Patriots-Chargers NFL playoffs wild-card betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets for Patriots-Chargers

The AFC East champion New England Patriots will host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, the first time that the Patriots will host a playoff game since 2020.

Patriots QB Drake Maye could be the 2025-26 NFL MVP, and he'll face a banged-up Justin Herbert and a Chargers team without its top two tackles on the offensive line. However, Los Angeles does have a better defense than New England. Will it be enough to upset the Patriots?

Here is insight from oddsmakers for the game, and our team of NFL handicappers provides its favorite wagers.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Other playoff games

Rams-Panthers | Packers-Bears | Bills-Jags | 49ers-Eagles | Chargers-Patriots | Texans-Steelers

No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 2 New England Patriots (-3.5, 45.5)

What oddsmakers are saying

"No line movement in this one. We've seen very good two-way action at Patriots -3.5. Total has ticked up from 45.5 to 46. With this game being the final game on Sunday night, they'll be plenty of parlays tied to the Patriots." - Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata

"Chargers made their own bye week last week in anticipation for this game. We opened Patriots -4, now sitting -3.5. Seeing a little more Chargers money on spread and moneyline at this point, as well a little bit of under money. A little surprising to see the Chargers getting the action going into a cold-weather scenario. We'll see a little more Patriots money come game day." - Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets

Matt Russell: It's the playoffs, where the operative term is figure it out." The Chargers' ceiling for advancement is likely capped due to an offensive line that is two steps away from having slightly more resistance than a turnstile to get on the T," but they don't have to face the defensive front of the Broncos or Texans this week. Instead, it's the Patriots - without top-50 pass-rusher by PFF grade - whom the Chargers can work around to buy time for Justin Herbert.

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Against the Eagles and Chiefs (and maybe the Texans, if Cameron Dicker converted kicks at his usual rate), L.A. did just enough offensively. If they can do a little more than that against a New England defense that hasn't faced much in the way of top, in-their-prime quarterbacks (Josh Allen twice, and a half-game of Lamar Jackson), then that should put some rare game-script pressure on Drake Maye. The Chargers' pass defense, operated by Jesse Minter, has vexed even the best, turnover-averse quarterbacks this season.

Mike Vrabel ended the regular season as the favorite for Coach of the Year, but Jim Harbaugh and his staff is every bit as capable of matching wits in what should be a close game.

Bet: Chargers +3.5

Matt Jacob: A year ago at this time, Chargers QB Justin Herbert had just completed a sensational regular season in which he threw 23 touchdowns and a league-low three interceptions.

Then Herbert traveled to Houston for a wild-card game and, well, let's just say it didn't go well. Of the 32 passes he launched, four landed in the hands of the Texans.

Indeed, Herbert threw more interceptions against Houston than he did in 17 regular-season games (and 504 attempts).

To Herbert's credit, he put that debacle behind him and played error-free in the Chargers' first two games of 2025. In fact, Herbert threw 74 passes to start the season before getting picked off.

Since then, however, the 2020 first-round selection has been firing the football to the opposition with regularity. From Week 3 until his final start in Week 17, Herbert threw 13 picks, including at least one in 11 of 14 games.

Which brings me to Sunday night's clash in New England. Granted, the Patriots only had 10 interceptions (tied for 11th-fewest in the NFL). But because of what happened to Herbert in Houston a year ago - and because the Chargers' offensive line continues to be in shambles - I have no doubt Patriots coach (and former linebacker) Mike Vrabel will bring the house early and often.

Eventually, that pressure will lead Herbert to do what he's done most of this season - throw a ball he shouldn't. And I'm betting the Patriots get their hands on it.

Bet: Justin Herbert over 0.5 INTs (-125)