Steelers vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props
Tis the season.
It's the time of year where we get a lot of weather-centric handicaps, and if you've listened to anyone talking about this game this week, you didn't have to listen too carefully - or for all that long.
No, the Dolphins don't have a very good record in the cold - though we've seen the bar for what is cold" get dropped like the mercury in December after Miami won easily in freezing, but bearable, conditions in New York (41 degrees at kickoff).
Yes, it helped that Miami played the Jets, but who do you think they've been playing when it's been aggressively chilly as part of Tua Tagovailoa's 0-5 record in sub-40 degree temperatures?
Th answer? The Bills (twice), the 2024 Packers, the Chiefs and the Titans (when Tennessee went 12-5 in 2021). Some were close, and others were not, but was Miami supposed to win any of those?
The trends don't like the Dolphins here, but the past week has seen a bizarre situation with a key personnel issue that actually affects the on-field matchup in a way that conflicts with the worries over the weather.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42.5)The Steelers will be without T.J. Watt due to a punctured lung stemming from a needling treatment. A star since basically the first time he stepped on the field for Pittsburgh, Watt's missed 11 games in his career.
The Steelers have won once without him.
Pittsburgh, often boasting a dangerous defense thanks to an aggressive pass rush, has allowed an average of 27 points in the 10 losses, with the lone win coming 20-18 over the Buccaneers in Tom Brady's last season - thanks to a late stop of a two-point conversion, and a Steelers drive to run out the clock.
If there's a silver lining to Watt's being out, it's that Pittsburgh might not have many chances to rush the passer. During the Dolphins' four-game winning streak, Tagovailoa has only thrown the ball 85 total times. Part of that is due to having a lead for much of those four games, and being able to run the ball 105 times in that time, but you can't hand the ball off that high a percentage of your plays if you're not successful at it.
Since Week 10, the Dolphins are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per rushing play (behind only the Rams). That's come after starting the season 13th, with a negative EPA/play on running plays.
Meanwhile, on the season, the Steelers are 28th in the defensive version of that metric, and the last time they were at home, the Bills set an all-time record for most rushing yards by a visiting team in Pittsburgh.
Tagovailoa might not be thrilled about playing in the cold, but how many 42-year-olds with a fracture in their left wrist do you know that would be psyched about the prospective conditions on Monday night?
Unlike Miami's QB, Aaron Rodgers doesn't have a reliable, and potentially explosive, ground attack to rely on. Plus, if Tagovailoa has to throw more than usual, he should have more time than expected to do it without Watt bearing down on him.
Pick: Dolphins +3
Player propsQB Tua Tagovailoa under 28.5 pass attempts (-125)You can do the math on what 85 pass attempts averages out to over the four games where the Dolphins have focused more on the run game, but we'll make it easy on you: The most throws Tagovailoa has attempted is 23. Given the potential mismatch between the Dolphins' run game and the Steelers' run defense, it's going to take a series of special outlier events for Pittsburgh to take Mike McDaniel out of his game plan for his quarterback.
QB Aaron Rodgers longest pass completion under 35.5 yards (-120)If you had the under on this prop last week, you know it lost on the first play from scrimmage. You likely heard how surprised Jim Nantz and Tony Romo were that Rodgers connected deep to DK Metcalf, since the Steelers hadn't completed a long pass in the entire month of November. Rodgers added a later long gain thanks to a coverage break on a checkdown to Jaylen Warren, but we'll bet that it will be tougher to connect for a long gain on a much colder night.
WR Adam Thielen over 1.5 receptions (+110)If you weren't on top of the real-life waiver wire last week, it might still be news to you that Thielen is even on the Steelers, but the veteran was picked up and immediately inserted into the Pittsburgh lineup, playing the second-most snaps of any of their wide receivers.
Thielen only caught one ball on one target, for all of four yards, but he played that much because he knows where to go (an apparent issue for the Steelers' pass-catchers). After another week to practice with Rodgers, let's bet that a career of being sure-handed earns Thielen a couple looks that a long-time possession receiver can haul in.
Anytime touchdownDarren Waller (+333)In Waller's return to the NFL this season, he started this stint with the Dolphins by scoring four times in three games. Then, he got hurt 16 snaps into his fourth.
The pass-catching tight end has been back for a pair of games, and while he's been held scoreless, of the minimal throws Tagovailoa has attempted, three in each game have gone Waller's way.
While handicapping the side by the weather can be perilous, near the goal line, size is a high priority in the cold.
Jaylen Wright (+500)/Ollie Gordon (+825)Let's split a unit across each of the Dolphins' backup running backs.
Why not De'Von Achane? Because his -130 price tag is a little steep for a player who left last week's game with a rib injury.
Why Jaylen Wright? Because he picked up right where Achane left off in New York, running for 107 yards, which likely earned himself the opportunity to spell the starter (even if Achane's fully healthy).
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
Why the long shot, Gordon? Because, at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, he's played the role of short-yardage hammer. He's scored four times in this, his rookie season, including in three of the Dolphins' last four games.
Kenneth Gainwell (+175)At this point in his Steelers tenure, Rodgers has his guys" that he trusts, particularly in the red zone, and Gainwell is one of those, as he's capable of running an outside toss for a race to the pylon as he did in Baltimore last week, or in the passing game, as he did twice against the Bengals a few weeks back. In fact, in last week's crucial game, Gainwell was involved in eight different red-zone plays.
Darnell Washington (+400)While Washington hasn't scored since Week 7, he's actually become more involved in the offense, up until leaving last week's game in Baltimore before getting his now-usual 4-6 targets (five times since a Week 5 bye). The big, 6-7, 260-pound target doesn't seem like one who the Dolphins' defense would be interested in tackling in the cold, and Rodgers has looked his way more than even the counting stats suggest, with several targets called back due to penalty.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.