceptible to running quarterbacks like Dart. Tyler Huntley was able to rush for 53 yards, Jayden Daniels had 52 yards and earlier in the year J.J. McCarthy ran for 25 yards and a touchdown.
Dart has scored two or more touchdowns in every game he's started.
The Jags have really struggled versus the pass in recent weeks as they've allowed monster games in back-to-back weeks. Geno Smith tossed four touchdowns (the same Geno that led the Raiders to a whopping seven points Thursday night) and Stafford had FIVE touchdowns.
Overall, they've given up 2+ touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in five straight weeks.
The Houston offensive line is bad but the Jags are dead last in sacks per game and are bottom six in quarterback pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats.
The Giants are one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. They get gashed everywhere but are dead last by a million miles on containing outside runs. The 7.3 YPC allowed on outside runs to running backs is by far the worst mark in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, the Giants are dead last in yards before AND after contact per carry on outside attempts.
This lines up perfectly with what Chicago does as the Bears have the second-highest outside run rate and average the second-most rushing yards per game on outside runs.
D'Andre Swift (groin) is a strong start as well should he return from injury. He practiced fully Thursday.
Aaron Jones Sr. is banged up and even if he plays, I would imagine Mason gets a good 50-50 split at worst.
The Ravens have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game and starting running backs have scored at least 12 PPR points against them in every single game except one, where Browns RB Quinshon Judkins scored 10.1 PPR points. Overall in eight games, they've allowed 10 different backs to score 10+ PPR points.
The Ravens have been soft in the middle of their defensive line as 5.18 YPC allowed to opposing backs is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. Mason has been slightly more efficient running to the inside than outside (4.4 YPC vs. 4.2 YPC).
The Seahawks have allowed the second-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards to running backs this year. With the Cardinals a 6.5-point underdog, they could be playing catch-up and Bam could be utilized as a pass-catcher. He ran 15 routes last week versus Emari Demercado's four.
I rarely talk about fades in this space but I thought this was worth talking about as the Bucs have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position and Henderson got a dominant workload last week playing 75% of the snaps.
At this point in the season, you're probably starting him regardless but here's some context on the Bucs run defense. They've given up big games to Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson.... I just listed off four of the best running backs in the league for goodness sakes! No other team has even remotely seen this level of running back talent through nine weeks this year.
Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III (also pretty good backs!) combined to average 8.43 PPR points against Tampa Bay, with none of them cracking double digits.
Despite seeing this insane run of RBs, the Bucs have allowed just 3.9 YPC and are leading the league in yards after contact allowed. This is tough sledding for a running back in Hendo that has struggled mightily in breaking tackles this year.
Wan'Dale is close to graduating sleeper status altogether. Did y'all know he's the WR18 in full-point PPR???? I was legit SHOCKED to see that. Ok, that being said, he's still averaging 12.6 PPR points per game, which is good for WR32. Sadly, that's still better than A.J. Brown (12.4 PPG).
Robinson is developing into Dart's go-to receiver as he's averaging a husky 8.2 targets per game over his last five games.
The Bears allow the third-most fantasy points per game to inside receivers. Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas out of the slot last week caught a TD and scored 18.0 PPR points vs. Chicago.
The Steelers are absolutely hopeless when it comes to stopping outside receivers. They've allowed the most receptions, yards and fantasy points to outside receivers this year.
Eight different primarily outside receivers have scored 15 or more PPR points against Pittsburgh.
Johnston is obviously incredibly boom-or-bust but when he sees a bad pass defense, he's generally come through.
He's seen five different teams that are currently in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers (regardless of inside/outside alignment). QJ has scored at least 11 PPR points in four of those five games.
Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte is nursing a hamstring injury and didn't practice the past two days. His availability is looking pretty unlikely for Week 10 and if he misses, Williams is in an interesting spot.
Seven different wide receivers have scored 14+ PPR points against TB over the past eight weeks. The last time we saw Tampa Bay, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both cracked the 14-point barrier and the Saints offense is cheeks.
The Jaguars have struggled mightily versus opposing tight ends as they've given up 10+ PPR points to the position in five straight games with starting TEs scoring a touchdown in four of those five matchups.
Remember, this is the same unit that gave up an insane 43 PPR points to Brock Bowers just last week.
But even beyond Bowers, no namers like Terrance Ferguson, A.J. Barner and Jake Tonges scored double-digit PPR points against the Jags this season.