Early Week 15 NFL bets to make right now: Why the Lions are a good bet

There is an old trope in the NFL that bettors shouldn't place wagers on the opposite sides of key numbers early in the week. The thought is that there is a chance a line moves onto a crucial number and the value of the bet could be significantly better by waiting to see if the key number emerges.

Sure, if one doesn't have a good understanding of line movement, an idea on how to price games and evaluate a betting market, I kind of agree. However, all betting rules are meant to be broken in certain situations. There are smart ways to parlay. There are prices where bettors should buy the hook on a point and lay the extra vig. There are reasons to execute teasers that are not specifically Wong Teaser" legs. I am a firm believer in the concept that all rules are meant to be broken in the right situations. I have never shied away from betting a +2.5, a -7.5, an over 41.5 or an under 43.5 early in the week.

That leads us to three early Week 15 NFL bets. Here are some spots I already bet.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

The weather report in Denver is shaping up to be really nice this coming weekend. The early signs for beautiful weather are a foundational reason why the first move on this total was toward the over.

The opening total on Sunday night was around 42 consensus in the market, which is now up to 43.5. Green Bay is a team in which explosive plays are a fundamental part of the offense as well. However, both of these defenses are top units, and 44 is a very key number for betting NFL totals (as is 43). A line moving from 42 up toward the over almost never sees a shift through both the 43 and the 44. The rare cases we see this is when a bad weather forecast has artificially driven a line down and the weather report changes.

Here we have a good early-week weather report driving up the total, but this is December in Colorado - things could change and possibly for the worse. Given the strong defensive units and the perceived asymmetric line movement at the current price, there is a much stronger chance this line stays at 43.5 or goes down as opposed to going up. The NFL market is sharp and efficient, especially when relative to key numbers, and therefore I like buying any side or total at what I deem to be the best number we will see all week.

Bet: Under 43.5 (-110), good to -115

Here is another spot to fade early line movement. The Rams have asserted their dominance over the NFL and remain the top team in market-based power rankings. They are 6.3-point favorites over an average team on a neutral field. The Lions have slipped to seventh, being priced as a 4.4-point favorite against an average team on a neutral field. If we compare the differences between these two ratings, the Rams remain 1.9 points ahead. Factor in the 1.5 points for home-field advantage and we are at a price of Los Angeles -3.4.

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

Beyond the simple market ratings, which are formulated based on closing-line data in previous weeks and weighs more recent games heavier, we need to factor in the injuries on the Lions side. Brian Branch suffered a season-ending injury in Week 14, and he joins the laundry list of players reeling for the Lions. Kerby Joseph, Sam LaPorta (and his backup Brock Wright), and Kalif Raymond are other notable names all out for Detroit. However, the new injuries being priced in - mainly Branch - aren't a big enough weight for this line to move to Lions +6.

We saw some flashes of a Rams -6.5 emerge and those were quickly taken out. I suspect Lions +6 also leaves the board sooner rather than later. This is closing around 5/5.5 - a proper account of market ratings and manual adjustments for injury pricing and sharp action.

Bet: Detroit Lions +6

The final place to attack early bets for Week 15 is in the player prop market.

Tampa Bay is in a near must-win game against the Falcons after losing to the New Orleans Saints last week. The Bucs are still atop the NFC South, but are tied with the Carolina Panthers. The key for Tampa Bay is they are just starting to get fully healthy, as it has been a season of turmoil and injuries. Fortunately, the skill-position players were not lost to season-ending causes.

Baker Mayfield should be steadily healing from his shoulder joint injury, Bucky Irving is back and dominating again, Chris Godwin has returned to the lineup - and his snap count is steadily rising - and most recent reports from Todd Bowles suggest star WR Mike Evans might be coming back Thursday as well. The Bucs have their core back offensively, which means I think they can sustain long drives.

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are a run-first team with a two-headed monster in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. That duo will be going up against a very strong nose tackle in Vita Vea. Assuming Vea and Tampa Bay's front seven can cause the Falcons' rushing offense to lack efficiency, I think we can assume Atlanta is going to lose the time of possession battle here. Drake London is also hurt for the Falcons, hindering their passing attack.

The best way to target sustained drives for the Buccaneers and for them to win the time-of-possession battle is to play Kirk Cousins under 31.5 pass attempts. Surpassing 32 means some key third-down conversions, some key defensive spots and relying on the short passing game as much as the strong run game. I will fade Cousins and the Falcons at least one more time.

Bet: Kirk Cousins under 31.5 pass attempts (-105)