Will Week 15's unexpected fantasy football playoff heroes deliver again?
Football analyst Matt Harmon breaks down the Week 16 outlooks for the somewhat random players who went off in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Kyle Pitts Sr. (@ Arizona Cardinals)The Week 15 version of Kyle Pitts Sr. was the stuff of legends. It wasn't just, by far, the best game of Pitts' career; it was one of the best performances we've ever seen from a tight end in recent memory.
Kyle Pitts just had the best fantasy football game in half PPR scoring for a TE since at least the year 2000 pic.twitter.com/76v7kHl1Nn
- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 12, 2025
One narrative that I want to push back on is that this was some random eruption for Pitts; that's just not true. In fact, Pitts had been building to this moment over the previous three weeks. From Weeks 12 to 14, Pitts led all tight ends with a 29.1% target share. He trailed only the great Trey McBride in targets and receiving yards; he just hadn't scored any touchdowns. He did so in bulk order in Week 15.
The question now is about stability. Much of that comes down to the availability of Drake London. It's no coincidence that Pitts' ascension has directly overlapped with London's absence while dealing with a PCL injury. London returned to practice on Wednesday, but head coach Raheem Morris stressed it's no guarantee London plays in Week 16.
Pitts has taken 44% of his snaps on passing plays from the slot in these last four games and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He's averaging 6.9 yards after the catch per reception, up from 3.8 in Weeks 1 to 11. There is a lot of overlap in the ways you want to optimally deploy Pitts and London as big slot options who can rumble after the catch. That's why it's been difficult - beyond the fact that Pitts hasn't always been healthy the last few seasons - for both to go off at once.
If London is out again in Week 16, Pitts is a top-five-ranked tight end. Should London return, I doubt he'll be 100% off the PCL injury, so that is enough for Pitts to remain a fantasy starter. I just won't expect anything close to the nuclear-level production we got in Week 15.
Kenneth Gainwell (@ Detroit Lions)Much like Pitts above, Kenneth Gainwell has been trending towards a big game like the one he had in Week 15 for quite some time. Gainwell owns a massive role in the Steelers' passing offense.
Target per route run leaders this season (min 150 routes run) and the only players north of 26%.
- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 17, 2025
This is also known as the "Kenneth Gainwell is Aaron Rodgers' favorite player" stat. pic.twitter.com/z7kJeQjNUS
It's been clear for some time that Gainwell is clearly in Aaron Rodgers' circle of trust. He values his presence on the field and is quick to look for him in checkdown situations. He confirmed this with some comments after Week 15:
Aaron Rodgers has loved Kenny Gainwell since he was on the Eagles & shocked Steelers signed him for next to nothing
- Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) December 16, 2025
I love playing with him. He's as smart as they come. I still can not believe what we got him for. I told him a long time ago my goal was to get him paid" pic.twitter.com/YchK3vwFvl
Gainwell is one of three running backs to lead his team in catches this season, the others being Christian McCaffrey and De'Von Achane. Not bad company for Gainwell. In an upcoming matchup with a Lions team that will push Pittsburgh to increase its pass attempts, Gianwell is once again in a spot where he could catch a ton of passes. This is a situation I wouldn't mind chasing the Week 15 results one bit.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)With Chris Rodriguez Jr. sidelined, Bill was back in our lives. The seventh-round rookie who was the talk of August hype circles handled 18 carries in Week 15, the most he's seen this season. He was able to run all over a Giants rush defense that's been a problem all year. The Commanders won a game for the first time since Week 5, so game script was also in Bill's favor.
Bill's ability to do it again will all come down to the availability of Rodriguez. Even if, for whatever reason, the team elevates the rookie ahead of Rodriquez, who has been the lead back for weeks now, a three-way split between these two and Jeremy McNichols is too problematic. Not to mention, while the Eagles' run defense - who the Commanders will see in Week 16 - has had its gaffs, they are much better than the Giants' front.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (vs. Minnesota Vikings)Tyrone Tracy was the Giants' clear lead back coming out of the Week 14 bye and ended up being the fifth-best back in fantasy last week. He led the team with 18 touches and played on 76% of the snaps. However, he did lose goal-line work to Devin Singletary in resounding fashion.
Tyrone Tracy had the big game but he still isn't being used as the goal line back
- Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) December 16, 2025
Singletary played all for snaps inside the 10 in Week 15 and split one of two carries with Jaxson Dart
Tracy remains a big play threat only to score TDs
Data via @FantasyPtsData
That didn't matter in Week 15 because Tracy was able to hit big plays against a Commanders defense that's been hapless all season. The Vikings are a bit more of a ticky matchup to figure out.
Minnesota allows teams to move the ball down the field in the run game, as it ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed to running backs since Week 10. Its 4.0 yards per carry allowed is rather middle of the pack and it generally doesn't give up long gashes. With all that in mind, if Tracy still doesn't have goal-line work locked down, he's more of a solid RB2 than an RB1, despite his big Week 15 showing.
Troy Franklin (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)Troy Franklin has had his moments this season, but has been trending down over the last month with rookie Pat Bryant emerging, particularly since the Broncos came back from their Week 12 bye. With Bryant on the shelf last week, Franklin turned in his best game in quite some time, catching all six targets for 85 yards and a score.
Franklin actually ran fewer routes on the day than Lil' Jordan Humphrey, who was signed off the Giants' practice squad in November, last week. The key for Franklin was getting back into the slot. Bryant had taken over the slot role coming out of the bye because he gives them more size and physicality at that spot. Franklin can play outside but has more ability to rip big plays as a speed slot.
The Broncos already face a tough matchup in Week 16 against a sneaky good Jaguars defense. If Bryant is back in the mix for Denver, I'd find Franklin quite difficult to trust.
DJ Moore (vs. Green Bay Packers)DJ Moore saw no noticeable bump in Week 14 when Rome Odunze missed a game with a foot injury he's been playing through this season. The story was quite different in Week 15, when Odunze was ruled out at the last minute and Moore went on to catch two touchdowns.
Against the Browns, Moore set a season-high with 2.3 yards per route, three end-zone targets and a 37.9% air yard share. However, he was only targeted on 16.7% of his routes, which was his seventh-highest mark of the season. Credit to Moore for converting on his opportunities, especially on the insane Caleb Williams across-the-field throw into the end zone. We just didn't see a noticeable bump in his involvement.
It's felt like a struggle for Moore to get consistently involved in this attack all season. He just doesn't really fit the offense and has lost opportunities to younger developing guys like Odunze and Luther Burden in the receiver room. With both of those guys listed as DNP in early practices this week, Moore could see a bump in his workload by default. Even in that scenario, he'd still be just a volatile WR3 in a tough matchup with the Packers in Week 16.
Colby Parkinson (@ Seattle Seahawks)The Rams' move to more 13 personnel this season has been a significant talking point in discussions about the team's success. For good reason! It's been both interesting and effective.
In the last two weeks, the Rams' offense has gone from "13 personnel is a cool thing we do as a secondary personnel grouping" to "this is our base offense, you are too small, press X to forfeit" pic.twitter.com/MC61lFIFuH
- Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 15, 2025
One of the big winners from the shift to that alignment has been Colby Parkinson. Ever since Tyler Higbee was placed on IR after Week 11, Parkinson has been a mainstay for the Rams because he can both block and catch passes from multiple alignments. Since Week 12, Parkinson leads all tight ends and wide receivers on the team with a 72% snap rate, is third in route participation and has caught four touchdowns.
With Davante Adams most likely out in Week 16 and Higbee not yet ready to come off IR, Parkinson is once again in line for a big opportunity. Given all the variables, he's going to be a top-10-ranked player at the position for me.
However, it's worth noting that Seattle is one of the few teams that have been able to keep the Rams from printing efficient plays out of 13 personnel.
You will hear a lot about the Rams 13 personnel (3 TE) package this week, and for good reason. There is one team that defended it pretty well pic.twitter.com/gGZieOmgSd
- Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) December 16, 2025
Nevertheless, Parkinson, who did score against this team back in Week 11, is in a solid spot. The Seahawks rank third, first and first in 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers - but 18th against tight ends. We sometimes see this with great defenses, where they are content to cede production to this position, relative to their strengths elsewhere.