Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Week 14 Rankings and Streamers
We're coming off of our third straight week correctly predicting six of the top 10 defenses, so perhaps we're starting to hit a groove here.
Now, some of the calls were pretty much in line with consensus, like the Seahawks, Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins against the Saints. We also moved the 49ers up into the top ten when the weather forecast for the game took a turn for the worse on Friday. However, I got a lot of grief on Reddit for continuing to rank the Bucs inside the top 10 despite their poor recent performance, so it was nice to see them put up nine points and sneak into the top 10.
I was disappointed that both the Rams and Texans failed to deliver in good matchups despite their recent run of success, and was pretty shocked that the Panthers, Bengals, and Bills all ended up as top three defenses. I'm not sure anybody could have seen that coming, and only two of them were even in good matchups, which is just another reminder that there will always be random variance every week in DST scoring, and you can't let that throw you off your process. We sure won't.
As a final reminder, what you'll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my elite" plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I'll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)WEEK 13: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 67-63
Getting Defensive: Week 12 fantasy plays led by Seahawks, Lions; top streaming defensesThe Seahawks and Lions lead the clear D/ST starts, but the Packers and Falcons headline the streamers to watch. Here's how to set your fantasy defense in Week 12. BOD Formula and PhilosophyIf you've read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, Who is playing a bad offense?" While opponents factor into my rankings, I don't want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
I then add that total to the team's fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on "gut feel" or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEOOVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
DST WEEK 13 RANKINGS | |||
| Rank | Tier One DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | at ARI | 3 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | at ATL | 1 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | at LV | 6 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | vs TEN | 4 |
Yes, we're going back to the well with the Rams here, just like we went back to the well with the Seahawks after they disappointed against the Titans. We don't let one bad week turn us away from teams that have proven to be solid DST scorers. Over the last two months, the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in opponents' scoring rate, 2nd in EPA per play allowed, 7th in conversion rate allowed, and 9th in pressure rate. That has helped them put up 10.3 fantasy points per game, which is third-best in the league. I know last week was tough, but I'm not going to let that dissuade me from playing the Rams against a Cardinals offense that allowed the Bucs to put up nine fantasy points last week and has allowed an average of 10.3 fantasy points per game over the last month. Oh, and Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a heel injury last week that may also keep him out for this game.
The Seahawks have been the best defense in fantasy of late, ranking 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 1st in opponents' scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in turnover rate while averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game. They get a good matchup against a Falcons team that just lost outright to the Jets. There is a chance that Drake London returns this weekend, but I'm not sure why Atlanta would bring him back in a lost season like this. On the flip side, it seems like Julian Love is going to be back this week for the Seahawks, which would be a nice boost.
The Broncos haven't been as elite over the last two months, ranking 1st in the league in conversion rate allowed, 4th in opponents' scoring rate, and 5th in EPA per play allowed. However, they've put up a solid 7.9 fantasy points per game despite playing without star cornerback Patrick Surtain II and starting linebacker Alex Singleton.Both of them were back last week, which is a big boost to this Denver defense going forward. Meanwhile, Ashton Jeanty clearly is not 100% with his ankle injury, and Geno Smith has taken 25 sacks over his last four games. Denver scored 14 fantasy points against the Raiders just three weeks ago, and I could see the same thing happening here.
Over the last two months, the Browns rank 3rd in the league in EPA per play allowed, 5th in conversion rate allowed, 5th in pressure rate, and 12th in opponents' scoring rate, while scoring 10.4 fantasy points per game, which trails only the Seahawks. I know they let us down against the 49ers, but the weather really impacted that matchup in a way where the 49ers were simply able to ride Christian McCaffrey to a win. Now, the Browns offense is always a risk to put their defense in poor spots, but this Titans offense is not good and has allowed 10 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so it's hard to sit the Browns here, even with rotational defensive tackle Maliek Collins suffering a season-ending quad injury.
| Rank | Tier Two DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Bucs | vs NO | 7 |
| 6 | Houston Texans | at KC | 2 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | vs PIT | 8 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | at LAC | 9 |
If we're going by top 10 rankings, then the Bucs only rank 3rd in the NFL turnover rate over the last two months. However, they are on the fringe in a few categories, ranking 13th in EPA per play allowed, 13th in pressure rate, 13th in conversion rate allowed, and 15th in opponent's scoring rate. They also rank 6th with 8.0 fantasy points per game over that span, so I'm thinking of the Bucs as a borderline top-10 defense that gets a matchup against a Saints offense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. There's also a good chance Alvin Kamara misses yet another game, so I love this spot for the Bucs here.
Yes, I'm going to keep the Texans in the top 10 despite playing the Chiefs in Arrowhead because I have that kind of faith in this defense in a game that they know they really need to win in order to solidify a playoff spot. Over the last two months, the Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate, 3rd in opponents' scoring rate, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, and 4th in turnover rate while averaging 10.1 fantasy points per game. I know the Chiefs are not an offense we usually attack, but left tackle Josh Simmonsis out indefinitely with a fractured wrist, right tackle Jawaan Taylor left Thursday's game with an elbow injury, and right guard Trey Smithis also battling an injury. This Texans pass rush is not the team you want to face with a decimated offensive line, but that might be exactly the situation the Chiefs find themselves in.
We faded the Ravens defense last week, but that was mainly about a matchup with a mostly healthy Bengals offense. On the whole, the Ravens defense has been trending up, ranking 4th in the league in conversion rate allowed, 5th in turnover rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in opponents' scoring rate, which has led to 7.7 fantasy points per game. Starting cornerback Nate Wiggins seems to have avoided a serious injury and could play this week against a Steelers offense that has allowed 9.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defense over the last month. Aaron Rodgers is trying to play through a fractured wrist, DK Metcalf hasn't posted 60 yards receiving since Week 6, and starting left tackle Broderick Jones is out for the season. With the division lead on the line, this feels like a good spot for the Ravens.
The Eagles have been a mildly resurgent defense of late, ranking 6th in pressure rate, 10th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in opponents' scoring rate, which has led to 6.7 fantasy points per game. They now face a Chargers offense that has such a banged-up offensive line that they've allowed 8.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Even though they may get Omarion Hamptonback this week, they could also be without quarterback Justin Herbert, who underwent surgery on his left wrist on Sunday. Starting a backup quarterback behind that offensive line against a defense with a top-10 pressure rate is a recipe for disaster, and even if Herbert plays, I'd likely keep the Eagles as a fringe top-10 option.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
| Rank | Tier Three DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | at NYJ | 14 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | at BAL | 18 |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | vs IND | 13 |
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons | vs SEA | 17 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | vs HOU | 22 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | vs PHI | 11 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | at JAX | 19 |
The Dolphins delivered for us as a top 10 defense last week and could again in Week 14. Over the last two months, Miami ranks 7th in opponents' scoring rate and 11th in conversion rate allowed while averaging 6.1 fantasy points per game. That's not setting the world on fire, but it's been solid and consistent. Now they get a Jets offense that has allowed opposing defenses to score 6.5 fantasy points per game over the last month. That's not as good a matchup as the Saints were, but it's good enough that I think the Dolphins could sneak into the top 10.
The Steelers rank 9th in turnover rate over the last two months, and are facing a Ravens offense that looks like a shell of itself of late. Lamar Jackson is clearly still hurt and hasn't scored a touchdown of any kind since Week 10 against the Vikings. It also seems like the Steelers avoided a major injury for Patrick Queen and could get defensive tackle Derrick Harmon back this week as well. I don't love that they have to go into Baltimore with a bad offense to support them, but I could see this being an old-fashioned rock fight where both teams put up solid defensive numbers.
The Jaguars and Colts are both playable this week in deeper formats. The Jaguars have been better and are my preferred play. Over the last two months, they rank 8th in pressure rate, 8th in opponents' scoring rate, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in conversion rate allowed while scoring 6.4 fantasy points per game. The Colts had been trending down as an offense, and Daniel Jones is clearly playing worse while dealing with a fractured fibula, but they are also only allowing 5.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so it's not a great spot.
On the other side, the Jaguars have allowed 8.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defense over the last month, so this is a decent spot for the Colts. It's unlikely that Sauce Gardnerplays this week, which is bad news for this defense. The Jaguars are dealing with injuries to both starting left tackle Walker Little and right guard Patrick Mekari, so that's a situation to monitor, but I expect them both to play.
The Falcons defense is just impossible to predict. Every time we think they're in a good spot, they let us down, but then they will spike a huge week out of nowhere. Over the last two months, they average a nice 6.9 fantasy points per game, and the Seahawks have allowed 7.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. Sam Darnold has thrown six interceptions in his last four games and also lost a fumble last week. In fact, his only decent game since Week 9 was against the Titans in Week 12, so this Seahawks offense has some weaknesses. I don't love this spot, but I can see it working out
The Chiefs are not a defense we really trust, putting up just 4.4 fantasy points per game over the last two months; however, they are playing at home against the Texans with their playoff lives on the line. Safety Bryan Cook is questionable with an ankle injury, which would be a hit to his defense, but the reason to play them is that the Texans have allowed 7.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and rank 13th in sack rate and 20th in scoring rate on the season. Maybe the Chiefs can put to 7-9 fantasy points in this one to help save their season.
Over the last two months, the Chargers rank 6th in the league in opponents' scoring rate, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in pressure rate; however, they have put up just 6.0 fantasy points per game. They also now find themselves in a below-average matchup against the Eagles, and with Justin Herbert potentially out following wrist surgery, the Chargers' offense could put the defense in bad spots all game. I'd probably rather avoid this.
| Rank | Tier Four DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 16 | Buffalo Bills | vs CIN | 12 |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | at GB | 10 |
| 18 | Green Bay Packers | vs CHI | 15 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | vs DEN | 16 |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | at TB | 20 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | at CLE | 27 |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | at MIN | 32 |
Over the last two months, the Bills rank 9th in opponents' scoring rate, 11th in turnover rate, 11th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in conversion rate allowed. Their defense has also really turned the corner since their Week 7 bye. As Chris Trapasso pointed out on Twitter, the Bills were allowing 2.20 points per drive before the bye, but are now allowing just 1.84 points per drive, which is better than their 2.15 points per drive mark from last year. We should note that they've played the Panthers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bucs, Texans, and Steelers since the bye, so it hasn't been the best collection of offense, and now they get a healthy Bengals offense that welcomed back Joe Burrow last week and should get Tee Higgins back this week.
The Bears rank 1st in turnover rate on the season, which keeps them on the fantasy bubble because they have averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game over the last two months. The Packers are also a bad matchup, so I'd rather not play either of these defenses.
I know people want to play the Commanders this week because the Vikings offense has been so bad, but I just can't recommend doing it. Over the last two months, the Commanders are my lowest-ranked defense in the NFL. They rank 26th in turnover rate, 29th in pressure rate, dead last in conversion rate allowed, dead last in EPA per play allowed, and dead last in opponents' scoring rate. If anything, this feels more like a get-right spot for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense.
We've ridden the Saints in recent weeks, and they have produced for us, but this is where the ride ends for me. The Bucs got Bucky Irving back, and Chris Godwin is beginning to look a little bit more like himself, so I can't trust the Saints on the road against this offense.
Much like with the Commanders, I can't play the Titans this week. I know the Browns are bad, but their running game is good, and this Titans defense just hasn't been delivered in fantasy. In fact, now as I type this out, I'm going to rank the Titans above the Commanders because I think the Browns are a worse offense than the Vikings, and the Titans have been a better defense than the Commanders.
| Rank | Tier Five DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 23 | New York Jets | vs MIA | 28 |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | at DET | 23 |
| 25 | Minnesota Vikings | vs WAS | 25 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | at BUF | 29 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | vs DAL | 24 |
| 28 | Arizona Cardinals | vs LAR | 21 |
| 29 | New England Patriots | BYE | 5 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | BYE | 26 |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | BYE | 27 |
| 32 | New York Giants | BYE | 31 |
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don't think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.