FLEX Finder Week 16: The Beginning of Silly Season

If you haven't watched it as closely as I have, one thing I want to alert you to is: It's silly season.

It might be the fantasy semifinals for most of you, but for several NFL teams, it is time to park the car in the garage. Give Brady Cook some extra starts. See what Quinn Ewers can do. Be forced to start Gardner Minshew because the best quarterback in the league sacrificed his knee ligaments trying to keep your terrible season alive. Things of that nature.

That opens a lot more uncertainty than usual. It's a terrible time to have established players tied to those guys. And for someone writing this column, it's a wonderful time, because the FLEX options have only grown. Welcome to the final three weeks of the NFL season, where several teams are just making things up and the fantasy points are real if we figure out what they're drawing.

Column rules:

1) I will not recommend quarterbacks -you're on your own there.

2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 inDraftKings' DFS Slate- I just figured this was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.

3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column - anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let's set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.

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Running BacksRhamondre Stevenson, NE - $5,000

I understand putting Stevenson on this tier from the perspective of "TreVeyon Henderson looks much better than him," but I am a little confused as to how he wound up here on the pure underlying metrics. Stevenson has played 58.5 percent of the snaps and 67.3 percent of the snaps in Week 13 and 15 after being eased back following his toe injury. Stevenson hasn't scored, but Henderson is playing almost none of the short-yardage plays.

The Ravens are favored to win this game in a "Vegas Knows" line - it doesn't add up to the reality of the situation on paper, so you start to wonder what exactly it knows. I see a Baltimore run defense that gave up a combined 27/95 to Chase Brown and Samaje Perine, as well as a Patriots team that knows it needs to keep winning to stay in the AFC East race. Mike Vrabel has proved over and over again that he trusts Stevenson, and I bet he'll give a heavy dose of him on Sunday as well.

Kyle Monangai, CHI - $4,900

Another 1B back placement that I'm not sure I agree with. D'Andre Swift had big production against the Browns, yes, but Monangai wasn't going to score a touchdown every game after doing it four weeks in a row. He still has been given 25 carries over the last two games. The Bears will likely be without Rome Odunze and could be without Luther Burden on Saturday, and they already spent Week 14 telling you that they believed the best path for victory against the Packers was running the ball.

I don't quite think of Monangai as a smash play, but I think he's got great touchdown equity in a game without Micah Parsons that the Bears absolutely need to stay on top of the NFC North.

Tyler Allgeier, ATL - $4,700

In Atlanta's comfortable wins this year (Week 2, Week 6, Week 12), Allgeier has averaged 12.6 carries and scored twice while adding 48 rushing yards per game on the ground. I know he's coming off a low-carry game as the Falcons had to chase down the Buccaneers from behind. That's why the price is what it is. But if you believe the Falcons can keep the Cardinals in check on offense - and I do believe that, the Falcons have been a reasonable pass defense this year and Michael Carter does not scare me - you get a defense that has allowed 40-plus points in four of its last six games and a game script that heavily screams "Tyler Allgeier game." Even if we don't quite get that and it's a close back-and-forth affair, Allgeier has plenty of touchdown equity and the Falcons have a reason to limit Bjian Robinson's workload since their season is over.

Keaton Mitchell, BAL - $4,100

Sure seems like Mitchell is the most explosive back the Ravens have. The Patriots are fresh off a game where they allowed 168 rushing yards to James Cook and company, and have not looked like the same run defense with Robert Spillane and Milton Williams missing most of the last few weeks. I get that the Ravens are going to use Derrick Henry plenty, but as far as a DFS punt that I think could go off this week, it's hard to not get excited about Mitchell putting up 10.1 yards per rush attempt in his last three games. Zach Krueger is about to sue the column for taking his bit.

Matthew Berry's Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 16 of 2025 seasonJalen Hurts, De'Von Achane, Puka Nacua, and Trey McBride highlight the positional rankings for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.

• Matthew Berry,

Wide receiversAdonai Mitchell, NYJ - $4,500

Over the past four weeks, Mitchell has alternated duds and WR3 performances, averaging out to a line of 4.3/56.5/0.5 over the four games while being thrown passes by actual quarterbacks Tyrod Taylorand Brady Cook.I was skittish on Mitchell last week because I was not sure that Cook would wind up qualifying as one of these, and while a 22-of-33, 176-yard performance isn't great, Cook also didn't go full-bore Justin Fields.

Stacked in a matchup against a Saints defense that does a decent job against the run, Mitchell should get his weekly 6-to-10 targets again. What comes out of those targets feels shaky and RNG-laden, but that's why he's on the FLEX line instead of priced at $5,500.

Malik Washington, MIA -- $3,800

I know, I know: Why? Washington has been a low ceiling PPR schlub for the entirety of the season. But I'm a little optimistic that we can see more with Quinn Ewers under center. Three of Ewers' eight attempts in Week 7 went Washington's way, a game in which Washington led the Dolphins in targets. If Ewers is happy to check it down, Washington could see more and more opportunities to PPR scam for the good guys. Last I checked, that could be your fantasy team. The Bengals are, uh, also an enticing team to target.

Jalen McMillan, TB - $3,800

We knew that Tampa's wideout rotation would change with Mike Evans back, what I don't think we properly prepared for was how much McMillan's return would impact things. He played 46.4 percent of the snaps from the jump and cut into Emeka Egbuka's target share and playing time quite a bit.

Then there's this Jeremy Fowler note that reads: "Emeka Egbuka has hit the proverbial rookie wall, so don't be surprised if McMillan's profile grows." Well, how much growth can be found here right away? The Panthers are not an intimidating pass defense to stream against, and you get McMillan at a very reasonable price here.

Pat Bryant, DEN - $3,700 (or Lil'Jordan Humphrey, $3,100)

Bryant missed last week's game with a hamstring ailment, so consider Humphrey my stand-in for the Sunday crew if Bryant can't go. The thing is: The Denver offense needs somebody of this size profile as things currently stand. Humphrey ate up snaps against the Packers last week en route to a 3/42/1 receiving line. He did 3/27 against the Raiders in Week 14 while Bryant was playing.

The Jaguars? They remain a pass funnel. The Jets cracked 130 rushing yards on the ground against them, but only with Cook scrambling six times for 39 yards and Isaiah Davis up to 9/58/1 in garbage time. The Jaguars thoroughly handled Breece Hall. I like the Broncos to need to throw plenty this week, and one of these two should be a big part of the game plan now that Marvin Mims and Evan Engram are known non-factors.

Jalen Nailor, MIN - $3,500

Do you hate having Justin Jefferson in your fantasy lineups? What if I told you that you could get the guy that J.J. McCarthy actually likes throwing to? That's right folks, Jalen Nailor has eight targets over the past two games along with two touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday night. "Ah, well it was a good matchup," you might be saying - and you're right, analytics will tell us to target the Cowboys.

But they'll also tell us to target the Giants, who the Vikings are playing in Week 16. I sort of think this will trend towards a Minnesota blowout, but they are only three-point favorites. And no matter what the Vikings do with their three remaining meaningless games, they need to have a verdict on what they think McCarthy can and can't do. So I do think there will be throwing. And what better spot than here? And he's cheap enough to make for a nice punt. Why be upset that Jefferson has been a fantasy wasteland when you could simply play someone who might give you some joy?

Matthew Stafford, Rashee Rice, DJ Moore highlight Week 16's Regression FilesA deep dive into which players are running unsustainably hot or cold headed into Week 16, and what it might mean for your start-sit decisions.

• Denny Carter,

Tight endsDarren Waller, MIA - $3,500

Did the Bengals finally fix their problems against tight ends? They held Mark Andrews to 2/18 and shut out Isaiah Likely from the box score entirely. All of that looks really incredible until you understand that the Ravens only threw the ball 12 times total.

So, yeah, I'm not banking on that being real. Waller is unbelievably cheap despite his 7/66/2 game against the Steelers on Monday night. He unretired for one reason, and that's to put up 15 fantasy points on the Bengals in a meaningless December game. Let's go.

Juwan Johnson, NO - $4,000

DeVaughn Vele's absence this week leaves the Saints looking at a wideout room of Chris Olave and, uh, Kevin Austin while Mason Tipton mixes in. Yes, it's as bad as it sounds. Meanwhile, Johnson has quietly garnered a real and reliable role here and the Saints get a Jets defense that somehow allowed Trevor Lawrenceto score six touchdowns.

I do expect the Jets to bring some better coverage play this week after that abomination, one that forced them to fire Steve Wilks as defensive coordinator. Still, it's a volume play. And a volume play in a situation where the main Saints running backs might end up being Audric Estime and Evan Hull. The Saints will ask Tyler Shough to do the heavy lifting this week and Johnson should be a main beneficiary.