Fantasy Football: Puka Nacua's touchdown-upside gets even lower and 9 other stats that may go overlooked from Week 11
Each Monday, fantasy analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 11 had plenty of notable stats. What keys to fantasy football success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
34.7%
Puka Nacua's red zone route share since returning from injury three weeks ago. The Rams' game plan of late has lowered Nacua's already low TD upside (compared to his star-level play). The talk of the town has been the 13-personnel usage in Los Angeles. Not only has it lowered Nacua's route share in general from around 65-85%, but it drops off more in the most important area of the field. Matt Harmon pointed out on Sunday morning's fantasy show that Nacua had run zero routes out of 13 personnel this season (1 RB, 3 TE). That stayed true on Sunday, killing Nacua's TD potential when L.A. has used 13 personnel on 59% of their red zone dropbacks over the last three games.
When Nacua has been healthy, he has out-targeted Davante Adams outside of the red zone 80 to 59. Yet when the Rams get inside the 20, that flips to Adams out-targeting Nacua 19 to 7. Nine games into the season for Nacua and only seven red zone targets on the year, resulting in two touchdowns. So yes, his touchdown total is low compared to his targets once again, but there is a reason. It's only been getting worse as of late. Believe it or not, it's hard to score when you're not on the field, and if the Rams offense keeps the same tactics going forward, it will lower their star wideout's TD hopes.
Davante Adams now has 7 receiving touchdowns over the last 4 games.
- Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 17, 2025
The distance in yards of those catches:
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
15-12
Bhayshul Tuten's carries advantage over Travis Etienne Jr. before his fourth-quarter injury. After having 80% of the carries in Week 10, Etienne had under 50% on Sunday. The committee was split down the middle in rushing work, including the red zone, with Etienne still controlling the bulk of the receiving. However, Etienne hasn't had 30+ receiving yards in a game since Week 14 of last season, making the role a little less valuable than likely perceived.
Etienne still managed to post 19.3 fantasy points, the sixth-most among running backs on the week, but likely won't have the Jaguars calling 42 run plays on a week-to-week basis. Jacksonville entered the week ranked 15th in carries to RBs per game with 21.1, making a 50/50 split devastating to Etienne's fantasy value if Tuten were to be back healthy. Based on his fantasy points per carry, if Etienne lost 30% of the Jacksonville rushing attempts, as he did in Week 11, the difference would cost Etienne over four fantasy points per game.
Watched every play very closely (sometimes multiple times)...
- Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) November 16, 2025
I wish Bhayshul Tuten did not get hurt. This was by far his best game - he saw the creases/cutback lanes and was running through contact very well.
Hoping his injury is not long.
6-1
The carry split for RJ Harvey in the fourth quarter compared to Jaleel McLaughlin. Harvey was on the field for 37 snaps with no other Denver RB having more than eight. After a rough start, his six carries in the fourth quarter were a good sign going forward after splitting exactly 50-50 through the first three quarters. We knew going into this game the Chiefs would make for a tough matchup, so the positive sign of 61% of the RB touches going to the rookie is just as important as the lack of production.
Another encouraging sign was the receiving game. If I were to predict anything negative about Harvey's Week 11 usage, it would've been McLaughlin or Tyler Badie being the main passing-down back. The opposite, thankfully, came true. Harvey ran 19 of the 26 RB routes for the Broncos, which elevates his volume potential going forward. The one negative in his usage was McLaughlin getting the lone goal-line carry, which I'm not overly worried about. Harvey controlled the large majority of the red zone snaps, with McLaughlin's two snaps and two carries (the final being a goal-line TD) coming directly after three straight touches for Harvey.
91.2%
Of snaps played for Emanuel Wilson after the Josh Jacobs injury. Wilson becomes an immediate No. 1 waiver add with Jacobs potentially missing time. The Green Bay backup running back has flashed before and earned a bellcow role without the Packers star back on the field. In games with 10+ touches in his career, Wilson has scored 13.0 fantasy PPG, with Sunday being the only one playing over 50% of the snaps.
Wilson inherits a great fantasy situation with a top-level offense. As a backup RB, he has a very high rate of touches per red zone snap at 45%. It's not as high as Jacobs, but it shows he can have some similarities to Jacobs' red zone usage that's made him an elite fantasy running back. The reason Wilson is a backup isn't from a lack of efficiency. His yards after contact per attempt is 3.04, just 0.04 lower than Jacobs' average. Green Bay has shown trust in him as a 1-to-1 replacement when it comes to usage, and the former UDFA has proven he's worthy of that trust.
11.9
Fantasy PPG for Jared Goff when playing in temperatures of 50 degrees or lower. Ben Solak pointed out the struggles Goff has faced in his career when playing out in the cold and the consistent lack of production. In his 17 such games, Goff has 19 passing touchdowns and just 217 yards per game. But... that's where the bad news ends.
The Detroit Lions offense has once again been a juggernaut this season. This can open a buy window for Lions fantasy players who will not have to deal with this going forward. With seven games remaining, the Lions' only game outside of a dome is in Week 18, when fantasy football is a thing of the past. Detroit's next three games are at home, and the two games in the fantasy playoffs that are on the road include a Goff revenge game in Los Angeles against the Rams and a divisional matchup in Minnesota; two stadiums that also have domes. There's no reason Amon-Ra St. Brown shouldn't get right back on schedule after only catching two of his 12 targets in the Monday night loss in the Philly cold.
You can see the accuracy drain on Goff in this weather anytime he tries to drive the football. In his career outdoors under 50 degrees, he's a sub 60% completion passer.
- Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 17, 2025
17.4
Half PPR fantasy PPG for Jameson Williams over the last three weeks. Whether it's from the Lions coaches saying they failed him, Dan Campbell taking over playcalling or a mixture of both, it's working. After having 6+ targets in just two of seven games, Williams now has at least six targets in each of his last three games. In this offense, that's enough. The targets Williams receives are much more valuable than your average NFL receiver.
The second number is 11.2. The yards per target for Williams on the season, third-best among WRs. Nearly half of his fantasy points in this stretch have come from play-action passing. The explosive passing game that Williams plays a big part in this very efficient offense makes his ceiling one of the best when he is getting the volume. He's not St. Brown, but if Williams can keep solid target numbers, his ceiling value outweighs the risk of his floor.
85.1%
Of routes run for Ricky Pearsall in his first game back. Zero receiving yards. A big positive and a bigger negative. In fantasy, we are looking forward, and I believe the positive will end up outweighing the negative of Week 11. Kyle Shanahan didn't make it sound like Pearsall was a part of the gameplan off the knee injury despite playing on nearly all passing downs. He did, however, speak of Pearsall as a true WR1 for this San Francisco team.
Through Brock Purdy's injury and multiple receiver injuries, San Francisco is still third-best in the NFL in receiving fantasy PPG. The Shanahan offense is inevitable. The sample size of Pearsall's last five complete games, averaging 98 receiving yards, means more to me than his goose egg off of injury for predicting his future. After entering Sunday with seven straight games of at least four receptions, I'll wait to panic until it's more than just one poor game.
Kyle Shanahan said that Ricky Pearsall is "not all the way back yet," per the Fox broadcast.
- Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) November 16, 2025
Pearsall has 0 yards in the first half so far. pic.twitter.com/vJH8pc6ypO
2.53
Nico Collins yards per route with Davis Mills this season, which would rank fourth best in the NFL. Last season with QB C.J. Stroud, Collins' yards per route was even better at 2.88, but this season it has dropped to 1.84 with the Texans franchise QB. The volume on a per route basis has been close to the same. The efficiency, however, has been inconsistent.
The biggest difference between the two quarterbacks has been the accuracy when targeting Collins downfield. On throws of 15+ air yards, Mills has hit Collins five times to Stroud's four times. The issue: Stroud has had one fewer completion on double the targets, 16 downfield targets to eight. The downfield targets are the bread and butter to Collins fantasy value, and not only is Stroud targeting him downfield less than Mills, but less efficiently.
Another factor in this is the Houston pass protection. It's well known that the offensive line has been struggling. On those downfield passing attempts, Collins has just 18 receiving yards on 179 air yards from Stroud when he is under pressure. In his short time, Mills has still been able to get Collins 80 receiving yards on downfield attempts under pressure. When Stroud returns, Collins needs him to be able to deliver the ball downfield more consistently, something we've seen from Mills this season.
Nico Collins WR8 in PPG since Week 2 pic.twitter.com/OVReqM9U3O
- Joel Smyth (@fantasysmyth) November 16, 2025
82.6%
Of the Texans RB touches went to Woody Marks, 10% higher than his previous season high last week. He's not a week-to-week must-start, but Marks can still be a solid flyer at the flex position going forward. Houston's coaches have backed up their support of rookie playmakers with Marks continuing to earn more work. The last time Marks busted after a big game, he had seven touches. This time, 19.
The Mills led offense isn't spectacular, but Marks is getting enough volume to have boom weeks. Buffalo is the next matchup on Thursday Night Football, a defense that has struggled against the run consistently this season and just allowed a three-touchdown day to Sean Tucker. Besides the Jets in Week 2, every single team has had a running back score a rushing touchdown against the Bills. Seven of these teams paired that with 100+ yards rushing. He isn't the dominant fantasy piece, but he does provide some hope for lineups in need.
32.1%
Of Washington's RB carries went to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a career low. The Commanders rookie disappointed once again in Madrid on Sunday morning. Washington ranks 24th in scoring offense compared to fifth-best in 2024, the biggest difference between what made Brian Robinson Jr. successful in this same spot last year as Croskey-Merritt. This wasn't random. With Chris Rodriguez Jr. being fully healthy, the coaching staff pivoted to a different rushing attack as alluded to earlier in the week. There are better upside options than Croskey-Merritt on waivers with higher hopes of landing in the end zone if you need a flyer going forward.
We'll lean in on him" https://t.co/fmU9LXjNrxpic.twitter.com/NnfgOVEfrw
- The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 16, 2025