Fantasy Football: The return of Philip Rivers, cold weather and more storylines that will define Week 15

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through eight storylines that will define the week. After 14 weeks, how will the trends of fantasy football define Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs?

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Tua in the Cold

In Weeks 16 and 17, Tua Tagovailoa will be back home in sunny Miami, comfortable and happy. However, in Week 15, he will be anything but warm. As of Thursday, Pittsburgh is projected to be under 20 degrees on Monday Night Football as they host the Hawaiian QB. This would be the coldest game of Tagovailoa's career. In games under 50 degrees, Tagovailoa has scored 10 or fewer fantasy points in five of his nine games, only winning two of them.

The more important factor is how it affects Jaylen Waddle. Pittsburgh has ranked 26th versus WRs, yet as of late, they've been better than average. In the nine games, Tagovailoa has only 11 passing touchdowns, so it comes as a shock that Waddle has performed well in fantasy. In four of his six games he's been active for, Waddle had 18+ PPR points, largely thanks to breaking off some of his notorious big plays. Although the Steelers have struggled against the pass this season, they surprisingly rank No. 1 in the league in explosive passes allowed. It puts Miami's star WR in an intriguing spot with a low floor, but keeping his ceiling potential. Since Tyreek Hill's injury, Waddle has usually been good for 18+ points or under 10, not often in between.

Lamar Jackson vs. Cincy again

On paper, the Bengals are the best matchup for opposing QBs. Lamar Jackson scored 7.5 fantasy points against them in Week 13. It was a nightmare performance to continue a three-game skid of under 10 fantasy points for the 2024 QB1. We finally saw a bounce back versus the Steelers last week with over 20 points, but can Jackson be trusted in Round 1 of the fantasy playoffs?

First, 7.5 is somewhat of a lie. In a multiverse world, Isaiah Likely doesn't fumble at the one-inch yard line, Zay Flowers doesn't get called for a phantom offensive pass interference and Jackson's day looks much better. Those two plays would've given Jackson 13 more fantasy points to cross 20 on the day. Sometimes luck isn't on your side. Usually, the luck is on the side of whoever plays the Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks last in passing fantasy PPG allowed when removing the Ravens game in Week 13. Even after his poor performance, Jackson averages 23.7 PPG versus Cincinnati in his career. With the Bengals defense specifically struggling against tight ends, the strength of the Ravens' passing offense, I'd be surprised if we saw a repeat performance in a must-win game for Baltimore.

Most improved defenses in points per game allowed from 2024 to 2025:
-Panthers (-8.6 PPG)
-Patriots (-6)
-Texans (-5.9)
-Rams (-5.2)
-49ers (-5)

Biggest dropoffs:
-Bengals (+6.2)
-Cardinals (+4.5)
-Commanders (+4.2)
-Bears (+4)
-Giants (+3.8) pic.twitter.com/UJRgySbomh

- Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 10, 2025

Backup QBs versus Top Defenses

The best D/STs to play in fantasy football are often not the most talented, but the ones playing the least talent at the quarterback position. Thankfully for us, there's plenty to choose from in Week 15. A few with both: Seattle (No. 1 in PPG) versus the Colts third- or fourth-string QB, Houston (No. 2 in PPG) versus an adequate Jacoby Brissett and my top waiver, the Jaguars defense, against the Jets offense at home.

It doesn't hurt to have Mother Nature on your side, either. Chicago will host Shedeur Sanders in potentially negative temperatures, the Steelers host Miami, Philadelphia will be home versus the Raiders and Geno Smith, and finally, Kansas City facing off against the Chargers' struggling offensive line. The final group will be the defenses that may not be the most elite of the elites, but face off against favorable quarterbacks. Mostly available on waivers, Dallas vs. J.J. McCarthy, Tampa Bay versus Kirk Cousins on Thursday night and the 49ers versus rookie Cam Ward. Happy streaming!

The Return of Philip Rivers

My friend sent the news in the group chat. My first thought was not Wow, a 44-year old Philip Rivers is returning," it was My friend got duped by a fake Twitter account." I still can't believe it's real, but a grandfather could be playing on Sunday versus the Seahawks defense. The good news is the Colts offense is incredible outside of the QB position. Third-string rookie Riley Leonard was still able to lead the Colts to four red-zone drives after the Daniel Jones injury last week. My hope would be Leonard leading the way this weekend, but if not, how does it affect Jonathan Taylor?

Seattle's defense is averaging an incredible 8.7 rushing fantasy PPG allowed to RBs this season. And 75% of Taylor's points have come on the ground this season as the star RB has gone as high as the offense will take him (which has worked well so far). As two-touchdown road underdogs, the Colts are projected to score just above 14 points. The ceiling will always be high for Taylor, but the floor is scary low for a usual top-three RB.

2026 version is also insane https://t.co/D3eaCUxQ40pic.twitter.com/eG12F2cDk9

- SleeperBengals (@SleeperBengals) December 10, 2025

The Goff vs. Stafford Revenge Match

The Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff trade: a rare win-win. They will face off once again on Sunday in what could be a fantasy gold mine. The projected total for the QB revenge game sits at a staggering 54.5. Stafford seems the easy start of the two. The current fantasy QB5 faces a Lions defense that is decimated by injuries and have seen the biggest drop off in production in the second half of the year. In passing fantasy PPG allowed, they rank 27th before losing key players such as safety Brian Branch. Jared Goff's matchup isn't as bad as most expect. The Rams' passing defense in the second half has also dipped, down to 17th in fantasy points allowed.

There are two key benefits that both will have. First, playing indoors. While the temperatures in Chicago are below zero degrees, the two pocket-passers will be playing (halfway) indoors in Los Angeles. A huge benefit this time of year. The second is, funny enough, each other. With elite offenses, sometimes the QBs are too dominant for their own good. In plenty of games, the Lions and Rams go up big and get away from the pass. With both having top-level offenses, we could see great passing volume throughout the game for the QBs. Goff is a great superflex quarterback and deserves consideration in joining Stafford as a start in 1QB leagues.

Chargers' running back duo vs. Kansas City

When Omarion Hampton was on the field last week, he wasn't out there for no reason. The rookie only played 22 snaps in his return, but he was given a healthy 15 touches, something only 21 other RBs can say, including Kimani Vidal. Both RBs panned out in a way on Monday Night Football vs. the Eagles due to their receiving, the issue is, that receiving volume hasn't been there. Since Week 6, the Chargers rank 31st in RB target share, a trend all too similar to Harbaugh offenses.

The Chargers backs may need that receiving to perform to standard against Kansas City. Usually, being road underdogs with a split backfield is not an ideal combo. If the receiving doesn't get a bump, it's much harder to rely on low rushing volume behind this offensive line. Hampton is a very talented player, but so are plenty of other backs in poor situations. I would expect a pure 50/50 split for now, greatly hurting Hampton's floor. Kansas City ranks third in rushing fantasy PPG to RB adjusted to the schedule, making it difficult to trust in the Los Angeles RBs as more than a flex prayer.

Jim Harbaugh on Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal:

It's really impossible to predict the amount of carries for somebody... [we have] two great backs: Omarion and Kimani. pic.twitter.com/feZzEJFjCh

- Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 10, 2025

Devin Neal vs. Carolina

Devin Neal has slowly become a viable fantasy option over the last two weeks. Last season, several backup running backs came to the rescue in the fantasy playoffs, such as Tyjae Spears and Ameer Abdullah. Neal at least has the volume to be the next. The Saints rookie is top-10 in percent of team carries and has run the most routes among RBs as a starter. If he gets his third straight game of 17+ touches, he'll have an opportunity to put up great numbers versus Carolina.

The Panthers have fallen off a cliff as a run defense in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, only the Jets and Giants have allowed more rushing fantasy PPG to opposing offenses. When facing off in Week 10, the Saints gave Alvin Kamara 25 touches versus Carolina, gaining 115 yards, the second-highest of his 2025 season. Neal is my current RB22 and worthy of a FLEX spot for most.

Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Washington

Wan'Dale Robinson is one of the bigger fantasy surprises of the season, sitting as the WR19 in PPG in PPR leagues. Only six players have more targets this season, as Robinson has five consecutive games with 8+ targets. The volume has been great, but the matchup can't be better. Washington, in the second half of the year, with its top two corners out for the season, has ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback. The only thing stopping opposing fantasy players is the Commanders being blown out. Thankfully, the Giants defense isn't much better. New York is only a 2.5-point favorite at home, hopefully keeping the game close for Robinson to take full advantage of his stellar matchup.

As the Commanders move their secondary around, Noah Igbinoghene will make just his second start of the season as the primary slot corner. Washington has been increasing their zone defense to the second-highest rate this month, setting up Robinson, who is ninth in targets per route versus zone coverage, as a consistent short-area target for Jaxson Dart. With the Giants running their QB less, Robinson can be a high-volume WR to help move the chains, as well as fantasy teams to the second round.