Polymarket Refuses To Pay Bets That US Would 'Invade' Venezuela

Polymarket is disputing that the mission to capture Nicolas Maduro constituted an invasion and said it will only settle a prediction contract if the US military takes control of Venezuelan territory. From a report: The decision by the prediction market has angered gamblers and added to the controversy surrounding a successful wager on the timing of Maduro's capture that netted more than $400,000 in winnings for a mystery trader. The dispute over the definition of "invade" highlights just one of the controversies faced by the mostly unregulated industry. Polymarket -- which only recently gained regulatory approval to operate legally in the US -- says on its website that it will resolve the "Will the US invade Venezuela by ... ?" contract if the US "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela" by one of three dates. "The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources," it adds. Prediction platforms such as Polymarket do not typically make directional wagers in their own markets. Rather, they act as an intermediary matching long and short positions and adjudicating the outcome of events, collecting a fee in the process.

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