2026 NFL offseason preview: Kansas City Chiefs don't feel inevitable anymore and face a huge few months

The NFL offseason has begun, and Yahoo Sports is previewing the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency through the draft and more.

AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North:Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East:Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South:Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West:Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs

2025 season record: 6-11 (u 11.5 wins), third in AFC West, missed playoffs, 15th in DVOA

Overview

The Chiefs were always expected to push through, turn their season around, and make it to the playoffs ... until they didn't. For much of the 2025 season, Kansas City ran on the complete opposite side of variance as the 2024 team. Those two teams played the same number of games that were decided by seven or fewer points. In 2024, the Chiefs went 10-0. In 2025? A league-worst 1-9.

Some metrics suggested this team was even better than the one last season that made it to the Super Bowl. In games started by Patrick Mahomes this year, the Chiefs averaged more points per drive and scored at a higher rate on drives than they did in 2024. Yet, the offense always felt off, and the weight of putting everything on the quarterback's shoulders on third downs and in the fourth quarter was too much to repeat.

In a normal season, this might have been just a small step back for a perennial Super Bowl contender - a chance to regroup and go again. But given Travis Kelce's age and the late-season ACL tear for Patrick Mahomes, and now grave domestic violence allegations against Rashee Rice, this feels like a bigger moment - the end of an era of this version of the Chiefs. It might not be, but for the first time in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs don't feel inevitable. This offseason will be the first and an important step in trying to get that feeling back.

Cap/cuts outlook

No team will head into the offseason with less salary cap space than the Chiefs, with -$66 million in effective space, per Over The Cap. That looks way worse than it is because Patrick Mahomes has a $78 million cap hit that will either be restructured or lowered with a new contract. Restructuring Mahomes could free up $44 million, and doing so to Chris Jones would open another $22 million. While Jawaan Taylor was not nearly the biggest of Kansas City's problems when he was on the field, it's hard to imagine the Chiefs holding onto him, given moving on from the veteran would free up $20 million in cap space.

Key pending free agents

TE Travis Kelce
CB Jaylen Watson
CB Joshua Williams
S Bryan Cook
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR Marquise Brown
RB Kareem Hunt

Kelce is a free agent in name only. He either retires or he's back with the Chiefs for one more year. After a down 2024, Kelce looked better in 2025, improving his yards per route run and yards after the catch from the previous season.

Watson, Williams and Cook are a trio of defensive backs drafted in 2022. Trent McDuffie is a fourth, playing on his fifth-year option. All three have played meaningful roles for the Chiefs and it's unlikely that all three will be back. Watson was the best of the bunch (16th among corners in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap), but the Chiefs have not shied away from letting defensive backs leave and getting younger and cheaper at the position - Charvarius Ward and L'Jarius Sneed are recent examples.

Positional needs

Edge
Wide receiver
Offensive line
Running back

The pass rush just hasn't been a reliable piece of the Kansas City defense. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones made up for 56.5% of the Chiefs' pressures during the regular season. Kansas City has toyed around with different players in the edge spot opposite Karlaftis in the past, but the Chiefs should make finding a permanent solution a main priority this offseason.

Adding a real receiver could do wonders for the passing game. Deep threats such as Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton can add only so much when there's not much else to occupy the defense's attention across the rest of the field. The Chiefs have tried to replace Tyreek Hill's speed, but have ignored the understanding of the position, he had on top of the unprecedented speed.

The Chiefs can feel good about Josh Simmons at left tackle and Creed Humphrey at center, but the other three spots on the o-line could use improvement, especially if Jawaan Taylor is released. The Chiefs lacked an explosive run game and that's where a running back could come in, too. Kansas City ranked 23rd in yards before contact per running back carry, but ranked a respectable 14th in success rate. However, the Chiefs had the least explosive rushing offense with just 6.5% of running back carries that went for 10 or more yards. Bigger holes with a more explosive back could be a game-changing combination.

2026 NFL Draft picks

1st round, pick No. 9
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
5th round
5th round (projected compensatory)

Good draft fit

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

The Chiefs could in many directions in the back half of the top 10, but why not go full-measure and add the best running back in the draft? Love is a strong runner with good vision who can throttle between speeds and has home-run ability. He's also good at setting up his blocks and staying balanced. Imagine him playing with Mahomes.

What could move the fantasy needle in 2026?

Look in the mirror

Back in November, I wrote a long piece detailing what's gone wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs on offense this season and why those structural problems are big. Their season got only worse since that moment and I stand on everything written in that article - no need to regurgitate it. The issue is that there is no quick fix for any of that and Step 1 requires a significant look in the mirror" moment by the folks who have built what's been the defining NFL team of the last decade.

If we're looking for clues as to whether Andy Reid and Co. have the awareness needed to proceed to the next steps, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is a free agent this offseason and his status will tell us a lot. By no means do I think Nagy is some kind of boogeyman and his removal will fix everything. Rather, what the Chiefs do at offensive coordinator next season will indicate if they think some changes in vision are needed (they are) or if it's a run-it-all-back type of deal. - Matt Harmon

Betting nugget

Not only did the Chiefs fail to make the playoffs for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career, but Kansas City finished well under its preseason win total of 11.5. The Chiefs (6-10-1 ATS) also finished with their worst record against the spread since 2012. - Ben Fawkes