Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 13

Hello Yahoo! I'm Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator ofTHE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you'll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I'll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I'll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

Once again, last week's list wound up being pretty spot on. Derrick Henry had his third-best game of the year, and Tyler Warren had his fourth-worst. Emanuel Wilson exploded and Darnell Mooney had a mini-breakout. Let's see who we should expect to have up or down weeks this time. On to Week 13...

De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 19.1 carries, 6.1 receptions, 141 yards, 0.88 TD

Week 13 vs. ROS: 27.1 PPR points vs. 24.6 PPR points per game

If THE BLITZ were sentient, it would have been outraged that Achane wasn't a top-five draft pick this year, much less a second- or third-rounder. He's been an elite fantasy asset, and this week projects as a spike week on top of his usual dominance. It's rare that the Dolphins project as a favorite, but betting markets are giving them a 5.5-point advantage over New Orleans this week. That should mean a game script very favorable for rushing in an extreme pace-up spot against a very fast-paced Saints offense.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 17.3 carries, 2.6 receptions, 95 yards, 0.61 TD

Week 13 vs. ROS: RB15 vs. RB26

Walker notched a season-high 63% snap rate in Week 12, and that was very much by design for Seattle. The coachspeak on Walker has been very favorable of late, with head coach Mike Macdonald saying that Walker deserved more opportunities prior to last game, and when asked about his plans for this week, he said, I think we'll stick to a similar plan." (h/t Coachspeak Index Discord). That bodes well for Walker in an excellent setup this week, with Seattle boasting a top-five implied team total and an 11.5-point spread vs. the Vikings, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Walker to grind the game out in the second half.

Devin Neal, RB, Saints

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 14.2 carries, 3.2 receptions, 83 yards, 0.35 TD

Week 13 vs. YTD: RB23 vs. RB73

Alvin Kamara left Week 12 early with a knee injury, opening the door for Devin Neal to pick up seven rush attempts and five receptions. Neal should be in for a good workload in Week 13 given that no other running back on the Saints roster or practice squad has touched the ball this season. We may see Audric Estime work in, but this backfield should belong to Neal, who is capable of contributing both on the ground and through the air. His touchdown equity will be mitigated by the presence of Taysom Hill, but as essentially Kamara Lite, he profiles as a very viable fantasy contributor.

Brock Purdy (and SF pass-catchers), QB, 49ers

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 32.2 pass attempts, 212 passing yards, 1.30 passing TD

Week 13 vs. ROS: QB26 vs. QB18

Purdy is coming off a great game in his return from injury, and if you held him this long you should be very happy. This week, however, you may want to look for an alternative starter, because this is a tough spot for the 49ers. They face a stout Cleveland pass defense that is especially good at locking down tight ends and running backs like George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. And with Shedeur Sanders starting at QB for Cleveland, the 49ers find themselves 5-point favorites, which could mean more running than usual. Then there's the weather component, with 20-mph winds projected as well as the chance of rain. Put it all together, and this is a spot you may want to sit Purdy in favor of a streaming replacement.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 10.6 targets, 6.0 receptions, 75 yards, 0.35 TD

Week 13 vs. ROS: 16.5 PPR points vs. 19.2 PPR points per game

Jefferson is one of my favorite buy-lows right now in leagues that haven't had their trade deadline pass yet, but this week does figure to be a tougher one than usual for him. As much as J.J. McCarthy has struggled, undrafted rookie Max Brosmer can't possibly be an upgrade (right?!). The Vikings will also be going outdoors, away from their dome, to face an above-average defense. They also have one of the lowest implied team totals we've seen all year: 14.75. I do expect Jefferson to be a top-10 WR over the rest of the season when McCarthy returns next week, so if he struggles this week, don't let it dissuade you from making a play for him.

Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs

THE BLITZ Week 13 Projection: 11.6 carries, 1.8 receptions, 67 yards, 0.54 TD

Week 13 vs. ROS: RB29 vs. RB11

Irving hasn't played since Week 4 but is expected to suit up this week. I'd think twice before jamming him back into your lineup, though. There have been several quotes out of Tampa Bay to make us question just how much he's going to play this week. From coach Todd Bowles (via Coachspeak Index Discord):

"Bucky Irving will probably be on a pitch count in this week's game, similar to Chris Godwin last week. We'll kinda see how he goes, and which running back does what, and then playing time will be dependent on that."

And then offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard said this:

I think it's a lot like what we did with Chris Godwin, where you can't expect a guy who hasn't played in numerous weeks, to go out there and get a normal lions' share of the carries. Bring them along, allow them to get their confidence back up, allow them to build their play strength back up. And then don't overload them with scheme. To think that they're gonna go play 60 snaps immediately would be a disservice to those guys."

Once he gets back up to speed, Irving is one of my favorite RBs in fantasy, but I wouldn't expect him to play at that level for at least a couple weeks.