NFL Week 14 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including chaos in futures markets after big upsets
This is the time of the NFL season in which the elite teams usually start to separate. The problem with this season might be that there aren't any elite teams.
The story of Week 13 was how some teams that seemed like Super Bowl contenders slipped further out of the circle of trust.
Many of the NFL's brand-name teams took huge upset losses in Week 13, leaving us to figure out who might be a decent Super Bowl pick with just five weeks left. The uncertainty is reflected throughout the futures odds at BetMGM as well.
Here are the top betting storylines going into Week 14 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:
Who's the Super Bowl favorite?If you have a good idea who is winning the Super Bowl, you can still get pretty good odds on practically every team.
The Rams were considered the safe bet, then they lost in Week 13 to the Carolina Panthers. Oddsmakers weren't swayed too much, as the Rams remained the Super Bowl favorite and by a healthy margin. The Rams are +450 (bet $100 to win $450) to win it all. Every other team has odds of +850 or longer. The Seahawks are second in the odds at +850.
It's rare to be this late in a season and not see a team with odds shorter than +450 (implied odds to win of about 18%) and no other team at shorter than +850. It's wide open and if you can decipher which team to trust, you'll have a nice ticket in your pocket on them.
If you want a snapshot of this season, the AFC future odds are a good place to look.
The favorites to win the AFC (Patriots) are +425 and the teams tied for fifth and sixth (Ravens and Chiefs) are only +800. That's not a big gap from first to sixth.
Patriots +425
Bills +450
Broncos +450
Colts +700
Ravens +800
Chiefs +800
The Ravens and Chiefs aren't even above .500 after taking losses on Thanksgiving. And yet they're not that far behind the NFL's only 11-2 team, the Patriots, in the AFC odds. It's about to get weird this postseason.
AFC South tightens upThe Colts have lost three of four and have gone from minus odds to win the division to plus odds.
After Indianapolis lost last week to Houston, it's a three-team race in the division. The 8-4 Colts are +140 to win it, the 8-4 Jaguars are +150 and the surging Texans aren't that far back at +300. The division looked like it was over when the Colts were 7-1. But we're finding out that every team that looks good for a stretch this season is determined to fall back to the pack.
Our weekly Chiefs check-inThe Chiefs are tied for the fifth-best odds to win the AFC, at +800. However, they're not even favored to make the playoffs anymore.
Finally, after the Chiefs lost on Thanksgiving to the Cowboys, oddsmakers needed to relent and make the Chiefs +110 to make the playoffs. Kansas City is -130 to miss the playoffs. It's the first time all season Kansas City hasn't been priced among the favorites in the entire NFL.
Last week, the Chiefs were the AFC favorites at +475. Oddsmakers have had them near the top of the Super Bowl odds all season despite a record that has hovered around .500. This week the Chiefs took a big drop to +1700, tied with the Ravens (another faller after a Thanksgiving loss) for the 10th best odds. The Chiefs' odds not matching their record has been a strange sidenote to a strange season, but with five games left reality is kicking in: This might not be the Chiefs' year.
MVP favorite switches tooThe chaos wasn't exclusive to the team level of the odds. The Rams' upset loss cost Matthew Stafford pole position in the MVP race.
Drake Maye, whose New England Patriots were one of the few top teams that won and covered easily in Week 13, is the MVP favorite. He has -120 odds. Stafford was first last week, and he's not too far behind Maye at +115. Stafford threw two interceptions, including a pick-6, and lost a key fumble late in the Rams' loss to the Panthers. Stafford hadn't thrown an interception since Week 3, but recency bias is big in awards voting and Maye has also been a strong candidate all season.
Jordan Love and Dak Prescott are next in the odds, both at +1500, making this look like a two-man race for MVP down the stretch.
Cowboys at Lions is a big gameOne of the surprising lines before Week 14, based on preseason expectation, is seeing the Lions as +115 to make the playoffs. One of the preseason Super Bowl favorites is on the ropes.
The Cowboys are coming on strong, though they have a long way to go to make the playoffs. They're +270 to make the playoffs in a crowded NFC. But Thursday night's game will change the outlook for both teams. The Cowboys play at the Lions, and Dallas is a 3-point underdog. The Lions are again dealing with key injuries. After a wild Week 13 that saw multiple season-shifting upsets, Week 14 starts off with a critical game in the playoff picture.