Texans vs. Bills odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football
The Buffalo Bills (7-3) travel to the NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans (5-5) to kick off the NFL Week 12 slate on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are fighting for wins to remain in the playoff picture. The Bills currently hold the No. 5 seed and the first wild-card bid in the AFC, while the Texans are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
QB CJ Stroud will miss his third consecutive game with a concussion. The Texans have been fortunate to win the last two with QB Davis Mills at the helm of the offense, but the Bills and Josh Allen are a much tougher test than the two previous games (versus the Jaguars and Titans). The Texans are currently six-point underdogs in their own stadium with a game total at 43.5.
Let's go over betting approaches to the spread, total and some player props going into Thursday night.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.
Buffalo Bills (-6, 43.5) at Houston TexansWhen this line first came out on Sunday Night at the conclusion of Week 11, the price was Bills -3.5. This 2.5-point move towards the Bills is primarily because of the confirmation that Stroud was going to miss this game.
Yahoo's own Ben Fawkes does a preseason survey of oddsmakers to help price each team's starting QB versus their current backup, giving an against the spread difference that the market would price. Fawkes asks oddsmakers and traders at various sportsbooks for their number on all 32 starters, and compiles a composite average of the data received.
The difference between Stroud and Mills ranked 10th in the NFL at a 4.9-point ATS difference. We need to factor in that not only did Stroud struggle a bit this season, Mills has been more than competent in his backup role. Doing some manual adjustments to these rankings, I think it is fair to bring the difference between these two from the 10th rank to the 22nd ranked on/off split, which brings the 4.9 difference to a 3.0.
For reference, some of the tandems jumping ahead of Stroud and Mills include Sam Darnold (and Drew Lock), Daniel Jones (and Anthony Richardson), and Drake Maye (and Josh Dobbs). It is an important factor to know how to properly price the difference between Stroud and Mills, because our next step is going to be looking at market ratings for these teams.
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Market ratings are a strong foundation for me when handicapping sides in the NFL. Market ratings use a data set of previous closing lines, while prioritizing recent matchups. They price each team with a net rating, which can be compared to help project the spread of any matchup. Using the Texans at -1.5, and the Buffalo Bills at +5.5, we can see that the Bills and Texans have a 7-point gap between them. Factor in an additional 1.5 points for the home team, and we get a price of Bills -5.5. However, this data includes some games with Stroud playing, and does not fully translate the impact of Mills, which would still be worth at least 1 full point.
If I am betting the side right now, it remains Bills or nothing for me. Comparing the odds across the betting market, and keeping a close eye on the sportsbooks that are considered the major drivers for setting the consensus price, the Bills side is shaded to be more expensive even at -6.
If another spell of game day money drops on the Bills, and sharp books are already shading their prices towards the Bills, this could be -6.5 at kickoff. Holding a Buffalo -6 (-110) ticket currently available at BetMGM would be a strong closing position.
While the bet here is Bills -6, the strategy of using market ratings along with the ability to price certain players is a universal concept that can apply to any game.
Bet: Bills -6
The total: 43.5While the move from Stroud to Mills was a key cog in handicapping the spread, it is less important to betting the game total. Stroud is a cerebral quarterback who often plays at a slow pace. His adjustments at the line of scrimmage, mixed with his prowess in the short passing game make the Texans offense one where long sustained drives are the way to score, more so than hitting explosive plays. Mills is more likely to get the call from the sidelines, get to the line of scrimmage and hike the ball faster. Pace of play is a major dictator when betting totals. While most QB injury situations will see drastic line movement towards the under, this one does not totally fit that bill.
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The total has moved a point under for other reasons, like the Texans have the NFL's top-ranked pass defense. Houston's D allows the fifth-fewest opposing points per game and has forced the most interceptions in the NFL (17), as well as given up the fourth-fewest total yards per game. Scoring against Will Anderson & Co. is a difficult task. On the other side of the ball, the Bills rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game, and 30th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.
Because it is hard to pass against the Texans, and easy to run against the Bills, both teams are likely to deploy a run-first game script. This is especially true in a short week and low-prep time game.
The move through the 44, from an opener at 44.5 to a consensus 43.5, is very significant because 44 is a key number for NFL betting. However, so is 43. Considering the market direction, and the football angle, I still think this is an under play at 43.5. BetMGM also has the best odds in the market at -105 towards the under. This is a soft under 43.5 and worth playing.
The Bet: Under 43.5 (-105)
Player props to targetWR Khalil Shakir longest reception under 19.5 yards (-115)
Shakir missed multiple practices this week for the Bills while attending to personal issues. He is going to play, but considering the lack of prep time on a short week combined with an amazing Texans pass defense, this is a sure-fire under bet for me. We have seen this line drop to 17.5 at other books, and the under 19.5 remains a strong price to still bet at -115 odds.
RB James Cook under 18.5 rush attempts (-105)
Cook has been dealing with an ankle and foot injury the last two weeks, sustained in the Bills' Week 9 game against the Chiefs. Cook has missed practice time each week despite being cleared to play. On a short week game, I like to fade the usage volume of players dealing with an injury. The Bills have also gotten some solid contributions from backup RB Ty Johnson, and obviously Allen is a constant run threat at QB.
TE Dalton Kincaid is also out, which will impact the run game. Expect two-tight end sets, Johnson to be involved on a short week and Allen to contribute on the ground, in a game where the clock will tick because both teams looking to run. It will be difficult for Cook to reach 19 totes.