Fantasy Football Target Trends: 1 Giants WR could benefit from Jameis Winston take over for injured Jaxson Dart in Week 11

Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let's open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants

With Jaxson Dart set to miss Week 11 with a concussion, Jameis Winston is expected to be the fill-in QB for the Giants. I've added a few Winston shares as emergency help in deeper Superflex leagues; it's not always pretty, but we just want the numbers.

But you have to think Winston playing could be good for Darius Slayton. Winston loves to press the ball downfield, and Slayton is the one New York receiver who consistently runs deep routes. Slayton's aDOT this year sits at 13.8, while PPR-scammer Wan'Dale Robinson slots at 8.0 and tight end Theo Johnson is predictably at 6.6. Sure, Brian Daboll has been fired and the Giants are starting a new direction. But they don't have time to overhaul their offense in one week; they'll have to play the hand they're dealt.

Slayton still doesn't have a touchdown yet, though he's contributed a 9-151-0 line the last two weeks. Green Bay isn't a perfect Week 11 draw, but I'll still look to dial up some Slayton on the weekend, knowing it just takes one long connection to validate the play.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals

Everyone sees how the Joe Flacco trade has revitalized Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But let's not overlook how it's saved Brown's season, too.

Brown was stuck in neutral for the opening five weeks, finishing RB21, RB34, RB49, RB37 and RB28. Those final three games came tied to Jake Browning at QB, and they were all Cincinnati losses. Enter Flacco, and while the Bengals are just 1-3 on his watch, he has produced 117 points the last three games. This is a fun offense again.

Brown is back to the 2024 form we all enjoyed - RB20, RB17, RB5 and RB8 over the past four starts. And did you catch those 14 targets and eight catches in the Chicago game, on the heels of a useful 3-32-1 receiving log the previous week? Flacco loves to wing it downfield but he's also not afraid to dial up Brown, proactively or when a play breaks down. And with Samaje Perine dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Brown's pass-catching role looks secure.

Maybe Joe Burrow returns later this season, maybe not. It might depend on whether the Bengals can cling to the fringes of playoff contention. But even if Flacco has to start the rest of the year, I can sign off on the primary pieces of this offense - and that includes Brown.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts

We're talked a lot about Pierce on this platform the past month, as he's started to spread his wings. He's on a 17-366-1 heater the past four games, though Yahoo managers have been slow to jump in. He's still just rostered in 46% of Yahoo, and while some of that might be tied to the Colts being on bye this week, the tag feels low.

Let's look at Indy's past four games and see how the usage breaks down.

Pierce has run 141 routes over this sample, same as Michael Pittman Jr. Rookie TE Tyler Warren has 132 routes. Pierce has 34 targets (Pittman 31, Warren 25) in the period, and that's been the design of the offense. First read targets break down this way: 31.8% for Pierce, 26.2% for Pittman, and 20.6% for Warren.

Of course, Pierce is a home-run hitter, and sometimes those plays won't connect. His aDOT is 20.9 for this month-long sample, more than double Pittman (8.9) and obviously well ahead of Warren (5.0). But given Pierce's resume dating back to 2024, I think he's earned Circle of Trust privileges. And for the most part, Daniel Jones has been a right answer this year, outside of the mess at Pittsburgh.

I wish the Indy schedule was nicer after the bye: Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars. Three of the first four draws are nasty. But after watching Pierce settle into double-digit fantasy points three times in October, I'm giving him at least WR3 status moving forward.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

It breaks my heart to see Kincaid hurt again; he's listed as week-to-week with a hamstring injury. I will try to hold onto him where I can, because he's having a third-year breakout that's flying a little under the radar.

The Buffalo offense has been screaming for a dominant pass catcher, and Kincaid at times has looked like that guy this year. He's caught 29 of 36 targets, he's bumped his YPC to 15.4 (that would be excellent for a wide receiver; it's ridiculous for a tight end) and he's scored four times. Almost any metric you look at with Kincaid, it's outstanding.

But there's one stat I can't look away from - when Kincaid is targeted this year, Josh Allen has a 155.6 passer rating. As a reminder, the perfect rating is 158.3. As you'd imagine, that's easily the best among NFL tight ends (only Kayshon Boutte betters it among wide receivers).

With Buffalo in a bit of a lull over the past month, it's time to steer into its best players. Kincaid hasn't seen more than six targets in any game this year, but he's made the most of his opportunities. If he's a quick healer, there's a fantastic set of matchups coming later, including dates against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in Weeks 13 and 14. Look to hold Kincaid, or add him if someone is forced to make a Week 11 cut.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 10Wide Receiver

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Nico Collins, Texans	15	7	34.1%
Emeka Egbuka, Bucs	13	6	30.2%
Jerry Jeudy, Browns	12	6	37.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals	12	3	27.3%
Justin Jefferson, Vikings	12	4	29.3%

Running back

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers	10	8	25.6%
D'Andre Swift, Bears	8	5	22.2%
De'Von Achane, Dolphins	6	6	28.6%
Josh Jacobs, Packers	6	5	18.2%
Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings	6	3	14.6%

Tight end

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Trey McBride, Cardinals	13	9	29.5%
Cade Otton, Bucs	12	9	27.9%
Dalton Schultz, Texans	11	7	25%
Tyler Warren, Colts	10	8	38.5%
George Kittle, 49ers	9	9	23.1%