Fantasy Football Week 12 Panic Meter: Just when you thought all was right with TreVeyon Henderson, doubt creeps back in
Some things never change in the NFL. Well, actually, it's the consistently altering landscape that's the constant. Player development has us checking in on our favorite rookies and early-career starters to see if we can be more confident in putting them in lineups. Caleb Williams dueling with J.J. McCarthy was the league's version of The Trust Game. But when we get this deep into the season, the league throws us a couple of curveballs.
The weather, wind and some rain, had us second-guessing our lineups before Sunday's kickoff. And now, a slew of injuries welcome us into Week 12. If there's anything we can expect, the moment we feel like we understand what to do, the action will send us right back to square one. However, in the case of a few scenarios, I'm not completely panicking yet.
Scoring TDs in New England is bad? Well, kind ofOK, I don't want to get personal. But we've all been hurt before. Relationships can be tough, and making amends or working past the pain can be hard. So, forgive me for not screaming in my living room watching the Patriots' offense on Thursday night.
Four TDs in the last two weeks for TreVeyon Henderson!
- NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2025
NYJvsNE on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPluspic.twitter.com/Gcgm6QXxjQ
Imagine what managers with TreVeyon Henderson on their team have had to go through. From Nameplate Gate to the Five-Minute Back, positive news for the rookie has been hard to come by. It didn't matter that Antonio Gibson suffered a season-ending injury. Rhamondre Stevenson got more work. Stevenson fumbled, and we saw even less of the Patriots' second-round pick. However, the veteran's toe injury left HC Mike Vrabel no choice. Henderson had to play more. And his opportunity shares have been what we've wanted all season.
Rush Attempts: 27% (Weeks 6-8), 67% (Weeks 9-11)
Target Rate: 3%, 13%
Short-Yardage Share: 27%, 63%
I've often said that necessity is the mother of invention. Well, having your starting and third-string RB hurt would create a need for a multi-purpose rusher. So lucky Henderson was around! It took the former Buckeye eight weeks to generate four explosive runs on the amount of touches he earned with everyone else around. He notched the same total in three games with the backfield to himself. His receiving skill set from college has shone (5.4 YAC per reception). Henderson's pass-blocking is, at worst, improving, as he hasn't given up a sack. But as I watched the non-TD carries from him, my worry for him started to mount.
Rushing Success Rate (since Week 9): 42.6%, 28th (out of 41 RBs - min. 30% rushing share)
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 14.9%, 27th
The Jets had just gutted their run defense at the trade deadline, and Henderson was still only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. His down-to-down efficiency is still an issue. But I don't want to frame the issue simply from one side. Of course, more experience should help him. However, his ineffectiveness on early downs short-circuits what Drake Maye and the passing game can do. Maye's average distance to the sticks on third down was 8.2 yards. So, despite the box score, the first-year RB still needs some help.
To be clear, I'm not saying Henderson will go back to a 30% snap share when Stevenson is active, which could be as soon as this week. If anything, their split should be closer to 50-50, with Henderson's pass-catching giving him the edge. However, until we see one of the Pats' RBs (preferably the younger one) help take the pressure off their QB, it'll be a committee requiring that right game script for either to be fantasy relevant.
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London (And Penix) has FallenHonestly, if you have about 100 minutes to spare, any of the Has Fallen" series are a fun rewatch. Morgan Freeman playing, well, anyone, including the president, is fun as he inserts gravitas into any role. The premise is as chaotic and frenetic as the title and posters suggest. I'd liken the movies to Atlanta's offense, but there's no Mike Banning strolling through the doors of Mercedes-Benz Stadium to save the day.
Michael Penix Jr. landing on IR with a knee injury coupled with Drake London's PCL injury, and the Falcons look cooked. And my reaction isn't just because the offense will be without two of their three most valuable offensive starters. Sure, we should expect a drop-off in talent. However, we've seen Kirko Chainz" in action already this season, and the results were the opposite of encouraging.
Play-Action: 2.9% (Cousins), 19.0% (Penix)
EPA per Play: -0.37, 0.03
Scramble Rate: 0.0%, 4.3%
Coincidentally, Cousins' Week 8 start came without London, too. However, the veteran QB's limited (read non-existent) mobility further constrained the passing game. He took four snaps under center. OC Zac Robinson couldn't take the pressure off Cousins by dialing up more play-action concepts because he couldn't move like he did before the Achilles' injury. Kyle Pitts was the only viable pass-catcher, as his 4.6-yard aDOT kept things easy for his QB. Regardless, Miami came in with the perfect game plan: make the Falcons beat them through the air. It's part of why I have some concerns about Bijan Robinson as a locked-in RB1 for the remainder of the season.
Stacked Box Rate: 55.6% (Week 8), 27.5% (All Other Weeks)
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 0.0%, 32.9%
Rushing Success Rate: 33.3%, 49.0%
Saints DC Brandon Staley asked the same of Bryce Young back when the division rivals met in Week 10. The outcome was Rico Dowdle, albeit injured coming into the game, hitting season-low efficiency marks since taking on the starting job. And Young failed to throw for a TD. Plus, the Falcons have to face the Seahawks and Buccaneers in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. If you're rostering Robinson and have hopes of making a championship run, don't let the injuries cratering their season also destroy yours.
The 1 good thing about the Seahawks' offense on Sunday was ...Well, nothing.
Sam Darnold (complementary) looked like Sam Darnold (derogatory). Honestly, Seattle's defense was the only reason the team had a shot at escaping with a victory against the Rams. It's why we can still talk about the Seahawks as a playoff team. However, while sifting through the offense for any positive takeaways (outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba), one thing did stick out.
Kenneth Walker III finds the end zone for the Seahawks TD!
- FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 16, 2025
: FOX pic.twitter.com/2uQMszydrc
I thought I was looking at an AI-doctored clip for a second. Kenneth Walker III doesn't get goal-line carries! Or, in this case, a singular tote. But, to be fair, Walker had taken three similar attempts over the two prior games. He just hadn't been able to cash them in like Zach Charbonnet. Plus, the main reason the veteran RB was on the field was that he was in to pass protect on the seven-yard attempt to Cooper Kupp, and Seattle went into hurry-up mode, not allowing the Rams to substitute, giving the edge to Walker. However, even with the added context, we've been seeing more of fourth-year RB since Seattle's bye week.
Short-Yardage Snaps: 41% (post-bye), 29% (pre-bye)
Goal-line Carry Rate: 67%, 25%
Rushing Success Rate: 53.7%, 37.9%
Now, I used these three metrics specifically, as they're what's giving me hope for Walker to make a (much-needed) return to fantasy prominence in the back half of the season. Let's go back to Week 7. Yours truly talked about the necessity of a split within Seattle's backfield. There were indications that the team was trying to manage Walker's foot injury from the offseason. But look at his usage now. Not only are we getting the attempts that are more conducive to fantasy scoring, but his down-to-down efficiency remains. And fortunately (well, unfortunately for Seahawks fans), Sunday's loss should keep them fighting for playoff position.
I'm not asking for Walker to take over the backfield. But if he can maintain the majority of the snaps and touches while the team is in the red zone, while still being a threat for an explosive play, he's back in the RB2 conversation. Plus, his re-entry into the fantasy spotlight would be timely, given Darnold's struggles. His passing efficiency has ticked down each of the last three weeks (0.83 EPA per dropback in Week 9, down to -0.30 on Sunday). So, with matchups against multiple defenses at or above the league average in PPR PPG allowed to RBs over their previous six games ahead (Titans, Falcons, Colts, Panthers), Walker has the potential to carry your roster on a championship run.
The Chargers are cursed (again)I had to travel this week for my day job, so I spent most of my Sunday in an airport or a rental car. Anyway, during my layover, I had a few minutes to catch up on the news from the early games. There weren't any notifications from the Yahoo Fantasy app about TDs thrown by Justin Herbert. I figured they got buried in all incoming messages as soon as I reconnected my phone. Yeah, I was wrong.
DAMN.. what a hit on Herbert pic.twitter.com/nFDGgNSpAM
- Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) November 16, 2025
So, two things on this play. First, and likely the most obvious, the Chargers' offensive line is a liability. During the first half (IE when the game was still competitive), Jacksonville pressured Herbert on 46.2% of his early-down dropbacks. And on half of those snaps, his protection broke down in less than 2.5 seconds. Credit where it's due, as the six-year starter only took one sack (the play featured above had offsetting penalties, so the takedown didn't count against him). However, we've seen Herbert in this type of situation before. Except in this case, both phases of the opposing defense were able to work in concert.
The natural response to the pressure from the Jaguars was a shorter passing aDOT for Herbert. His 0.9 air yards per attempt on first and second down in the first half was a season-low mark. But pause the video at three seconds. I see four Chargers pass-catchers going out on a route. And right across from them are four Jacksonville defenders. Negating the short-area throwing lanes with press coverage and safeties clogging the middle of the field was the right game plan. The Chargers' receivers couldn't gain separation right after the snap, and Herbert didn't have the time to work through his progressions. In either case, the target volume, despite the dip in QB play, doesn't concern me.
Keenan Allen: 24% (Week 11 target share)
Oronde Gadsden: 24%
Ladd McConkey: 19%
Quentin Johnston: 10%
Given Jacksonville's pass rush and coverage, Herbert doled out his attempts the way we'd expect. His receivers operating closer to the line of scrimmage got most of the work. But before we panic, let's look at their remaining schedule: LV, PHI, KC, DAL and HOU. Just one of those teams ranks in the top 12 for pressure rate and passing yards per game allowed (the Texans). Said another way, the Chargers have a week to rest, adjust, and might not see another defense like the Jaguars until Week 17. So while fantasy managers are right to worry, their post-bye matchups should keep the primary starters in our lineups for the playoffs.