Seahawks vs. Rams odds, predictions: Best bets, player-prop wagers for Thursday Night Football

This is one of the toughest Thursday Night Football previews I have written this season, because the largest looming factor over this game is the weather report.

All week there has been a projected 90% chance of rain in Seattle. The biggest move in the betting market has been on the game total, dropping from an opener of 45.5 all the way down to 42 now. I was lucky enough to identify this in my Tuesday article and recommend an under 44.5.

But at this point in the betting cycle - and truthfully at this point in the betting legalization era - sportsbooks have gotten incredibly sharp when it comes to factoring in weather conditions. The expected sustained wind of 13 mph with gusts north of 20 mph is priced into everything from the game lines to the passing and kicking player props. It is fantastic to be a frontrunner of weather news, but it is hard to still find value once the information is known.

Therefore, my strongest recommendation is not to go big with your bets on this game. The books are adjusting hourly based on forecast changes, which for us non-meteorologists, is an information and pricing disadvantage. Instead of going through the normal spread, total, and prop context I normally apply, I will stick to what I consider four still-actionable angles.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.

1. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet

The game total has plummeted because of the rain, and the spread has moved toward the home Seahawks as the seemingly sharp side. Perhaps the best way to attack this is in the player prop market on Charbonnet.

Charbonnet is the more traditional power back alongside explosive playmaker and starting RB Kenneth Walker. While Walker is likely to be the guy out there on the first play as the designated starter, surprisingly, Charbonnet has played a higher percentage of snaps in six of the 13 games these two have both played this season. The workload is a near equal split - and this spot could be better fit for Charbonnet.

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The defense is going to know the run is coming, and the offense is going to be predicated less on breaking a big explosive play, but a slow churn of steady yardage. Right now Charbonnet is projected to have three fewer rush attempts and 15 more yards. This may be an inefficiency in the betting market. The first two late-week bets into this market are the overs on Charbonnet's rush attempts and yardage. I also don't mind going under on Walker.

Bet: Zach Charbonnet over 9.5 rush attempts (+100), over 32.5 rush yards (-115)

2. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

In the same vein of fading the amount of explosive plays generated in this game, looking toward Smith-Njigba - Seattle's emerging superstar - is a must. If the rain is pouring in, and perhaps more pertinently the wind is howling, the defenses are going to continue to bring pressure on Sam Darnold and the run game. Let's hope Darnold is not seeing ghosts" out there.

The ability to generate deeper pass plays, where Darnold has to hold onto the ball longer as Smith-Njigba works downfield, and then has to mitigate wind factors to deliver the right throw, is significantly lessened. In the betting market we have seen Smith-Njigba's longest reception number drop from 28.5 to 26.5. BetMGM is still holding onto that under-28.5, so that has to be a grab as well. A likely positive closing line value prop spot if the weather forecast holds.

Bet: Jaxson Smith-Njigba longest reception under 28.5 yards

3. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

Interested in a +EV longshot? Let's look at Darnold. Since it's clear that Seattle is the sharper side, and we know the Rams are without their best red zone wide receiver in Davante Adams, the Seahawks are the target for touchdown markets. Darnold surprisingly has some wheels and sneaky athleticism. If Darnold can escape pressure, he is a candidate to run one in. There is not too much sophistication and overthinking that can go into this; it's a long shot, but comparing it to the rest of the market it does have an edge.

Bet: Sam Darnold first TD scorer (80-1)

4. Rams WR Puka Nacua

This is a bet on top-tier talent in the NFL - an MVP-caliber QB in Matthew Stafford and perhaps an Offensive Player of the Year in Nacua. With the weather conditions, the game total dropping and the Seahawks being the sharp side, I believe we are getting a discount on Puka Nacua props.

On top of the division and conference standing implications of this game, Stafford seems to be playing for an MVP trophy to cap off a Hall of Fame career. Since Stafford entered the MVP conversation, his pass attempts have soared. The last five weeks for Stafford have seen a higher volume of pass attempts when compared against the beginning or middle of the NFL season to date. Factor in the loss of Adams and a short week to work out proper game-planning with the other weapons, and Stafford is going to rely heavily on Nacua.

Bet: Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions (-140)