Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots for Week 11, plus deep sleepers to consider
Could fantasy football fireworks be in the cards for a pivotal Week 11? If we're looking at the projected totals for the week, there are quite a few high-scoring games on the docket, which could indicate some serious touchdown scoring across the board.
There are two games with totals over 50 points and an additional five games with totals projected above 48 points.
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Conversely, there are only four teams with implied totals of less than 20 points this weekend: the Panthers, Titans, Browns and Giants. The Texans-Titans slowdown showdown has the lowest projected total at 39.5; I'd try to avoid this game if at all possible.
But if we're chasing big points, Cincy-Pittsburgh should certainly have your attention. Both pass defenses are atrocious and the Steelers could be without key defensive figures in Darius Slay and Alex Highsmith, as both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Monday Night game between the Cowboys and Raiders is also expected to flow fantasy points with a 50.5 projected point total. We're hoping Ashton Jeanty can keep the good times rolling versus a defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
More on both games below.
OK, with that, let's get to my favorite sleepers of the week based on matchup data.
QUARTERBACKSAaron Rodgers vs. CINThe Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (fppg) to quarterbacks; they've been terrible all year long so this is no shock.
Remember, Rodgers tossed four touchdowns against this unit and scored 24.6 fantasy points just a handful of weeks ago.
Geno's been bad, but we just can't get around the matchup as the Cowboys have allowed the most fppg to the position.
And remember, against the bottom dregs, Geno's actually done well. He had a three-touchdown game against the Commanders and posted an Abe Lincoln (four scores) against the Jags. Both teams rank in the bottom four of fppg allowed to QB.
Two QB matchups that I'm ignoring: Tua Tagovailoa versus Washington and J.J. McCarthy versus Chicago. The Commanders are a mess defensively but Tua's entirely too unpredictable. He gives you no rushing floor and he's thrown for fewer than 210 passing yards in four of his last five games.
McCarthy, meanwhile, is devolving. He could provide rushing value for sure but I can't help but remember what Dennis Allen did to him for three quarters in their Week 1 matchup. With more tape and increased inconsistency, I wonder if Allen boxes up McCarthy for all four quarters this week.
RUNNING BACKSWoody Marks vs. TENThe Titans have allowed the fifth-most fppg to the position group and remember, Marks smashed this team earlier in the year when he racked up 119 total yards and finished with nearly 28 PPR points in Week 4.
The 4.92 ypc allowed to running backs ranks as fifth worst, and the 14 total touchdowns allowed ranks as dead last.
The Bills defense is far from shut-down; the 5.36 ypc allowed to running backs ranks as third worst and they rank dead last in yards after contact per carry allowed.
Starting running backs have scored at least 12.5 PPR points in seven of 10 games this year.
The 49.5 point total for this game hints at expanded touchdown exposure.
Despite the fact that the Broncos have allowed the fifth-fewest fppg to RB, backs attached to even semi-decent offenses have done well. Javonte Williams, Cam Skattebo, Saquon Barkley, Omarion Hampton and Jonathan Taylor all posted between 17.5 and 29.5 ppr points against Denver.
With LB Alex Singleton battling cancer and CB Pat Surtain II banged up, the Broncos defense isn't operating at full strength.
Hunt, one of the league's premier TD scorers, has scored six times over his last seven games.
I'm not breaking any ground here; the Cowboys have been physically unable to defend the perimeter. They've given up the most fppg to outside receivers.
Dallas has been the magic elixir for struggling receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. scored 22.6 PPR points, Tetairoa McMillan 17.9; Garrett Wilson, 19.1; and Romeo Doubs, a whopping 29.8 PPR points.
The Jags have struggled mightily defending outside receivers as they've given up the second-most receptions and the third-most yards to those receivers lined up outside.
Justin Herbert has leaned on QJ around the end zone as he scored six times in just nine games played. Meanwhile, the Jags have allowed the second-most touchdowns per game to the outside.
The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers.
Coleman saw a solid eight targets last week and also scored a touchdown.
The 49.5-point game total is the third-highest of the week, with Buffalo having an implied total of 27.5, the second-highest of the week. That's solid potential TD exposure.
With Rashod Bateman (ankle) working through an injury, snap share is wide open. Could Hopkins turn back time and be more of a full-time player for the Ravens?
Hopkins only played 27% of the snaps last week, but outpaced Tylan Wallace (12.1% snap share).
The Browns have allowed eight touchdowns to outside receivers this year, tied for the fourth most per game.
The Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up inside, having given up the most receptions and yards per game to the inside.
Washington also ranks dead last in yards per pass attempt, allowing an eye-popping 10.62 yards per pass attempt. No other team allows even 9.5 yards per attempt.
The Dolphins wideout has had 4+ receptions or a touchdown in five of his last six games.
Coming off a career-high 124 yards last week versus Baltimore, Nailor could potentially build upon his first career 100-yard game as the Bears have given up the most touchdowns (9) and the fourth-most fppg to inside receivers.
The Bengals have been gashed everywhere and tight end is no exception. They've allowed the most fppg to the position.
In their previous meeting, The Fryer-Man went ballistic, scoring 28 ppr points with a 6/5/111/2 TD line.
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most fppg to TE with Miami being bottom five in yards, completion percentage, yards per target and touchdowns per game to the position.
Ertz has seen strong volume over his last five games, averaging 5.6 targets per game and he's had 4+ catches in four of those five games.
The Commanders have given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to TE.
Mike McDaniel is like a moth to flames when it comes to throwing the ball to his tight end.
Dulcich's snap share since being activated: 27.5% in Week 8, 35.9% in Week 9 and 58.5% last week.