In Roob's Observations: Why do the Eagles keep collapsing in the 4th quarter?
In Roob's Observations: Why do the Eagles keep collapsing in the 4th quarter? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Why are the Eagles falling apart in the fourth quarter? How about some help for A.J. and DeVonta? Is it time for the Eagles to start looking for a new kicker?
We've got a big giant helping of Roob's Random Eagles Observations for your reading pleasure, but you might want to take your time with these since kickoff isn't until 8:15 p.m. Monday.
So please pace yourself. Maybe read one observation every 3 hours until kickoff!
1. If there's one quarter you want to be at your best it's the fourth quarter. That's when the Eagles are at their worst. And as they enter the stretch run, it's a major concern. The Eagles have been outscored 84-56 in the fourth quarter this year, and that minus-28 point differential is 5th-worst in the NFL, behind only the Browns (minus-41), Cards (minus-40), Steelers (minus-30) and Jaguars (minus-29). Last year, the Eagles were an NFL-best plus-52 in the fourth quarter. The minus-28 figure is their worst through 12 games since 2013, Chip Kelly's first year. When you can't finish, it's hard to win. All four games the Eagles have lost they've been terrible in the fourth quarter. The Broncos outscored them 18-0 and won by four. The Giants outscored them 7-0 and won by 17. The Cowboys outscored them 10-0 and won by three. The Bears outscored them 14-6 and won by nine. The Eagles are plus-26 in the first quarter, plus-18 in the second quarter and plus-five in the third quarter. When they aren't outscored in the fourth quarter by at least a touchdown, they're 8-0. When they are, they're 0-4. First three quarters, Saquon Barkley is rushing for 4.4 yards per carry, fourth quarter he's at 2.0. First three quarters, Jake Elliott is 11-for-12, fourth quarter he's 1-for-4. First three quarters, the Eagles are 10th in scoring and 8th in scoring defense. Fourth quarter they're 30th in scoring and 20th in scoring defense. Is it a conditioning issue? Is it a focus issue? Are opposing coaches figuring the Eagles out the first two or three quarters and then taking advantage in the fourth quarter? Probably all of the above. But it's just another thing they need to figure out as the games become more important and the playoffs grow closer.
2. The Eagles are on pace for 34 sacks and 11 interceptions. The only time since sacks became an official stat in 1982 they've had 34 or fewer sacks and 11 or fewer interceptions in a season was 2012, when they had 30 sacks and eight INTs on a 4-12 team that was so bad it got a Hall of Fame head coach fired.
3. One thing the Eagles' moribund offense could benefit from is a third or even fourth viable wide receiver. Nothing against Jahan Dotson, who has made some big plays when he's had opportunities, but he just hasn't had many - 21 targets, 11 catches. It's more a reflection on the predictability of the offense than any particular receiver. Look at the best offenses in the NFL. The Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers, Bears and Patriots have four WRs with at least 20 catches. The Colts, 49ers, Jaguars and Chargers have three. The Eagles have only DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, and they're actually one of only three teams (along with the 4-8 Falcons and 3-9 Jets) with just two WRs with as many as 12 catches. Nick Sirianni keeps saying the offense goes through Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert, and those guys should be getting the ball the most. But it's possible to have more than two WRs who are involved in the offense and still get WR1 and WR2 plenty of targets. Other teams do it and have success. The more weapons you have, the more unpredictable you are and the more dangerous you are. And one thing this offense could use is a healthy dose of unpredictability. If anything it would help Smith and Brown because opposing defenses wouldn't already know where the ball is going. It's not that different from mixing in Tank Bigsby in the running game. It's nothing against Saquon, it's just another weapon defenses have to prepare for and be ready for. Dotson is a free agent after the season, and I can't imagine he'd want to return here after being so under-utilized. I wouldn't mind seeing the Eagles draft a WR in the first few rounds next April. Another weapon for whoever is calling the plays in 2026.
4A. The Eagles are the only NFL team that doesn't have an edge rusher with at least 2 sacks, and it's kind of shocking that a defensive front with Nolan Smith, Jaelan Phillips, Jalyx Hunt and Brandon Graham has only a combined 8 sacks from its edge rushers, including 1 from retired Za'Darius Smith and one each from Patrick Johnson, who is no longer on the roster, and Josh Uche, who hasn't played a defensive snap since October. The last time the Eagles didn't have an edge rusher with 5.0 sacks over a full season was 1997, when 37-year-old future Hall of Famer Richard Dent led the edge group with 4 in his final NFL season. Considering the edge talent on the roster, the lack of sacks is almost unbelievable. I get that quarterbacks get rid of the ball faster than ever, but every other team is getting sacks from their edges. The Eagles just aren't.
4B. The last player the Eagles drafted who had 12 sacks in a season was 2005 5th-round pick Trent Cole, who had 12 in both 2007 and 2009. Before that it was 2001 3rd-round pick Derrick Burgess, who had 16 for the Raiders in 2005. Before that? Clyde Simmons, a 9th-round pick in 1986 who had 15 sacks for the Eagles in 1989, 13 in 1991 and 19 in 1992.
4C. Reggie White had 20 career games with more sacks than any Eagles edge rusher has so far this year in 12 games.
5. Since rushing for 104 yards on just nine carries against the Giants, Tank Bigsby has eight carries in four games (with a 6.1 yards average). With the offense again plodding through quicksand against the Bears, Bigsby only played one snap and didn't have any carries. It's important to remember that Bigbsy is not some undrafted practice squad callup who got hot for one game agianst a bad team. The dude had a legit season in 2024 season for the Jags, with 766 rushing yards, a 4.6 average and seven touchdowns. So far this year, he's averaging 7.6 yards per carry on just 23 rushes. When a guy is that productive in small doses and your offense stinks don't you owe it to your team to at least see if he can help?
6A. According to NFL NextGen Stats, the Eagles currently have a 95 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, and that will increase to 98 percent with a win over the Chargers and drop to 89 percent with a loss. The only teams with higher playoff chances right now are the Patriots (greater than 99 percent), Broncos (99 percent) and Rams (96 percent). The Eagles have only a 9 percent chance at the No. 1 seed, so most likely they will once again have to win three games just to get to the Super Bowl.
6B. The Eagles still have the 2nd-most wins this year over winning teams with four. The Rams have six. The Eagles lost two wins over winning teams when the Chiefs and Cowboys fell to .500.
7. Saquon Barkley's first seven games this year, he averaged 53 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. The last five games he's at 74 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. A far cry from last year but also a significant improvement. That's why a game like last Friday can't happen, where the running game is showing signs of life and still Saquon gets only 13 carries against the NFL's 28th-ranked run defense on a cold, windy day that makes throwing the ball a challenge. It was frustrating to see Barkley actually doing some good things and gaining positive yards and moving the sticks but not getting the ball. A 34-13 pass-run ratio in those conditions is unacceptable. Jalen Hurts was struggling, the offense was sputtering, the Eagles were losing, the running game was functional, and yet ... 34-13. No question it's been a disappointing year for Barkley, but that game was a perfect example why you can't just abandon the running game when you're in a situation where it's tough to get the passing game going and you have a positive matchup in the running game.
8A. Am I the only one getting concerned about Jake Elliott? Elliott is now 4-for-13 from 50 yards and out over the last two years and for the sake of comparison every other NFL kicker combined is 322-for-458 during the same period from 50 and out. So Elliott is 31 percent and everybody else is 70 percent. Among 30 kickers who've attempted at least five 50-yarders since opening day 2024, Elliott is by far the worst. Matt Gay of the Bucs is next-worst at 39 percent. Before last year, Elliott was very good on long kicks, and his 70.3 percent accuracy in his first seven seasons was 13th-best in NFL history going into 2024. Overall, Elliott is 76.9 percent over the last two years (35th of 39 kickers with at least 20 attempts since last year) after making 86.2 percent of his kicks going into 2024 (13th-highest in NFL history among kickers with 100 attempts). Elliott overall is 12-for-16 this year, 5th-worst in the league. After making just 77.8 percent of his kicks last year, Akers is at 75 percent this year. The last Eagles kicker under 78 percent in consecutive years was Chris Boniol in 1997 and 1998. And back then the average kicker was at 78.9 percent. Now it's 85 percent. Elliott has been a great Eagle, and they don't win the Super Bowl without him. But it may be time to find a guy who can make 50-yarders on a consistent basis.
8B. The only kicker other than Jake Elliott to play for the Eagles since Week 2 of the 2017 season is Cameron Dicker, who replaced Elliott for one game in 2022 and made both his field goal attempts in his NFL debut in a win over the Cards - a 42-yarder in the third quarter and a game-winning 23-yarder with 1:45 left. Elliott was healthy the next week and the Eagles released Dicker. The Chargers, who had just lost Dustin Hopkins to a hamstring injury, signed Dicker, and all he's done since then is become the most accurate kicker in NFL history. Dicker has made an absurd 115 of 123 field goals, including 20 of 26 from 50 and out. Among all kickers in NFL history who've attempted at least 50 kicks, Dicker's 93.6 percent accuracy is by far the best. Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys is second at 90.4. Dicker is 5th-most accurate all-time from 50 yards and out at 76.9 percent. The Eagles will see Dicker Monday night when the Eagles face the Chargers in Inglewood.
9. Jalen Hurts Stat of the Day! Hurts' 342 pass attempts are 6th-most in NFL history through 12 games by a quarterback who's thrown two or fewer interceptions. Patrick Mahomes in 2020 threw 463 passes through 12 games and had two INTs, Aaron Rodgers in 2018 threw 463 passes through 12 games and had one INT. Also with more passes than Hurts through 12 games and two or fewer INTs: Rodgers in 2019 (413 passes, two INTs), Dak Prescott in 2016 (358 passes, two INTs) and Mahomes in 2019 (352 passes, two INTs).
10. It was 27 years ago, and that Eagles offense was way worse than this one. When the Eagles hit Week 7, they were 1-5 and averaging 11.5 points per game. So head coach Ray Rhodes took play calling away from Dana Bible and gave it to Bill Musgrave. Next up on the schedule? The Chargers at Jack Murphy Stadium! Hmmmm. Believe it or not, things got even worse under Musgrave. The Eagles averaged only 9.2 points the last nine games of the season. That team got shut out three times, scored three points twice and scored 12 or fewer points in 10 of 16 games. They scored 161 points in all, to this day the third-fewest any team has scored since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. After the season ended with a typically lifeless 20-10 loss to the Giants, everybody was fired, opening the door for Andy Reid to take over as head coach. But curious that there is precedent for a play caller change leading up to a road game against the Chargers. Doesn't look like it's happening now, but it happened once.