Fantasy Football: 'Trey McBride not only finishes as TE1 overall, he posts a monster league-winning line' — Week 11 Tale of the Take

Fresh week, new matchups, five new swings. We'll hit the gas on players trending up and chase ceilings where the usage and opponent line up. Five new tales, five new takes. Fantasy football, Week 11. Let's go.

Josh Jacobs in hammer spot vs. Giants

The Tale:I planted the JT flag last week and it cashed. Same read here with Josh Jacobs in a game that screams volume and touchdowns. Green Bay needs a steady drumbeat on the ground and Jacobs is the hammer to swing.

The matchup checks every box. Over the last month, the Giants are tied with Atlanta for the most rushing yards allowed at 748. Opponents have slammed 124 carries on them in that span, which is the third-most. Their run defense EPA sits at -26.1, dead-last. Success rate allowed is sixth-worst. They've coughed up a league-high seven rushing touchdowns. It's leaky up front before contact and leaky after. They've allowed 2.62 yards before contact per rush, which is second-worst, then 3.4 yards after contact, which is ninth-worst.

That's a runway for a physical back who finishes runs and stacks conversions.

Game flow tilts to Jacobs. Green Bay's passing attack hasn't been efficient and key pass catchers are banged up. Leaning into the best player on offense is the clean path. The Giants are in flux with limited firepower, which sets up a neutral-to-positive script for the Packers. That means more early-down carries, more four-minute offense, more red-zone chances - where Jacobs owns the high-value looks.

The role is exactly what we chase. Jacobs can handle 25 touches if needed. Expect 20-24 carries with 3-5 targets as outlet work. Behind those splits, the math is simple. If he gets into the paint once early, the volume compounds. If he scores twice, you're cooking with a week-winning line.

This is the kind of spot where you clear 100 total yards, grab the goal-line work, then salt it away late. Feed your stars when the defensive profile begs for it, Green Bay.

The Take: Josh Jacobs finishes as a top-five running back in Week 11.

Trey McBride Detonation Alert

The Tale: Trey McBride is set to go nuclear. San Francisco just gave up 42 points to the Rams and they couldn't cover tight ends to save the day. Colby Parkinson scored. Davis Allen scored. Terrance Ferguson hit a chunk play. Tyler Higbee was active. That's four different tight ends getting theirs in one game. Since Week 6 after Fred Warner's ankle injury, the 49ers have allowed 0.16 EPA per play, third-most in the league. From Weeks 1-5 they were at -0.07, 10th-fewest. That's a real slide. They're hunting answers with pressure, too. Last week, they blitzed on 48.6% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks - and he diced them.

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Enter Jacoby Brissett and the most utilized tight end in football. Brissett has a 55.1% success rate versus the blitz. He's comfortable taking what's there, hitting hot and feeding his first read. That first read is McBride with Marvin Harrison Jr. out.

The volume is bankable. McBride has 5+ catches in 11 straight, tied for the longest streak by a tight end in NFL history. It's not empty work either. Arizona uses him all over the formation. He's the third-down answer and he's the red-zone plan. When the ball needs to move, it finds 85.

Context lines up. Arizona is 3-6 and at home with a 48.5 total. The Cardinals need this one and the cleanest path is through its best player. San Francisco's communication on the back end has slipped. Its pressure packages are leaving voids and linebackers are late to close space. That's exactly where McBride lives. Expect quick hitters to start, shot plays off play-action when the blitz shows and multiple looks inside the 10.

The floor is targets. The ceiling is the kind of line that flips matchups.

The Take: Trey McBride not only finishes as TE1 overall, he posts a monster matchup-winning line.

Jaylen Waddle(s) his way to the top 5

The Tale: Jaylen Waddle continues to produce. Over the last two weeks, he has stepped into centerstage for Miami with 166 yards and a touchdown. He hasn't been a gadget guy in this stretch. He's the first read for the QB Tua Tagovailoa and the spark the offense needs when it stalls. Since Tyreek Hill went out in Week 4, the usage is exactly what you want for a fantasy WR1 profile. Waddle sits at 48 targets, 32 receptions, 533 receiving yards, three touchdowns and 25 first downs in that span. That's steady volume with real drive-finishing value - which is how you rack up weekly top-10 results.

Washington is a get-right spot for wideouts. The Commanders are banged up on the back end and they've bled efficiency in zone, allowing the most points per dropback in those looks, per Fantasy Points data. Miami's motion and pace stress that style and De'Von Achane's speed forces second-level defenders to freeze. That's when Waddle wins. You don't need trickery here, just rhythm throws and space, and he's been cashing those chances for two straight weeks. He also handled 38% of Tagovailoa's passing yards in that span, which tells you where the ball is going when Miami needs a play.

The game environment lines up, too. Miami is favored by 2.5 points, which indicates a clean script and red-zone trips. Waddle's role near the goal line has been sticky and he's earning those targets without needing 14 targets to get there. Give me double-digit looks with 8-10 catches in his range, plus at least one shot that flips the matchup. If Tua stays on schedule and the defense shows the same soft spots we've seen, Waddle is set up to smash.

The Take: Jaylen Waddle finishes as a top-five wide receiver in Week 11.

NFC South's best in Atlanta: Rico Dowdle vs. Bijan Robinson

The Tale: This sets up as a two-back showcase. Against a Falcons pass rush that will be problematic for Bryce Young, Carolina's best path is to feed its star back and keep the ball out of Young's hands. Atlanta should do the same thing with Bijan Robinson. QB Michael Penix Jr. has been better than Young but neither is lighting it up, so both teams want to run it and ride their horses.

For Carolina, it's simple: Rico Dowdle. He's third in rushing yards and sixth in carries this season, the exact profile you lean on when you want a controlled game. Over the last four weeks, Atlanta ranks third-worst in rushing EPA allowed. It's tied with the Giants for the most rushing yards allowed in that span and has given up six rushing touchdowns, second-most. It's getting gashed to the tune of five yards per attempt. Now that the Panthers are done toying with a Chuba Hubbard timeshare, Dowdle should shine.

And Bijan should answer. Carolina's front has been poor, too. Over the same four-week window, it's allowed 4.7 yards per rush, 11th-most, with 552 rushing yards allowed, sixth-most. It's also in a three-way tie for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed. Even with recent sub-50 rushing games, Robinson's receiving floor is money and this matchup finally gives him room to pop chunk gains on early downs.

Quarterback play pushes everything further to the ground. Young hasn't cleared 200 passing yards since Week 2 and he's topped 150 only twice since then. This doesn't look like a shootout. Market has Atlanta favored by 4.5 with a 41.5 total, which fits the script.

The Take: Bijan Robinson finishes as a top-10 running back; Rico Dowdle finishes top-five in Week 11.

Joe Flacco smashes again

The Tale: Joe Flacco and Ja'Marr Chase do it again. This is a rematch a month after Pittsburgh saw Flacco's second Bengals start. He dropped 342 yards and fed Chase with 23 targets. The latter finished with 16 receptions and 161 yards. Now, Cincinnati comes off a bye while Pittsburgh flies back from Los Angeles after a grind of a game. Fresh legs versus tired old ones matters in November.

There isn't a corner on this Steelers defense who can run with Chase for four quarters. When Flacco has a guy he trusts, he feeds him until the defense proves it can stop it. It didn't. Expect Cincinnati to pick up where it left off with quick answers on early downs, then the same back-shoulder and intermediate shots that let Chase bully matchups. A fresh Tee Higgins only widens the windows for this offense, along with Chase Brown playing better on the ground.

Flacco knows the clock is ticking with chatter about Joe Burrow returning if the playoff picture breaks right. Borrowed time means aggressive football. Let it rip, keep pressure on a defense that just played a physical road game and keep the chains moving through your stars. Pittsburgh's offense has been up and down, so a couple of explosive Chase plays, plus a red-zone conversion, is all it takes.

We don't need Flacco to be perfect. Get the ball to No. 1 and ride that fantasy production that will follow.

The Take: Joe Flacco finishes as a top-10 quarterback in Week 11.