Fantasy Football Trust Meter: Who can we confidently put in our Week 16 playoff lineups?
When you think about it, depending on which region of NFL fandom you reside in, it's awkward talking about football this time of year. Statistically speaking, most of your friends are out of the fantasy football playoffs. They probably got Kyle Pitts'd" or Trevor Lawrence'd" over the weekend, making fantasy a subject to avoid for a bit.
Meanwhile, you either started or somehow missed the spike weeks that tilted most of Week 15. You got to ride into work with a smile on your face, ready to pull up highlights featuring guys on your roster and discuss start/sits for the semi-finals. Everyone else is upset, and you pull up like the Get in There and Make It About You" meme. But, hey, heavy is the (soon-to-be-worn) crown, right?
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Sunday featured more chaos than usual, with season-ending injuries and playoff-eliminating losses that have us questioning the teams on the outside of the postseason picture. At the same time, even some of the squads that played well deserve a second look to see if they should be in our circle of trust for Week 16.
The Jesus Christ Lizard King' is BackNow, to be fair, everybody figured the 49ers would be productive on offense coming out of their bye. They were 12.5-point home favorites. The core of the passing game was healthy (minus a late-week back injury for Christian McCaffrey). Plus, Tennessee had allowed four straight top-12 finishes to the QBs it faced leading up to Sunday. And that list of passers featured Davis Mills and Shedeur Sanders. In any case, Brock Purdy didn't have me completely sold until about the end of the third quarter.
Brock Purdy with the jump pass to George Kittle for his 3rd touchdown pass of the game!pic.twitter.com/Zr7R0O4BjL
- Coach Yac (@Coach_Yac) December 14, 2025
Purdy's high kick to go with the TD throw was what pushed me over the edge. I'm kidding, but movements like that - bringing his full weight down on the same foot that sidelined him for over half the season - isn't nothing. Neither was his return to high-end levels of efficiency as a passer.
Success Rate: 62.5% (Week 15), 49.2% (Weeks 4-13)
EPA per Dropback: 0.53, 0.02
Adj. Yards per Attempt: 11.8, 6.3
If you're about to mention the Shanahan scheme as the reason for the improvement, let me stop you right there. Purdy was running play action (30.8%) and getting similar yards after the catch (5.5) as he had over his last four games dealing with the toe injury. At the same time, PFF charted Purdy having the most dropbacks with him moving out of the pocket (13) of the year. Accordingly, it was the first time Purdy connected with one of his pass-catchers for a score on one of those designs since Week 1. But, of course, touchdowns are tough to predict. However, based on his movement in and out of the protection, there is a more fantasy-relevant part of Purdy's game that we can anticipate seeing moving forward.
Scramble Rate: 13.5% (Week 15), 2.3% (Weeks 4-13)
EPA On Scrambles: 1.6, 0.2
Rushing First Downs per Game: 4, 1.8
I'd never heard of basilisks being called Jesus Christ Lizards," nor had I ever seen them compared to mobile QBs. But that's why George Kittle is one of a kind. Anyway, Purdy's sneaky rushing ability was on full display. And the point of emphasis shouldn't be on the results. I mean, we'll take the extra 4.4 points. But more importantly, Purdy evading pressure, picking up yards on the ground and extending drives has been his calling card since taking over as the starter.
Bottom line: With both aspects of his production back for Purdy, he's got my full trust as a QB1 to close out the fantasy playoffs. Neither matchup will invite the same upside as the Titans (at Colts, vs. Bears). However, with the passing and running game coming together for the offense, we should consider Purdy a QB1 for the rest of the season.
Sean Payton Knew It All AlongProgress isn't linear. I mentioned the same phrase when talking about the Broncos during the recap show on Sunday night. More reps don't necessarily mean more knowledge. That's especially true for QB play as teams try to adjust the post-snap picture each play every game. And I think most folks would be amenable to the idea that young signal-callers need more than just time on the field (see McCarthy, J.J.). However, big performances become tougher to square.
Bo Nix played the best professional game of his life on Sunday pic.twitter.com/8Rosk3LdBL
- Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 15, 2025
First off, salute to Bo Nix for stepping up. Green Bay came to Empower Field with just one enemy passer to cross 200 passing yards on it since October. Its defensive front was top 12 in pressure and sack rate over the last month. But Denver's offense nixed (I mean, the pun was right there) any concerns about its aerial attack as it cemented its bid for the playoffs. And surprisingly enough, the box score doesn't tell the entire story.
EPA per Dropback (vs Zone Coverage): 0.53 (Week 15), 0.02 (Weeks 1-14)
Passing Success Rate: 59.3%, 41.6%
Completion Percentage: 74.1%, 63.3%
The Packers have run a mix of zone and man defensive coverages throughout the year, with DC Jeff Hafley primarily relying on a four-man pass rush. Coincidentally, having more than five defenders drop back in coverage was Nix's kryptonite. Of the 34 QBs with more than 200 dropbacks, Denver's QB1 had the third-most interceptions and the ninth-lowest completion percentage once a team moved away from man concepts. But the Packers caught Nix on the right day. He hit season highs throwing the ball, independent of what he saw after the snap. The other surprising part was his aggression.
Now, it's not to say Nix can't or won't throw deep. But things tend to go awry when he strays from the short area of the field. Nix has had seven games this year with a passing aDOT over eight air yards. Of those seven, his passing success rate was over 50.0% in just two: against Dallas, and last Sunday. Only three of those games featured a positive EPA per dropback (against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Packers). It was like there was another player in a No. 10 jersey on Sunday afternoon.
Bottom line: Nix's outlier peripherals are encouraging, but his output could go either way in Week 16. The Jaguars play a similar mix of coverages in their secondary and can get after the passer. Plus, outside of Courtland Sutton, there isn't a pass-catcher we're looking to roster this late in the year. With it being the first time we've seen this type of result from Nix, the volatility is too much to trust heading into Week 16.
Sonic Needs to Knuckle UpUnsurprisingly, I try to apply a process over results" approach to most things I do. Whether it's my love for playing poker or being an engineer, being methodical and using as much information as I've got at the time to make decisions is something I can lean on even when the outcomes don't break my way. But there wasn't much thought when it came to starting Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday.
Gibbs' three-TD game the week before aside, the Lions' RB1 had taken on 19 or more touches in the four games beforehand. Just from passing alone, Detroit had a top-five offense across most metrics. And for Week 15 specifically, Gibbs was playing in the contest with the highest team total. Before kickoff, he was right where fantasy managers would want their RB1, at the intersection of talent and (projected) opportunity.
But then the game started.
This David Montgomery stiff-arm...sheesh. It's been a rough few weeks for Emmanuel Forbes Jr. pic.twitter.com/7Zv7Fck1oo
- Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom) December 14, 2025
To be clear, the fact that David Montgomery is on the field getting carries isn't an issue. He's a good rusher (11th amongst all RBs in yards after contact per attempt - min 100 carries), deserves touches and has been effective in a reduced role this season. It's where and in what context the touches come.
A lone carry at the start of the second quarter shouldn't bother anybody. But Montgomery taking short-yardage totes (the above play came on a 3rd and 1) caught my eye. He also took the only goal-line attempt and scored the team's sole rushing TD on the day. The only thing that could make this worse would be if Montgomery were challenging Gibbs on base downs.
(Early-Down) Rushing Success Rate (since their bye): 47.2% (Montgomery), 42.2% (Gibbs)
Yards after Contact per Rush: 3.2, 3.9
To be fair, Gibbs isn't the only perpetrator in this scenario. Beat writers have been speculating about the need for a change along the offensive line since November. There hasn't been the same push up front as in years past. They went from league average in run block win rate last season to a bottom-10 unit now. Luckily, Gibbs has been able to cover up some of the issues. His explosive plays have counted for 55.1% of his scrimmage yards over his last seven games. And that's part of why I'm willing to look past this dud performance.
Bottom line: Gibbs has some (not all!) of my trust for Week 16. Yes, Montgomery has been up to a +30% rushing share over the last two games. But without Sam LaPorta, Gibbs has averaged 7.0 targets per game (most among all RBs). In addition, the Lions get to host a Steelers' run defense that has given up a top-12 finish to an opposing RB in four of their last seven games. And since Detroit is in a must-win situation, it'll need everything out of their RB1 to keep their playoff hopes alive.
There's A New Chief in Kansas CityI have re-watched the end of the Chiefs-Chargers game no less than twenty times.
Derwin James calls game pic.twitter.com/Gk2w72ndE6
- NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
No, as a Bengals fan, I was not laughing at their downfall. People in glass houses, you know? But I genuinely couldn't believe it. Sure, their lack of a potent run game and confusing target distribution were constant gripes. But the thought sitting in the back of everyone's minds was that HC Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes would figure it out. They always have. Now, Gardner Minshew is back in our lives, putting some fantasy managers into something of a tough spot for Week 16. However, I can squint and see things working out.
(Weeks 1-12, 2024) Play-Action Rate (on Early Downs): 30.9%, 20th (out of 31 QBs - min. 200 dropbacks)
Passing Success Rate: 47.0%, 21st
Completion Percentage: 71.9%, 9th
All we're looking for from Minshew is to sustain drives and get the ball out to two guys: Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. And former OC Luke Getsy had a similar setup for the journeyman QB in Las Vegas. The overall scheme was different than Reid and OC Matt Nagy's (Getsy has the Shanahan/LaFleur influence from his time in Green Bay). Still, it pulled all the levers of using play-action concepts and attacking the middle of the field on short and intermediate routes on early downs. Coincidentally, Mahomes' early-down play-action rate this season was 30.5% (but he was pressing the ball downfield more often). Even better, Minshew's top targets in Vegas aren't too dissimilar to who he'll be looking to this Sunday.
Jakobi Meyers: 24.1% (Target Rate), 8.3 (Targets per Game), 33.0% (Air Yard Share)
Brock Bowers: 24.1%, 8.3, 20.1%
Travis Kelce doesn't have the juice that Bowers displayed in his rookie season, but the same traits are there. And while it's easy to see the commonalities between Rashee Rice and Meyers, there's no question about who can attack zone coverages better. That's why, even on short notice, I wasn't shocked to see these two garner all of Minshew's attempts with their season on the line.
Bottom line: I'll be honest. I've got Rashee Rice on a playoff roster, and I'm starting him this weekend. But the results could go either way. Seven of the last eight QBs to face the Titans have thrown for two TDs or more. Tennessee has just three interceptions since October. But it's also fourth in pressure rate since its bye, and Minshew isn't known for his ability to work out of structure. Rice and Kelce's projectable volume is the only supporting data point to keep them in your starting roster. But if the Chiefs' offensive line injuries continue to pile up, Minshew's downfall may be yours, too.