Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots in Week 14, plus deep sleepers to consider
Using matchup data, I've got 12 sleepers who could help your fantasy teams get these much-needed wins and help propel you toward the fantasy football playoffs. Good luck and let's go ...
QuarterbackTyler Shough vs. TBThe Bucs have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the quarterback position, including the third-most yards and are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed.
Shough has very quietly been legit good in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he's completing 69.4% of his passes, averaging a rock-solid 254.7 yards per game. He's tossed two touchdowns in two of those three games.
The Bucs defense has given up 20+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in three consecutive games (Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen).
The Bucs have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing running backs and they've been especially bad against backs out of the backfield. The 87.7% completion rate allowed to backs is the second worst, while the 10.5 yards/target allowed is BY FAR the worst. The Eagles are second-worst in that category at 7.8 yards/tar allowed.
Neal has seen 10 targets over his last two games; I can easily see him scoring six PPR points on just his passing work, giving him a rock-solid floor.
I talked about Neal's usage in my weekly snap share report this week but he played a whopping 81% of the snaps. For those unfamiliar with snap share, that is outrageously high usage for a running back.
The Falcons have been terrible stopping inside runs this year, ranking dead last on yards after contact allowed to opposing backs on runs between the tackles. Overall, they've allowed the most FPPG to running backs on inside runs.
Despite the fact that OC Klint Kubiak is a multi-generational outside run scheme coach, he has significantly changed his approach working with HC Mike Macdonald, as the Seahawks have run between the tackles slightly more than they run to the outside.
The primary beneficiary is obviously Charbs as he runs about half his attempts inside, per Next Gen Stats. The Charbizard has been grossly inefficient, but we know he's going to get work. In a good matchup, he has a usable floor this week with upside for a top-15 performance if he can punch one into the end zone.
The Bills are one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, giving up the fourth-most FPPG to opposing backs. The 5.13 YPC allowed ranks as third worst and the team is dead last in yards after contact allowed to running backs.
Perine has enjoyed over a 40% snap share in four of his last five healthy games, solid work for a backup. Even in limited action, Perine could make an impact.
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Wide ReceiversAlec Pierce vs. JAXThe Jags have allowed the second-most receptions and are tied for the fifth-most touchdowns allowed to outside receivers, resulting in the third-most FPPG allowed to the outside.
Jacksonville has also been banged on deep passes this season, allowing the eighth-most yards and fantasy points per game on passes of 20 or more air yards downfield, according to Next Gen Stats.
The 47.5 point total for this game is unspectacular but solid; it's actually tied for the third-highest point total of the week, meaning it's not a bad game in regards to touchdown exposure.
The Rams have given up the eighth-most yards per game to outside receivers and Marvin Harrison Jr. is banged up as he's working through a heel injury.
We're obviously keeping an eye on his injury here. Washington was forced out of last week's game early due to a hip ailment. He missed practice Wednesday but was back in a limited capacity Thursday. If he doesn't play, insert Austin Trammell as a deep, DEEP sleeper here.
The matchup is solid as the Colts have allowed the third-most FPPG to receivers lined up in the slot. Sure, stars like Rashee Rice racked up 24.1 PPR points in Week 12 but even lesser players like Chimere Dike put up 16.4 fantasy points in Week 8 and Troy Franklin, playing primarily out of the slot, had one of his best days, posting a 9/8/89/TD slash line, good for 24.0 points in Week 2.
The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most receptions to inside receivers and are bottom eight in comp%, touchdowns and fantasy points per game allowed to the slot.
Sean Payton has shifted Bryant's role, moving the rookie primarily inside; Bryant played 61% of his snaps inside last week, 80% in the slot the week prior.
Bryant is flying under the radar right now because he only had three catches for 42 yards last week but much like I was pushing Adonai Mitchell last week, the volume is there: seven targets last week has my Sleeper King senses tingling.
It feels strange advocating this many Saints but the matchup data is pushing me this way. The Bucs have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to receivers in the slot this year and Vele is seeing solid volume; 15 targets over his last two games.
This could very well be a Metchie game against the Dolphins as Miami has been blasted by slot men in recent weeks. It's given up 20-point PPR games to the aforementioned Vele and Deebo Samuel Sr. in back-to-back games. Khalil Shakir posted 12.8 and 14.5 PPR points in his two matchups against the Dolphins and Ladd McConkey had one of his best games of the year with a 23-point explosion game in which he racked up 100 yards and a touchdown.
Metchie has seen 15 targets over his last two contests and has two touchdowns over his last three games.
Dont'e Thornton Jr. is unlikely to play as he works through a concussion.
I know it's a matchups column and I have no great matchup data here as the Broncos are tough, but this is my one-and-only hunch play. If the team actually takes the training wheels off this week and lets Bech play 80-90% of the snaps, I think he comes through.
But because the Raiders are Raider-ing right now, we're probably going to see a lot of Alex Bachmann or some such nonsense. Sigh ...
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most FPPG to the position and Taylor in their last meeting posted a solid 7/5/65 slash line, good for 11.5 PPR points.
Miami is bottom five in yards, receptions and completion percentage allowed to tight ends.