Fantasy Football: Bears backfield doing damage before contact and 9 other stats that may go overlooked from Week 13
Each Monday, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 13 had plenty of notable stats. What keys to fantasy success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
19
Touches on 31 snaps for Bucky Irving. It was his first game back from injury and Irving immediately regained his workhorse role in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers RB is now averaging 21.8 touches per game this season, the second-highest to Christian McCaffrey. With Sean Tucker on the rise and Rachaad White being a good veteran contributor, the fact that Irving proved to still be a level above makes him a fantasy RB1 going forward. Tucker ended his day with two touches and White with five.
For reference, after his breakout in Week 5 of 2024, Irving averaged 14.5 half-PPR PPG on 16.6 touches per game. His five extra touches per game have increased his fantasy PPG by 1.0, but that is all (still) without a single goal-line carry (not counting his reversed one-yard TD from Sunday). The Buccaneers have oddly only had one carry inside the five-yard line in the five games with Irving available this season (10 in the other seven games). With Irving having nine goal-line attempts over the last 11 games in 2024, we would expect to see some extra rushing touchdowns down the stretch once Tampa Bay gets deep into the red zone.
Bucky Irving scores a TD.
- SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 30, 2025
Brought back on holding call.
Rachaad White brings it back to the 1.
Bucky comes back in.
Yup you guessed it.
WIRFS TD
50%
Of the RB touches for Rico Dowdle, the lowest since becoming the starter in Week 9. Two weeks ago, Dowdle out-snapped Chuba Hubbard 66 to 15. This week it was 38 to 27... in Hubbard's favor. A dagger to the heart for Dowdle managers. Not only did Hubbard take half of the rushing volume, but he was the primary receiving back, a major change when it comes to fantasy roles.
Since becoming the starter, Dowdle had been running over two-thirds of the Carolina RB routes. That dropped to six out of the 22 routes by Panthers RBs on Sunday. His four targets last week helped him not be a complete bust in Week 13. Now, he barely ran four routes. This doesn't mean Dowdle completely goes away, but his fantasy value significantly changes when going to a split backfield. He had 23.2 fantasy PPG in five games with 70% or more of the RB touches this season. In all other games, Dowdle has yet to score better than 10.3 fantasy points.
Panthers RBs today:
- Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) November 30, 2025
Rico Dowdle: 18/58/0 rushing + 2/21/0 receiving = 8.9 fantasy points
Chuba Hubbard: 17/83/0 rushing + 2/41/1 receiving = 19.4 fantasy points pic.twitter.com/oUEjVbwzz4
47.4%
Brock Bowers' red-zone target share since returning from injury (last five games). Is the Raiders offense good? No. But do they have hope going forward? Also probably not. However, they do have a clear plan of attack in the red zone: find Bowers and get him the ball. In their first game without Chip Kelly, Bowers had virtually three red-zone touchdowns, with one being called back before ultimately putting it in the end zone again on the same drive. Bowers is used all over the field. Whether it's split outside alone or on the line as a true TE, he's the main target in the most important area of the field.
His 24.7% target share since returning is the best among tight ends, even above Trey McBride. It has led Bowers to being the TE2 in fantasy with five touchdowns. It may not be pretty in Vegas, but Bowers has no help on a team constantly finding themselves in pass-heavy game scripts; a good combo for a fantasy asset.
2.15
Yards before contact per attempt this season by the Chicago Bears, the only team above 2.0. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai looked eerily similar to a certain Detroit duo in Week 13 as the Ben Johnson run game continues to improve. Since their Week 5 bye, the Bears' yards before contact have seen a substantial 66% increase.
Last season, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery ranked as the RB2 and RB13 in PPG. I don't believe the Bears will churn out that production, but they can be a lesser version in this offense as they get close to matching the rushing production. Monangai has over 50% of the RB carries in each of the last two games. With nearly everything identical, including red-zone usage, the Chicago duo should remain valuable. The main issue has come in the receiving game, especially as of late, with Chicago ranking 26th in RB target share (Detroit is fourth). I wouldn't expect too much difference with Caleb Williams' scrambling ability and tendencies that limit the backs' receiving upside. Since Swift returned a month ago, the two Bears RBs have combined for just 2.5 receiving PPG. In positive rushing matchups, the Chicago running backs can both be used for their upside on the ground.
As a team, the Bears rushed for 100 yards before contact and 185 after contact against the Eagles.
- Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 28, 2025
They have reached 100+ yards before contact and 150+ after contact twice this season, and no other team in the NFL has done so even once.
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0/3
Rome Odunze games with 70%+ route share over the last three weeks. He had 70%+ in every game before that. It hasn't been pretty for Odunze managers lately. Since Week 4, Odunze ranks as the WR49. The inconsistency will sadly continue, in my opinion. The catch rate is under 50% (the lowest on the team), with Caleb Williams' catchable target rate to his downfield WR being a low 67%. An issue for a WR already struggling with drops.
The main reason would still be he just needs to be on the field for passing plays. Over the first 10 weeks, he was 84% of the time. The route share over the last three has dropped to under 67%. With rookies Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland getting more and more involved, the already crowded receiving corps grows more crowded. Both rookies and Odunze had six targets in Week 13, tied for the team high. The ceiling is still there, but being TD dependent with inconsistent volume should keep him just that, inconsistent.
Most Fantasy Points Lost Due to Drops@FantasyPtsData
- Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 24, 2025
1. Rome Odunze - at least 33.2 fantasy points
2. Chris Olave - at least 27.8
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown - at least 26.5 pic.twitter.com/S7JcFtYshU
11.5%
The difference in success rate percentages between the Kansas City running backs this season, in favor of Kareem Hunt. With Isiah Pacheco back in the mix, Hunt stayed as the workhorse back on Thanksgiving, receiving 14 of the 17 RB carries. Although Pacheco will likely get more as he ramps back up from injury, there's a good shot Hunt's high volume stays up. The Chiefs' run game is unique, ranking inside the top five in success rate, but near the bottom in explosive runs. It's consistent and anything but flashy. When the Chiefs need three yards on 3rd and 3, Hunt has been the far more productive RB of the two.
Hunt's 48.5% success rate is the fourth best in the NFL as Pacheco ranks 31st in the same offense. His goal-line role is already solidified, getting 15 touches to Pacheco's zero, resulting in the third-most fantasy points inside the five-yard line. It was a rough fantasy day against an improving Dallas run defense; however, I believe Hunt will maintain a high-volume role compared to earlier in the season.
82%
Of routes run by Christian Watson this month. In this offense, Watson shines when he is given a high volume of routes, shown best by his 12th-ranked yards per route run among WRs since 2024. Jordan Love is fifth in completions thrown 20+ yards downfield this season despite ranking 22nd in passing attempts per game. That's Watson's bread and butter. His 186 air yards were the most on the week as he's the clear go-to weapon deep down the field in Green Bay.
With the loss of Tucker Kraft, the Packers need a WR to step up. Over the last month without Kraft, Watson has been that player over Romeo Doubs and others. Watson led in every notable WR stat, including doubling up the next closest player in air yards. It may not be as high a floor as other fantasy receivers, but Watson has true WR2 potential the rest of the way. And by the way, zero drops this season.
#Packers WR Christian Watson since returning (six games, Weeks 8-13):
- Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 29, 2025
2.24 yards per route run
10 contested catches (second among WRs)
10 third down conversions
17.3 yards per catch
6 catches of 20+, 2 of 50+
86.4 receiving grade at PFF pic.twitter.com/RE4yeMUHaf
37%
Target share for Jameson Williams on Thanksgiving, a career high. This was largely thanks to Amon-Ra St. Brown being ruled out in the first quarter, adding to the already injured TE Sam LaPorta. Before Thursday, Williams hadn't had a game over seven targets since Week 4, even with his great stretch over the past month. With the offensive efficiency and Williams' playmaking ability being some of the best in the NFL, a target bump is of extreme value for the Lions outside WR. His 11.2 yards per target this season is third-best among wideouts. With St. Brown likely out in Week 14, Williams becomes a virtual must-start versus the Cowboys secondary.
32
Passing attempts for Joe Burrow in his first half of football back from injury. After nine games away, Zac Taylor had no plans of easing his QB back into the game. Joe Flacco had over 40 passing attempts per game; it's looking like Burrow may have the best passing volume in the NFL the rest of the way after throwing 46 times versus Baltimore on Thursday night.
Burrow was clearly rusty early, without Tee Higgins, and on the road versus a much improved defense. He still scored 19.24 fantasy points. A big part of Burrow's success last season came in red-zone passing. A crazy stat, the Bengals QB had 55 passes thrown to the end zone, the next-closest was 37. He dropped back on 14 of the 21 red-zone plays in Week 13 to show that it isn't going away anytime soon. Not to mention the offensive line has quietly improved.
The Bengals entire OL allowed only 2 pressures on 250 total pass blocking opportunities last night.
- Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) November 28, 2025
That is a combined pressure rate of 0.8% for Amarius Mims, Dylan Fairchild, Dalton Risner, Orlando Brown Jr., and Ted Karras.
You can't be any better than that as an OL group. https://t.co/cbseS25mQO
5
More routes run for Broncos WR Pat Bryant compared to Troy Franklin. After usually running 2x as many routes as Bryant, Franklin was not only third among WR in routes, but also in targets. Bryant took over as the primary slot WR on Sunday Night Football vs. the Commanders. Franklin has run 50/50 this season in the slot and outside, but only ran seven routes out of the slot on Sunday compared to the rookie's 20. After Franklin's team-high seventh drop of the season - the lack of a deep ball connection and a poor yards per target - it becomes very difficult to trust him. Bryant isn't necessarily a great waiver wire pickup, but more so another thorn to deal with as Bo Nix continues to spread the ball around to a wide array of players.