Week 16 fantasy QB lineup choices are a microcosm of messy season for typically easy position to find answers

It should have been a carefree, relaxing Tuesday. I was settling in for a fantasy football audit, looking at the teams that advanced to the semifinal round. And eventually I came to my Guillotine League team, which had advanced to the 2-team final. Holding all the FAB leverage in that league, the stocked waiver wire was mine to enjoy, alone.

Some choices were easy. Trey McBride, welcome aboard. Jahmyr Gibbs, come on down. But then I settled on quarterback, and the anxiety started to creep in.

What happened to fantasy quarterback in 2025? And why can't I settle on someone I feel good about for Week 16? I have 30 options to choose from, and I only need to feel safe about one. Why is this so difficult?

My Guillotine League opponent holds Josh Allen and Drake Maye, two right answers from this season. If you went vanity QB in your draft, Allen was the only right pick. If you went QB on a budget, Maye was one of the better choices. Everyone recognizes this.

I already had Matthew Stafford on my team, but I don't love him for Week 16 - not in a head-to-head Guillotine League situation. Seattle is a tricky road matchup, it's a short turnaround for a Thursday game, Davante Adams might not play. I needed a safer pick, I've known that all along.

But where are the safe picks?

Jalen Hurts hasn't run as proactively this year, and he was pulled last week after Philadelphia got way ahead. Even with Washington on the schedule, he makes me a little nervous. Maybe that's just the gravity of the moment talking.

Joe Burrow talked like a disengaged quarterback last week, then played like it against Baltimore. I'm also tied to Ja'Marr Chase already. I don't want this duo deciding my matchup, even against Miami. I'll obviously roll with Chase, but pass on Burrow.

Is Brock Purdy good enough to start when in theory I should have no worse than the QB3 on the board? Can I trust Dak Prescott after the Week 15 face plant against Minnesota? Do I have the nerve to trust a journeyman like Jacoby Brissett, while acknowledging he's on a two-month heater? Garbage Time hero and all that. But do I want two Arizona pieces in my championship game? Obviously McBride is going to start for me.

Trevor Lawrence is on atear, for sure. But I can't play him at Denver, not in this format.

Then I thought, maybe I'm going about this wrong. Who has the easiest matchups for Week 16? As it turns out, all the wrong quarterbacks.

Dallas is the easiest fantasy defense for opposing QBs. Justin Herbert draws the Pokes in Week 16. Herbert has the left-hand issue and an injury-ravaged offensive line. The Chargers don't want to throw proactively these days. He's out.

Cincinnati's defense is the next-best draw. Tua Tagovailoa was benched on Wednesday for a seventh-round rookie. Miami's not a consideration.

Tampa Bay's pass defense is the third target. Bryce Young isn't good enough to play in any format that requires just one starter. Even in Superflex formats, Young is a hard button to click.

J.J. McCarthy against the Giants? He's coming on, but again, not good enough for this format.

I revisited quarterback ADP from the summer, and 12 of the top 21 names have had seasons mucked up by injury (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, C.J. Stroud, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr.). And even some of the miracle late-round hits after that group (Daniel Jones, Jaxson Dart) have been derailed by injuries.

And when quarterbacks get hurt, offenses as a whole struggle. That's why 2025 has felt like such a challenge for so many fantasy managers. We just want to feel good about as many offenses as possible, and it's been difficult this year. And the injuries have forced teams to scramble for some unusual replacements; guys like Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers have taken meaningful snaps this year. Carson Wentz and Mac Jones had their moments. Every two or three weeks, I talk myself into someone like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. This is the world we're living in.

After the season, I'll run through my Exit Interview series and do a deeper audit of what went right and wrong at every position. I suppose today is just a practice round for the quarterback piece. But if you're struggling with your Week 16 decisions, it's probably not just the gravity of the moment talking. You're also likely getting tripped up by all the quarterback injuries, and the tricky shape of the matchups on this particular slate.

Ultimately, I settled on Hurts for my Week 16 Guillotine League starter. Hopefully he'll be engaged early, because I'm worried the Eagles could downshift the offense if the game quickly gets out of hand. A Philadelphia defensive touchdown would be painful for me, too, stealing opportunity from the offense. But Hurts, even in his current form, is probably the right pick.

Paradox of Choice is a thing, amigos. Sometimes it's difficult to make a decision, even when your options are just about unlimited. Keep measuring all week, that's what we do. But you probably should cut just once.