Micah Parsons’ absence will impact Packers vs. Bears, beyond dramatically: ‘Our whole game plan was centered around him’

In a vacuum, perhaps Ben Johnson's statement was believable.

The Chicago Bears head coach sought this week to downplay the season-ending ACL tear to edge rusher Micah Parsons ahead of the Packers' Saturday night visit to Chicago.

Just because one player goes down, that doesn't mean that this is going to change a whole lot for them," Johnson said Wednesday. I know everyone wants to make it about the one particular player, but this is a very good defense, regardless of who's on the field for them."

No one is arguing Parsons was the only talent on a Packers defense ranked eighth in scoring and sixth overall. But for 14 prior games this season, coaches and players across the league have indeed insisted that Parsons was a game-changer and a force on his own.

You've just got to be hyper-aware of where he is," Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said before the Browns' Week 3 game against Green Bay.

All hands on deck," Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said in Week 4.

Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon warned you better have a plan for" Parsons, while Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin warned you better stay out of one-dimensional circumstances." One need look no further than Parsons' $46 million-a-year contract to confirm the two-time All-Pro's ability.

Most certainly," Tomlin said, I think his paycheck indicates so."

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Even Johnson, two weeks ago, discussed the challenge of keeping tabs on Parsons.

There's a number of guys that you play in the league that you have to be aware of on every snap," added his offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, ond Dec. 4. ... The biggest thing is that you don't overlook anything. You don't ever overlook where he is on the field."

Thus despite the expected party line that the Bears can't overlook the Packers in their post-Parsons section of the season, Green Bay's opponents will indeed encounter a different calculus the rest of the year.

As the Packers look to steal the NFC North lead from the Bears this week, their arsenal is depleted.

It's not going to be one individual that can [fill his shoes]," Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said. They're going to have to feed off one another and rally around each other and it's going to be opportunities for other guys to get in there ...

It's going to be tough."

Parsons impacted Packers quickly - and opponents took notice in game planning

The Packers did not acquire Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys until 10 days before their season kicked off. Some players would have struggled to keep pace with a hyper-accelerated onboarding.

Parsons did not.

In 14 games with his new team, the 2021 first-round pick led the league with 83 quarterback pressures, per Next Gen Stats, and ranked second only to the Denver Broncos' Nik Bonitto with 34 quick pressures (Bonitto has 36).

Parsons' 12.5 sacks rank third in the league, while his 20.5% pressure rate led all edge rushers entering the last clip. He pressured quarterbacks at that rate despite, per Next Gen Stats, fighting through double teams at the third-highest rate (21.6%) among edge players.

Add in Parsons' versatility to rush from the right and left edge, the interior defensive line or as an off-ball linebacker, and opponents each week required Parsons-specific game plans to thwart him.

Our whole game plan was centered around him," one assistant, whose team faced Parsons this year, told Yahoo Sports. The assistant spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose their team's game plan.

We made sure we ran it a ton to stay in third and manageable and to wear him down defending the run. Now teams might try to air it out more and take their shots downfield. We were mostly going to do short quick passes and run."

An assistant from another team who faced Parsons agreed: They would have changed their game plan if the Packers couldn't rely on Parsons to get pressure with just four defensive linemen.

We had a plan for him on most third downs," the assistant told Yahoo Sports on condition of anonymity. It's going to stress their secondary. They're going to have to hold up instead of counting on the pressure getting there.

It will impact it a ton."

The uphill battle Packers now face

Rashan Gary struggled to collect himself in the postgame locker room Sunday when asked about his fellow defensive lineman's injury. Despair hit as Green Bay recognized its margin for error on any playoff run was slipping away quickly.

Starters in tight end Tucker Kraft, center Elgton Jenkins and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt were already lost for the season. The Packers had found some ways to retool - but Parsons felt like an anchor they could not afford to lose.

For 13 seconds after Gary fielded a question, he was wordless. He released three full-body sighs, his shoulders lowering and his head shaking.

It hurt to see," said Gary, who was enjoying a strong season as opponents shifted their attention to double- and triple-teaming Parsons. Will be missed on this. You all know his impact, but that gives us guys up front more opportunities when they come to rush, cause havoc.

With his absence, we have to step up up front."

The Packers defense has ranked 10th in pass-rush win rate (40%), per ESPN's metrics, this season in large part because of Parsons not only performing but also elevating those around him.

Entering Sunday's game in which they lost him, Green Bay's sack rate with Parsons on the field (7.5%) nearly doubled their rate with him off the field (4.2%), per Next Gen Stats. The unit was generating pressure within 2.69 seconds on average with Parsons on the field; that extended to 3.05 seconds without him.

Tight ends and running backs were called into action in order to chip Parsons. Receivers were asked to reach their spots quickly in anticipation that longer-developing routes may not be viable.

Parsons commanded significant attention in meetings and in live-game defensive diagnoses.

So while the Packers' chance at making the playoffs remains at 89%, per Next Gen Stats, their chance at advancing through the postseason has taken a hit.

That will resonate first on Saturday night, as the Packers travel to face the Bears 13 days after they triumphed over them 28-21 at Lambeau Field.

And it will continue to resonate in the coming weeks when teams need to worry less about obvious passing situations and third downs, feeling more confident in their ability to run a straightforward game plan than Packers opponents did during the first 14 games of their season.

The Packers' defensive unraveling against the Broncos likely won't become standard: Allowing a season-worst four passing touchdowns and 134.7 passer rating to Bo Nix almost certainly reflected the psychological letdown of Parsons' noncontact injury as much as it did the talent deficit.

Green Bay has time to compose itself now, Gary's midweek interview already carrying a heightened sense of resolve as the team moves forward.

But they'll still need to recognize that their gameplan for Chicago on Saturday must change. Parsons accounted for eight of the 16 pressures on Bears quarterback Caleb Williams two weeks ago. Others must fill in if the Packers want to maintain their image as a playoff contender.

It's a big loss for our defense, for our team, but the next guy [has] got to step up so it is what it is," Packers safety Xavier McKinney said. I mean, the season ain't over. We still got work to do."