China's Growth Is Coming at the Rest of the World's Expense

China has contributed less to global growth this year than the U.S. despite Beijing's frequent criticism of protectionism, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis citing new research from Goldman Sachs economists. U.S. imports are up 10% so far this year compared to a year earlier, while China's imports have fallen 3% in dollar terms. Goldman's economists found that the historical relationship between Chinese growth and global growth has turned negative; where 1% more Chinese output once raised world output by 0.2%, the bank now projects. China will grow about 0.6 percentage points faster annually over the next few years while reducing the rest of the world's growth by 0.1 point per year. China's current account surplus could reach 1% of world GDP by 2029, Goldman estimates, larger than any country's since the late 1940s. China now accounts for 17% of global GDP.

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