NFL 2025 Week 12 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Kenneth Walker capitulation

Week 12 is underway after an ugly Thursday Night Football game. With the fantasy playoffs fast approaching, I have some capitulation to do this week.

Quarterback

Start: Jared Goff, Lions

Coming off a shellacking at the hands of the Eagles, the Lions are a safe bet to get back on track this week. Vegas has Detroit with the highest team total of the weekend at 30.25. The Giants use man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. Goff ranks third in YPA (8.1) against man and fourth in completion rate (60 percent). Of note, Jameson Williams didn't make it into this article as a Start", but he is averaging 2.53 YPRR against man this year. Feel free to fire him up again this week.

Start: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals

The Brissett gravy train will end one day, but Sunday isn't that day. The Jags' defense has collapsed over the past two months. They were the No. 3 defense by EPA per passing play allowed in September. That has fallen to No. 24 in the subsequent two months. Teams have recognized them as a defense to target through the air. The Jags have faced a +4% pass rate over expected this year. That is easily the highest mark in the league. The Cardinals will be more than willing to play that game. Arizona has logged a +7% PROE in five Brissett starts.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 3: Baron Browning #5 of the Arizona Cardinals lines up at the line of scrimmage during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on November 3, 2025 in Arlington,Texas. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

Brissett has thrown for at least 258 yards and two touchdowns in every start this year. He is now a slight underdog to a pass-funnel defense. This, again, is the perfect setup for our Joe Flacco successor.

Sit: Baker Mayfield, Bucs

Vegas is wary of the Bucs this week. Their 21.5-point implied team total is the same as the Steelers. We don't know who Pittsburgh's quarterback is at the time of this article's posting. The road-tripping Panthers are only projected to score .25 fewer points. His opponent, the Rams, ranks second in EPA per dropback allowed this year. LA is giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers.

Sit: Jordan Love, Packers

Volume isn't going to be on Love's side this week. The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at home over the Vikings. Despite the hefty spread, their 23.75 team total sits behind 10 teams, including the Bears and Jags. Green Bay has a -3% PROE this year. The Vikings have faced a neutral PROE in 2025, but that has shifted since J.J. McCarthy returned to the lineup. Over the past three weeks, teams have hit the Vikings with a -4% PROE. Love has attempted more than 40 passes once this year and has two top-five weekly fantasy finishes. Brissett has as many top-five outings.

Running Back

Start: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks

As a long-time Walker hater, Week 11 has me reconsidering things. The Seahawks have quietly been shifting their goal line duties over the past three weeks. From Week 4 to Week 7, Zach Charbonnet out-carried Walker 7-1 inside the five. That split has reversed to 4-1 in Walker's favor since Seattle's Week 8 bye. Walker's route rate is also up to 41 percent since the bye. It sat at 32 percent ahead of the break.

Macdonald: Walker 'earning more opportunities' https://t.co/nQYYF4c5Pq

- Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 18, 2025

Head coach Mike Macdonald then said the quiet part out loud earlier this week. Walker is barreling toward his best role of the year just as he and the Seahawks square off with the lowly Titans. This is a smash spot for KW.

Start: David Montgomery, Lions

Montgomery has been a frustrating fantasy bet as of late, scoring just one touchdown in his past five appearances. The biggest difference during that stretch has been a lack of positive game script. The Lions are 2-3 during their last five games.

Montgomery has averaged 8.5 PPR points in losses compared to 13 in wins this year. He and the Lions are favored by 10.5 points at home versus the Giants. No team has allowed a higher EPA per rush than New York.

Sit: Breece Hall, Jets

The Jets pulled the plug on Justin Fields, replacing him with Tyrod Taylor for Week 12 versus the Ravens. While Taylor might be a better real-life quarterback for the Jets, he could do more harm than good for Hall. Taylor made one start earlier this year. The Jets, who have the lowest PROE in the league, went pass-first under Taylor, logging a +3% PROE in Week 3. New York's backs combined for 15 rush attempts. Taylor has also thrown to his running backs less often and with less efficiency than Fields.

	RB Target Share	RB YPT	RB TDs
With Taylor	18.8%	4.6	0
With Fields	21.6%	6.8	1

There is the potential for Hall's rushing and receiving numbers to plummet this week in a game where his team is projected to lose by nearly two scores.

Sit: Chase Brown, Bengals

No team has been more stingy to running backs than the Patriots this year. They are giving up 11 points per week to opposing backs, easily the lowest mark in the league. New England has not allowed a running back to hit 60 yards on the ground in 2025. Even with Joe Burrow potentially returning, the Bengals are still 5.5-point dogs this week. Brown is still a fine RB2 based on his pass-catching role, but his brief stint as a low-end RB1 is being put on pause this week.

Wide Receiver

Start: Tee Higgins, Bengals

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but you're starting Higgins this week. You might be able to count on one hand the number of receivers worth playing over him. Higgins hasn't played in a game without Ja'Marr Chase in a few years. That last happened in 2023 and 2022. When it did happen, the results were glorious.

He averaged over 20 points per game in five contests without Chase in those years. His target share in 2025 sits at 19 percent, a five-point drop from his 2024 mark. His aDOT has also jumped to 14.1, well ahead of where it was last year. The Bengals have been using Higgins primarily as a field-stretcher this year, undercutting his fantasy value. He will get the alpha treatment this week, putting him in line for high-end WR1 numbers.

Start: Luther Burden, Bears

Higgins was an obvious start, so we're getting a deeper cut here. Ben Johnson put Burden into the starting lineup in Week 11 and isn't looking back.

Over the last two weeks, Luther Burden III's snaps counts have, on average, almost doubled from his first seven games. #Bears head coach Ben Johnson... pic.twitter.com/yPgdSNSlMR

- Barroom Net | Aldo Gandia (@BarroomNetwork) November 19, 2025

Burden is coming off a season-high in route rate (61 percent) and target share (18 percent). He and the Bears now face a Pittsburgh team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Sit: Jordan Addison, Vikings

No receiver has made more of their living on intermediate and deep targets than Addison. He has accumulated over 80 percent of his yards on throws 10+ yards downfield. All three of his scores have been on intermediate shots. J.J. McCarthy ranks 32nd out of 35 quarterbacks in accurate throw row on attempts 10+ yards downfield. He sits at 29th in YPA and has the third-most interceptions on these throws despite ranking 30th in attempts.

Sit: Ricky Pearsall, 49ers

Pearsall has appeared in five games this year, four of which Jauan Jennings was active for. In those four games, Pearsall has 14.8 percent target share and has been targeted on 15.2 percent of his routes. He is averaging 8.4 PPR points per game with Jennings available. Pearsall ran all of the routes in his return to action last week and was targeted twice. He needs to prove he can earn opportunities before fantasy managers put him back in their lineups.

Tight End

Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints

This isn't the most fun Start" of the week, but Johnson is a better fantasy option than plenty of fantasy managers will be rolling out on Sunday. He remains available in a third of Yahoo leagues and is the TE7 on the year. His 19 percent target share is tied for eighth among tight ends. His 16 percent air yards share also cracks the top 10.

Start: Dallas Goedert, Eagles

When the Eagles have faced man coverage this year, A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley are their guys. Against zone, it's all DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

	YPRR vs. Zone	TPRR vs. Zone	YPRR vs. Man	TPRR vs. Man
DeVonta Smith	2.14	19.8%	1.6	24.7%
Dallas Goedert	1.6	18.6%	0.98	19.5%
A.J. Brown	1.08	18.3%	3.6	34.8%
Saquon Barkley	0.82	19.5%	2.39	15.9%

The target-earning versus zone coverage is relatively flat, but Smith and Goedert run laps around their teammates in YPRR. Dallas uses zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league and they are not a good defense in general, giving up the fifth-worst EPA per play to opposing passers.

Sit: David Njoku, Browns

It appears to be thoroughly over for Njoku. He has a seven percent target share and a two percent air yards share since the team's Week 9 bye. Kevin Stefanski has scaled him back to a 52 percent route rate during that stretch. The last time he ran more than 56 percent of the routes was in Week 5. He's just a backup tight end now.

Sit: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings

McCarthy's accuracy issues are also a problem for Hockenson, but they aren't even the biggest issue. Since Jordan Addison returned in Week 4, Hockenson has seen a measly 14 percent of the team's targets. He has been targeted on 13 percent of his routes during that stretch and is averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game with Addison in the lineup. Those aren't even TE2 numbers.